In my ever increasing attempts to rid the fantasy baseball landscape of broad paint brush stroke analysis on batting average on balls in play, I bring you “The BABIP Monologues.”

Justin Verlander and the Myth of Bad Luck

Justin Verlander has been quite awful this season in terms of ERA and walk rate. Justin sports a 3.90 ERA, accompanied by a .329 xFIP and 2.86 FIP; the Fielder Independent Pitching metric coming in at 2.86 is Justin’s lowest since his peak season of 2009. Let’s compare these two seasons on a broader scale.

*Highest of career or best of career (BB/9, BABIP)

** Second highest of career (BB/9, BB%, BABIP, ERA

+Best of career (K/9, K%, FIP)

++ Second best of career (K/9, K%, FIP, xFIP)

The easy way out here would be to say “Verlander’s skills remain near his peak levels, although his walk rate is the second highest of his career, it looks like he’s mostly just been unlucky.”

Let’s look at Verlander’s pitch data so far this season; since Verlander’s velocity drop has been one of his most documented problems, we’ll examine his fastball.

*In this context, strikeout percentage refers to “of the number of at-bats ending in a fastball, how often did it result in a strikeout?”

The most notable takeaway from this table is the three-year increasing trend of batting average against, slugging, and batting average on balls in play on the fastball. This is not a knock against Verlander, it makes sense given his aging pattern and the fact that he’s thrown an incredible number of innings over the past five seasons (1000+).

This is still not enough though, and it does not fully highlight the true problems Verlander is having with his fastball.

For Major League Baseball players, except Adam Dunn of course, the goal when you get a fastball depends on what the count is. When ahead in the count, the goal is to look for a fastball to drive for an extra base hit/home run. With two strikes, the goal is to look for a pitch to handle and poke it for a base hit.

Obviously Verlander’s BABIP on two strike fastballs won’t continue at this level; however, it bears noting that if we recall the goal of a batter with regards to a fastball when the pitcher is behind, and when the batter has two strikes, it seems as if batters are becoming more successful against Verlander.

For this next exercise, I will count all extra base hits Verlander allows when he is behind in the count, all hits on the first pitch, and all singles with two strikes as “failures”. All recorded outs will count as successes. Once again this is on the fastball; in addition, I will count all walks issued on the fastball but make those a function of plate appearances.

*Consider the leniency given by not counting singles when behind in the count as a failure.

Still think it’s more a case of bad luck given the two strike astronomically high BABIP?

Sometimes there’s more to an increased walk rate than meets the eye. In Verlander’s case, it shows that his command has flopped (possibly his consistency with his delivery). Verlander’s ability to use the fastball as a go-to pitch has decreased markedly. His fastballs are being obliterated when he’s behind in the count and batters are handling his fastball on 0-2 counts, resulting in a 61% success rate on out making ability on counts when he is either behind or at two strikes. The reason I handpicked those scenarios is because they are the source of the biggest splits.

Verlander is generating seven percent fewer swings on his fastball, six percent fewer foul balls (which is a function of how well a batter is timing it), and six percent fewer swings and misses. In addition, Verlander is also having five percent more of his two strike fastballs put into play for an overall BABIP of .455 on such pitches. That’s not bad luck, it’s an ineffective fastball. That plus his .415 ISO allowed on his fastball when he’s behind in the count or is throwing it as the first pitch is combining to give him that 3.72 ERA he has earned.

And it’s not just his fastball, here’s a look at all his pitches with strikes the last two years:

Verlander’s ERA is not guaranteed to come down because his xFIP, FIP and strikeout to walk ratios tell us so. He must become more effective with his fastball and or mix in more of his excellent off-speed pitches. He has not been unlucky, his fastball is fat and hitters are timing it perfectly (as evidenced by corresponding pop-up rate decline, line drive rate increase, decreased foul ball percentage and decreased whiff rate). So if you go out and trade for him, realize that you’re inheriting more risk than you realize. He may be hurt, he may be in a cold streak mechanically, but he is not unlucky.