2014-15 Fantasy Basketball, Box Score Browsing: Preseason Week 3
The silly/awesome season is nearly at hand, we’re mere hours away from the start of the 69th NBA season.
Here’s the final preseason wrap-up of box scores, with a few tidbits and stats to note as the season kicks off tonight.
Changing of the Guard?
Kobe Bryant. Dwyane Wade. Derrick Rose. Deron Williams.
Though varying in age and current ability, all four of these vets have at one point or another been able to call themselves an elite fantasy option at point or shooting guard (or both).
Along with LeBron James, Kobe Bryant is perhaps the most polarizing figure across the NBA – and that same sentiment is echoed in fantasy circles. Depending on the league settings and scoring type, he is either welcomed with open arms , or he is seen as a barely inside the top 40 rankings – despite the lack of depth at the SG spot. The Fix’s own NBA editor Zack Rewis has massive expectations for Kobe, and while I’ve tempered my own projections slightly – Kobe has shown in the preseason that he is still the top dog in LA.
Through six preseason games, Bryant averaged just 26.7 minutes per night but he still scored 19.0 points per game. Do the math and that translates to 25.6 points per-36 minutes – looks a lot like his career number, yes? Kobe’s new eligibility at PG is an added bonus, especially if you land a SG who doesn’t necessarily score at a high clip but produces elsewhere, such as Danny Green or Lance Stephenson.
Dwyane Wade seems to have copped a ridiculous amount of flak for sitting out of so many games last year but now the Heat don’t have LeBron to carry the load, so he’s likely to see his GP increase by around 10-12 this season. But, just because the GP might go up to a more acceptable 65-70 games played, doesn’t mean this is a guy you want anchoring your SG spot. Wade’s points per game dropped for the fifth straight season last year – an ominous decline that started after he peaked in 2008-09 with his ridiculously efficient fantasy campaign. What should concern Wade owners is his play to end last season (last 8 playoff games: 15.3pts, 4.4reb, 3.5ast, 1.8stl, 0.0blk, 3.3t/o and 44/77 splits) – and whether that hangover is still going to be with him in 2014-15. His preseason was ‘solid’, the FG% was at 50% like it nearly always is, while he also knocked down 0.9 threes per game – which is something he has never really been able to do consistently. If you can get Wade on the cheap then do it, but he still has holes in his game and you never know when he’s actually going to be in the line-up and play 35 minutes, which I imagine is extremely frustrating to both Heat fans and Wade owners.
Derrick Rose is another name that has fantasy enthusiasts divided. Was he that good to begin with in fantasy? Is he worth the risk in the first 2-3 rounds? Is he now a fall-back option at PG, sitting in the ‘third’ tier of PGs with solid options such as Jeff Teague, Tony Parker and the aforementioned Wade? Whatever your thoughts are, Rose’s last two preseason games were extremely pleasing to Rose owners. He pumped in 57 total points over those last two contests, to end the preseason with 8 games played, averaging 21.9 minutes, 16.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.6 threes and sexy 48/84 shooting splits. The only underwhelming stats – along with the 2.9 asissts – is Rose’s lack of STL/BLK, as he averaged just 0.4 steals and failed to register a single block in more than 160 minutes’ play. But hey, if you’re drafting a PG for blocks, you’re doing it wrong. Call me a pessimist, but if Rose plays 20-25 games at around his career averages (ie 19-20pts 3-4reb, 5-6ast), I start making calls (emails!) to trade him while the going is good.
Deron Williams did everything he could to be unlikable as a fantasy option last year. The only thing he did continue to do – which is what still makes him a top 60 option – was knock down his free throws at 80%, dish enough assists to be handy (just over 6 per) and bury the three ball (1.5 per game). While those three categories were actually well below his standard stat-lines, it still put him at or above average in terms of PGs while his career high 1.5 steals and 45% from the floor were actually nice surprises. Williams has had a very good preseason, playing in 5 games for the Nets and averaging 25.8 minutes, while having the ball in his hands a lot more than he did under Jason Kidd last season. He’s produced averages of 14.2 points, 2.4 rebounds, 5.8 assists, while knocking down 1.4 threes per game at 50%. Deron’s been going at around pick 42, which seems about right for a player who shouldn’t be your top dog at PG heading into the season, but could end up being one of them by the end of the season.
The Atlanta Hawks’ best player when healthy (sorry Paul Millsap) is a legit fantasy stud.
He’s typically going after other elite PF/C options like Al Jefferson, Dirk Nowitzki, Chris Bosh and LaMarcus Aldridge – but should he be?
He was the 14th ranked player on averages last season, two spots behind LMA and three ahead of Al Jefferson. Bosh and Jefferson are locks to lead their respective teams in scoring and rebounding, while LaMarcus Aldridge will again be a 22-10 type player – but he shares the scoring with ever-improving Damian Lillard, while the rebounding is spread amongst Robin Lopez and Nicolas Batum – with both players averaging more rebounds than Bosh or Dirk did in ’14-15.
Horford played 5 preseason games and totalled just 99 minutes, averaging sigh worthy stats of 7.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 0.2 blocks and JR Smith-like 40/60 splits.
Now, there were positives – notably the 2.6 assists and 1.2 steals, along with 0.4 turnovers, which is where my point is. Horford and the Hawks are not rushing him back to being the top option yet – his minutes show that, as does his just three total free throw attempts and the fact Millsap and Jeff Teague basically nailed their per-36 stats this preseason.
