Southwest Division

Team: San Antonio Spurs

Last Season Record: 58-24

Key Fantasy Additions: None

Key Fantasy Losses: None

2013 Draft Picks: For fantasy purposes, none.

Team Overview: The Spurs turned in one of their most impressive seasons of the Duncan era last season, nearly winning title No. 5 in the process. Tony Parker’s 52.2 FG% and 84.5 FT% were career-bests, and he was the only point guard to score 20+ points and have 7.5 assists per game. His minutes might dip a bit, but the efficiency and assists will still be there. Danny Green’s 59.9 true shooting percentage was third-best among qualified shooting guards, and he finished 11th in 3PM. He played 32 minutes a game in the playoffs, when he made 55 3s. His role will only expand this year. Among shooting guards, Green was joined by just Nic Batum and Paul George with at least 2.2 3PM, 1.2 steals and 0.6 blocks.

Tim Duncan had one of the best years of his career last year, posting numbers similar to his glory days (although you could argue he’s still in his glory days). The 37-year-old doesn’t have a weak spot, although his career-best FT% could come back down. Until we see a noticeable decline, keep drafting him early. Tiago Splitter saw a career-high in minutes per game to go along with a career-high FG% and FT%. He doesn’t have much upside as his offensive game is limited and he’s usually the fifth option on the floor. But he’s a good pick in the late rounds as he’ll give you close to a block and a steal per game.

Pressing Questions: How good can Kawhi Leonard be? The 22-year-old did well in his sophomore season, but still has room to improve. He was one of just four small forward to average 1.7 steals a game with 1.1 3PM despite playing fewer minutes than the others. Leonard played very well in the postseason, and against Miami shot 51 percent with 14 points, 11 boards, 1.1 3PM and 1.8 steals. His game should go even higher this season so take him in the fifth round.

Sleeper: Splitter

Breakout Candidate: Leonard, Green

Rebound Candidate: None

Bust Candidate: Manu Ginobli – The 36-year-old played 23 minutes a game last year, the lowest since his rookie year. His shooting was the worst it’s been in nine years, too. He can still contribute in steals and assists, but so can a lot of people later in the draft who have more upside than Ginobli. It’s better to just leave him off your team this season.

Depth Chart:

Point guard	Tony Parker	Cory Joseph	Patty Mills
Shooting guard	Danny Green	Manu Ginobli	Marco Belinelli
Small forward	Kawhi Leonard
Power forward	Tim Duncan	Boris Diaw
Center	Tiago Splitter	Matt Bonner

 

Team: Memphis Grizzlies

Last Season Record: 56-26

Key Fantasy Additions: None

Key Fantasy Losses: None

2013 Draft Picks: Jamaal Franklin

Team Overview: In Memphis it’s pretty cut and dry when it comes to fantasy talk. Mike Conley has improved very steadily since his rookie year in 2007. Last year he posted career-highs in points per 40 minutes, true shooting, and usage rate, as well as 3PM. After the Rudy Gay trade Conley’s points, assists and rebounds increased, while his turnovers went down. Take him as soon as early in the third round.

Marc Gasol isn’t flashy, but he’s one of the best players for your squad. He doesn’t have a weakness, and only he and Joakim Noah had at least four assists, one steal and 1.7 blocks a game last year. He can be the anchor of your team and is worthy of a late first-round pick. In deep leagues Ed Davis is worth a late-round flier as he should be the first big off the bench and has been productive as a starter in the past. Jerryd Bayless did pretty well after the Gay trade so he can be a late-round pick, too.

Pressing Questions: Can Zach Randolph keep producing? Randolph put up a 15 and 11 last year, but didn’t produce anywhere else. He’s shooting at the rim less than before, and his turnovers last year were a four-year high. After the All-Star break last year Randolph’s shooting fell to 43 percent, and even in the postseason he only shot 46 percent. Randolph will still put up close to if not a double-double this season, but there are several warning signs that should keep you away from drafting him too high. If Ryan Anderson, Kevin Garnett or Nik Pekovic is still out there when it’s your turn take one of those guys who can help you in more categories while still providing points and boards, too.

Sleeper: Davis

Breakout Candidate: Mike Conley

Rebound Candidate: None

Bust Candidate: Tayshaun Prince

Depth Chart:

Point guard	Mike Conley	Jerryd Bayless
Shooting guard	Tony Allen	Mike Miller	Jamaal Franklin
Small forward	Tayshaun Prince	Quincy Pondexter
Power forward	Zach Randolph	Ed Davis
Center	Marc Gasol	Kosta Koufos

 

Team: Houston Rockets

Last Season Record: 45-37

Key Fantasy Additions: Dwight Howard

Key Fantasy Losses: Carlos Delfino

2013 Draft Picks: Isaiah Canaan

Team Overview: Houston offers a very fantasy-friendly roster. James Harden is an easy top-five pick, and you can make the case he’s No. 3. The acquisition of Howard shouldn’t hurt Harden at all; it should help him by creating more space on the floor for him to operate, as well as giving him a better offensive player to work with other than Omer Asik. Chandler Parsons had a very good sophomore season and will be undervalued in drafts. The small forward can hit the three and keep up a good field goal percentage. Among small forwards last year who scored at least 15 points Parsons was the only player to shoot over 48 percent while making at least 2 3’s a game.

