2014-15 Fantasy Basketball: Box Score Browsing – Rudy Can’t Fail
The Stifle Tower has erupted since Enes Kanter went down with an ankle injury.
Jazz coach Quin Snyder and his deathly stare shakes my foundation to the core, but he doesn’t seem to be ready to hand the lion’s share of minutes back to a healthy again Enes Kanter just yet (though admittedly, Kanter has looked very solid).
Gobert is a legitimate top 40 option from here on out if he continues to get 30 minutes, due to his blocks upside alone. In his last seven games he has blocked 31 shots (at least 3 in each game), including 6 against Minnesota and a career-high 7 against Oklahoma City.
This is a big-man season reminiscent of the Larry Sanders Show back in 2012-13, when Sanders erupted off the bench for a PTS-REB-BLK triple double, eventually getting handed the starting gig and winning many a fantasy title for those who tuned in.
The Frenchman has excelled on the glass as well as burying his shots from the field, never straying far from the hoop or over-extending himself – which has led to a truly elite field goal percentage of 63%. It doesn’t hurt that he also takes very few free throws while knocking them down at a salvageable clip also (67%). He’s also racked up five double-doubles on the season, all of which have come in his last 12 games.
Gobert won’t be on your waiver wire – or at least he shouldn’t be – and we like his value to remain high this season compared to other promising bigs like Alex Len and Hassan Whiteside. That’s not to say the other bigs won’t stay consistent, but Gobert’s upside in rebounds and blocks is greater than the other two players and he’s looked more consistent so far.
Check out this 2:32 long highlight clip of his game against the Timberwolves, highlighted by the epic stuff of Shabazz Muhammad at the 1:50 mark. The sheer wingspan of the 22 year old is insane, as he barely jumps for a number of dunks and rejections – but when he does jump it’s a thing of beauty.
If you own him in a keeper league, be thankful. This guy is the main threat to Anthony Davis’ mortgage on the blocks title, at a likely draft position (anywhere from 40-75, depending what categories you play) far behind bigger names like Davis or Serge Ibaka.
Yes, another Rudy who is destroying it in fantasy this season.
Perhaps no other payer benefited more from the return from injury of DeMarcus Cousins, as Gay is no longer double-teamed late in the clock because Boogie requires constant monitoring due to being such a force of nature on the block.
Gay’s been one of the more consistent fantasy performers over the course of his career, he’s working on his eighth straight season with at least 18 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.2 steals and 0.8 threes.
This year in particular he’s added a lot more ball-handling to his game, which in turn has bumped his assist rate up to a very healthy 4.2 per game – that’s nearly double his career rate of 2.3. That mark has him as one of just five forward eligible players averaging 4.0+ assists per game, sharing that stat with Blake Griffin, LeBron James, Gordon Hayward and Nicolas Batum.
The great thing about a fantasy player like Gay is, even when his assists are dropping like they have over the past week (just 1.0 per game last three games), he contributes in so many other categories, despite admitting he is struggling with the team make-up and his role within it. He’s scored at least 22 points in his last three games, while still averaging 2.0 threes, 5.0 rebounds, 1.3 steals and helpful 56/81 shooting splits, with just 1.3 turnovers.
Gay has been much maligned for his ‘chucking’ over the years, particularly when playing for the Raptors a couple of seasons ago, but the trade to the Kings has seen him mature on the court. He’s thrived as the second banana behind the incorrigible Cousins, while complimenting shoot-first point guard Darren Collison (also much maligned and criticised, perhaps unfairly).
(Gay sustained an injury overnight, so for the purpose of not ‘skewing’ his stats, his 10 minute showing against Dallas were not included).
I have to admit, I’ve never been a particularly big fan of shooting guards who don’t do an extra ‘thing’ good. That is to say, it should be assumed a shooting guard can in fact shoot, but ideally you’d like either 5.0 rebounds or 5.0 assists or 1.8 steals in addition to those standard points, free throw percentage and threes.
Afflalo does none of those stats, in fact he doesn’t come close in any of them. Nor has he ever in six seasons as a full-time NBA starting shooting guard. His career high in rebounding is 3.7 per game, which he achieved in 2012-13. His career high in assists? 3.4 per game from last season’s career campaign for the Magic.
And don’t even talk about his defensive stats, they’re essentially the worst of any guard since he became a full-time starter (yes, worse than Steve Nash!). He is the only guard since 2009-10 through to the current season to average less than 0.55 steals and play over 12,500 minutes (32.9 per game). Wow.
Ok so I’m not selling him to you, I’ll let him do that.