I do have a point to all this rambling: Horford had a lousy preseason.
He is a prime buy-low candidate, so make offers now because once he hits his straps and they start giving him more and more touches, you’re not going to get him at a reduced rate.
I love this guy.
I have him in the majority of leagues I’m in and he has real value in terms of defensive stats. For a SG/SF to block 100 shots in a season of College (2.8 per game!) is really something, but for that to then continue to the pros?
That’s a diamond in the rough.
Yahoo had him criminally low (523, now 156) before they fixed their ‘rankings issues’, so he’s not as easy to grab with your last pick – but the STL/BLK combination is very alluring to fantasy owners, especially if that three ball starts to drop along with his 80% FT potential (junior year: 84% on 5 FTA per game). McDaniels signed a 1yr deal as a second round pick, so while that was met with furrowed brows from 76ers ‘brass’, his coach Brett Brown is defensive minded and McDaniels will earn himself minutes on that side of the game alone.
Plus, I make it a rule to always draft at least 1-2 players who I actually enjoy to watch. Note, I said players rather than teams – because the 76ers may live up to their team name in terms of losses this season if their current roster is anything to go by.
Layups
Kyle Singler is not what you’d call a note-worthy fantasy player, but he’s going to get a ton of open looks as the likely starter at SF for the Pistons. He has a very similar skill-set to a previous SVG favorite in Hedo Turkoglu, though not as good a play-maker, so don’t be surprised if he ends up producing around 10-11 points, 4-5 rebounds, 2-3 assists and around 1.5 threes per night, while not turning it over much either. In his four preseason starts he averaged 12.5pts, 3.0reb, 1.3stl, 2.0x threes and 45/89 splits – those stats should be repeated in the regular season.
Evan Fournier finds himself on the fantasy radar once again, as the Orlando Magic’s bad run of injuries this off-season continues with Victor Oladipo joining Channing Frye on the side-lines. Fournier doesn’t have much of a conscience when playing big minutes – but we fantasy fans love that as long as he’s getting 30+ minutes! He has good handles and can make plays and create for team-mates as he showed at FIBA, just be prepared for some low FG% nights along the way but the threes and steals will be handy late. If he can get 28-30mins – as he should – then you can expect some solid contributions in the SG spot. In the 22 games he played at least 24mins in last season, Fournier averaged 15.0pts, 4.4reb, 2.5asst, 2.0 threes and 43/85 splits – those are solid stats to plug in while Bradley Beal or Victor Oladipo are both out of action.
Otto Porter seems to be the newest hot waiver wire option, as he’s flown up rankings due to his last handful of preseason games. In his three preseason starts he averaged 33 minutes per night, putting up 17.7pts, 4.3reb, 2.7asst, 3.0stl, 1.7x threes and 53/67 splits. He’s seized the minutes made available by the Wizards’ injuries to Bradley Beal and Glen Rice Jr and he has an interesting skill-set as a SF who can rebound and do a little of everything, particularly assisting in the threes and steals categories this preseason. Look for him late and if he’s still available now, he’s a perfect buy-low candidate until Beal returns, and a great stopgap option for daily leagues at SG and SF.
Quincy Pondexter. Sure, his name sounds like an up-tight mathematics Professor, but Q can defend and shoot the long ball – which should see him win the starting SF gig for the Grizzlies. His last three preseason outings were exactly what you’d like from a fringe starter/bench option in fantasy: 15.5pts, 3.0reb, 1.5asst, 1.0stl, 2.0 threes and 51/81 splits – if you’re looking for this year’s DeMarre Carroll/fantasy glue guy, Q is the guy.
As always we welcome your feedback, so feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@macetastic) and I’ll do my best to reply to any comments.
4 Comments
I went PG and Center heavy early in my draft (to sort of block other teams) and found myself w/o a shooting guard at pick 100. I took Giannis who qualified, but now I’m scared of the turnovers (h2h 9 cat).
I got Terrence Ross a few rounds later, but I’m wondering if I can find someone off of waivers to settle down the SG position while I wait for Giannis to settle down (I don’t trust Kidd).
Kontavius is out there.
KJ McDaniels
OJ Mayo (No)
Wes Johnson
Marko Bellineli
Vince Carter
Evan Fournier
Wow Wrotten counts as a PG/SG. That’s interesting.
Randy Foye
Tonight is the first night of waivers (we drafted on Sunday) and I have first waiver pick.
I’d be dropping either Terrance Ross, Kyle O’Quinn or Rudy Gobert to get one of those guys. Should I stick it out at SG with Giannis and Ross or is one of those guys a more solid choice?
Thanks.
Just noticed KJ is SF only right now on espn. Ugh.
Well, I started O’Quinn and Ross and sat Giannis.
We’ll see how it goes.
Definitely grab KCP now for Ross.
He’s a very good defender which will get him in SVG’s (so many acronym’s, love it) good books. Also Meeks was ALWAYS better as a bench gunner than as a starter, so he won’t rock the boat when he comes back. KCP is the future at SG for Detroit.
Grab Wroten right now – his %s will be brutal but you could potentially flip him off for an upgrade if he comes out with some solid stats.
I had the same dilemma with KG at SF only – very annoying! there needs to be a median between Yahoo and ESPN, ie Yahoo gives multi positions to basically anyone – like Manu at SF? Come on. Just wait on KJM, the chances/mins will get there eventually. Same goes for Giannis, he could be the first four position guy since Diaw like 8-9yrs ago!