Jeremy Lin quietly had a decent follow-up to Linsanity in his first year in Houston. He should put up similar numbers and if you go big-heavy early in the draft he’ll be an OK consolation prize. However, there have been rumors that Lin could lose time to Patrick Beverley, who’s a much better defender than Lin, and/or come off the bench, probably decreasing his minutes a bit. Don’t rely on him as a top-two point guard for your team, but he still should be alright due to his surroundings. Howard is severely underrated in fantasy circles. Yes, his free throw percentage is horrendous. But in head-to-head leagues you can just punt that category and still easily win the week. In roto leagues you can surround him with good free-throw shooters and be OK in that category and compete for first overall. Of the eight centers who scored at least 17 points a game last year Howard shot the best from the field, had the most rebounds and the second-most blocks. He’s a fine second-round pick.

Pressing Questions: Who’s starting at power forward? Donatas Motiejunas and Greg Smith are battling for the starting 4 spot, and while Smith may be the better athlete Motiejunas is probably the better fit for the offense. He can step back and shoot the three a little bit so that’ll open things up for Howard and the others. Smith will have to battle Asik for playing time since they’re both more interior players. Neither should be an option in shallower leagues, but in deeper leagues Motiejunas can be drafted late.

Sleeper: Parsons

Breakout Candidate: Parsons

Rebound Candidate: Howard

Bust Candidate: Lin

Depth Chart:

Point guard	Jeremy Lin	Patrick Beverley	Aaron Brooks	Isaiah Canaan
Shooting guard	James Harden	Reggie Williams
Small forward	Chandler Parsons	Francisco Garcia
Power forward	Donatus Motiejunas	Greg Smith
Center	Dwight Howard	Omer Asik

 

Team: Dallas Mavericks

Last Season Record: 41-41

Key Fantasy Additions: Jose Calderon, Monta Ellis, Devin Harris, Samuel Dalembert

Key Fantasy Losses: O.J. Mayo, Darren Collison, Chris Kaman

2013 Draft Picks: Shane Larkin

Team Overview: Jose Calderon will be Dallas’s starting point guard this season, and he should be a good middle-round value. Expect about 12 points and 7-8 assists a game with solid percentages – just like he’s done year-in and year-out. I’d take him over Lin. I think Monta Ellis will have one of the better seasons of his career playing with Calderon and Dirk. He contributes across the board, minus his percentages, but those should go up this year a bit. I wouldn’t spend too high a pick on Nowtizki, but if you can get after 30th overall he should be a fine value.

Sleeper: Calderon

Breakout Candidate: Ellis

Rebound Candidate: Dalembert – Take Sammy D late as he’ll be close to a double-double on most nights and be a help in blocks, too.

Bust Candidate: Nowitzki

Depth Chart:

Point guard	Jose Calderon	Devin Harris	Gal Mekel	Shane Larkin
Shooting guard	Monta Ellis	Wayne Ellington
Small forward	Shawn Marion	Vince Carter	Jae Crowder
Power forward	Dirk Nowitzki	Dejuan Blair
Center	Samuel Dalembert	Brandan Wright

 

Team: New Orleans Pelicans

Last Season Record: 27-55

Key Fantasy Additions: Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday, Greg Stiemsma

Key Fantasy Losses: Greivis Vasquez, Robin Lopez

2013 Draft Picks: Jeff Withey

Team Overview: The Pelicans bring in Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday this season, and both should have a big impact in New Orleans. Holiday is undoubtedly New Orleans’ top ball-handler and should put up stats close to last year’s where only he and Chris Paul, among point guards, scored at least 16.9 points, had eight assists and 3.7 rebounds a game. You won’t have to spend a top pick to get him, but he helps across the board. Evans’s numbers have decreased recently, but the fifth-year guard had his best true-shooting and field goal percentages last year. He could come off the bench, but that should help him because he’ll be going up against other teams’ second units. He’s not as flashy as he was after his rookie year, but he can be a good contributor to your team.

Ryan Anderson will have another productive year. He’s not flashy, but his 3PM, rebounds, free-throw shooting and low turnovers make him a very undervalued commodity. Draft him. Anthony Davis is having a monster preseason, and you might have to take him at the end of the first round to get him. His numbers should all go up this season, and his efficiency from the floor and the line only reinforce his rising stock. Don’t let him slip past 15th overall. Greg Stiemsma may start at center, but his upside is very limited and he won’t see that many minutes to make a huge impact. He’ll help you in blocks, but close to nothing else.

Sleeper: Evans

Breakout Candidate: Davis

Rebound Candidate: Evans

Bust Candidate: Gordon – Although his price is well down from where it was a couple years ago, Gordon has missed almost half of possible games in the past four years. He really only contributes in points, 3PM and steals, so even if he does play most of the season he barely helps you in more than a few categories. Stay away.

Depth Chart:

Point guard	Jrue Holiday	Brian Roberts
Shooting guard	Eric Gordon	Austin Rivers
Small forward	Al-Farouq Aminu	Tyreke Evans	Anthony Morrow
Power forward	Anthony Davis	Ryan Anderson
Center	Jason Smith	Greg Stiemsma	Jeff Withey