He had just two 20+ point games through his first 20 games, but he has six in his last 17 games – including two 30+ point efforts. His latest scoring binge has seen the Nuggets win four straight, averaging 24.0 points on 55% shooting from the field and blistering 55% shooting from three point land, with 88% from the line on 6.0 attempts per. The counting stats are typically ‘meh’; 3.3 rebounds along with 2.8 assists and just 0.5 steals, but with those percentages you can handle it.
Afflalo is what he is, a good scorer capable of masking fantasy assets who don’t necessarily score more than 10 points a night – your Andre Drummond, Rajon Rondo and Tyson Chandler types who help you win the other categories Afflalo does nothing in.
Much has been said about the Josh Smith effect, and how the Pistons are suddenly a team full of He-Man and Wonder Woman’s children, shellacking teams as they please.
Monroe has excelled with the added minutes from Smith’s departure, providing owners his customary scoring, rebounding and field goal percentage production while helping enough in steals and assists to remain an asset at the center spot.
He came storming out of the gates despite beginning the season as a reserve, but then he hit the fantasy wall so many young big men hit. A dreadful eight game stretch where he averaged just 10.1 points, 8.3 rebounds, a combined 0.7 steals and blocks along with horrid 42/66 splits saw him end up on many a trading block or waiver wire. I must admit, I didn’t see the bounce-back coming, but then again nobody could have seen the unprecedented axing of Smith.
The transition has been smoove for Monroe, as he’s paired remarkably well alongside Pistons’ cornerstone Andre Drummond. Monroe’s in the midst of one hell of a five game stretch, as he’s averaged 19.4 points, 13.6 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.2 steals and truly elite 57/84 shooting splits.
Whether Monroe signs on with the Pistons long-term isn’t your problem, just keep riding the string of success and lap up the stats of a young man in a contract year.
Layups
His name is Jonas. Not whatever Charles Barkley thought it was. Although I call him ‘Valan-Choo-choo-ciunas’ because I’m old school like that.
Call him what you will, he’s gone bananas (I need to limit banana to once per article, that’s two already…now three…ah well) recently. His epic 14-15 shooting (that’s field goals made out of field goals attempted, not the NBA season!) has seen him come in as the 31st ranked player in fantasy over the last 10 days. During that span he’s averaged 19.3 points, 8.8 rebounds, 1.0 block and an unbelievable 67% from the field and 85% at the line.
This season he’s quietly gone about his business and you wouldn’t even know he was hitting career highs in field goal percentage, free throw percentage (and attempts, even more impressive), scoring and turnovers, but he is.
He isn’t blocking as many shots as we’d all hoped – but 1.0 per game coupled with that elite near 80% from the line makes him a rarity in today’s NBA. The fact he’s also giving you 8.0 rebounds and just 1.2 turnovers, has culminated in him being the 78th ranked player on the season – not an elite player but exactly where he was pegged coming into the season in terms of ADP.
Valanciunas should be a solid top 60 option from here on out, if he slumps, pounce with a trade offer in case his owner has an itchy trade finger.
Being the son of a former All-Star shortstop gave Larkin a leg up on the speed department. His dad stole a lot of bases for the Reds, while the son continues to pick pockets at an alarming rate for the New York Knicks.
Larkin ranks 5th in the entire league in terms of steals percentage, racking up 54 pilfers in just 37 games. He’s been a right pest over the last week, nabbing 3.7 steals per game over three contests, including 4 against Washington and then 4 again a night later, against Houston.
The rumblings are coming out about a potential Jose Calderon trade, so those in deep leagues needing steals should take note and at minimum add Larkin to their watchlist.
Oh look, another shooting guard who doesn’t rebound or assist at the rate you’d ideally like.
Unlike Afflalo, Bradley gets his hands on enough loose balls to be an asset in the steal department, while also contributing solid scoring, free throw percentage and threes.
Boston re-upped him prior to the season and many an arm was thrown up at how exorbitant the salary was (four years, $32 million), but after seeing what some other off-season acquisitions (yes, you Chandler) were both paid and are doing, the Celtics should be happy in their investment.
He had just ONE 20+ point game (32 points at Dallas) through his first 24 games of the season, but he’s put up four such games in his last 11. The departure of Jeff Green has left a 17 point hole in the Celtics’ offense, so expect Bradley to step up in that department, which he’s very capable of doing as he showed to end last season (22.4 points in the Celtics’ last five games).
As always we welcome your feedback, so feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@macetastic) and I’ll do my best to reply to any comments.
Big ups to the amazing Basketball-Reference, for all the links and for de-railing me so often, all in the name of research.
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