2014-15 Fantasy Basketball: Sizzlin’ and Fizzlin’ — Week 3
Let’s get right to this week’s sizzlin’ player profile. This week we’ll be checking out the studness that is Pau Gasol. It’s starting to feel like I’m a Bulls homer doing back to back sizzlin’ Bulls, but that’s not the case. You know, I actually heard some flack from people when I had Pau ranked inside my top-50 in my preseason rankings, but all I hear now are crickets. Gasol was made to fit in that role and if Boozer could still put up relevant numbers there, I thought Pau could return to fantasy stardom and here he is. He’s ranked as the 19th best player in 8-category leagues this season according to Basketball Monster.
Ten games in and Pau didn’t need anytime to mold to his new team. It was like he had been a Bull for the past few seasons. The chemistry was instant, and he is playing with such comfort and confidence. His stats have been great averaging 18.6 points, 10.6 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 2.5 blocks. He’s also topping his great play off by shooting 49% from the field and 78% from the charity stripe. Pau is doing most of his damage within 5-feet of the basket this season, which has always been the case, but he isn’t taking as many jumpers as he did with the Lakers. The Bulls system allows him to work from the high post to the restricted area and that’s the area he’s been living mostly.
Pau is a strong passing big man and the league knows this. With the Bulls good shooting wings, teams have to stay close to their man when Gasol gets the ball down low. This allows Pau to do work on his defender without the threat of a double team, but if they do collapse on him he’s always quick to make the appropriate pass to get a teammate an open look. Gasol also gives the team a big boost defensively compared to what they got from Carlos Boozer last season with an all-around better post defensive presence plus shot blocking ability.
Pau is rewarding the owners who ignored his age and non-sexy factors, and there’s really no end in sight as long as he doesn’t wear down late in the year because Thibs runs his players til their legs fall off. I think Pau will be just fine as long as he stays at 34 minutes as he is currently. While staying top-20 may be tough, I think right around 30 is where you’ll find him at season’s end, and with an ADP on ESPN and Yahoo near 60, that’s a sweet big man value.
The Fizzlin’ player I’ll be looking into this week is Andre Drummond. When fantasy GMs drafted the 21-year-old Pistons big man they were expecting to see another statistical bump up from his studly 2013-14 numbers. Instead they’ve been handed a player who can’t seem to go a game without finding himself in foul trouble. In six of the ten games he’s played so far he has racked up at least five fouls. While Drum has remained a solid rebounder, snatching down 11.2 per game, that’s still two below his average last season. His blocks are right on par with last season at 1.6, but his owners surely were hoping he’d jump to more than two this season.
The biggest disappointment from Drum has been his shooting. Last season (see shot chart to the left) he shot better than 63% from the field, this season through just 10 games he’s at a cringeworthy 41%. Now sure, shooting greater than 60-percent shouldn’t be an issue when you’re 7′ and take 97.7% of your field goal attempts right at the rim. Drum knows what he’s good at and stuck with it, he didn’t try to be something he’s not and force jumpers. Drum was 474/751 (63%) shooting at the rim last season and 5/17 elsewhere. So why the sluggish shooting start to his third NBA season?
Truth is, it’s really tough to put a finger on it since he doesn’t take many field-goal attempts. Even last season he only took 9.5 shots a game, he’s at 8.7 FGA right now. How do you diagnose a shooting problem for a guy who takes more than 90-percent of his shots at the rim? The only thing I found in the advanced stats was that Andre has just not been making his layups as well as a season ago. The previous season he was 134/239 (56.5%) on layups and this season he’s just 13/32 (40.6%). I’ve had the chance to watch Drummond play about four times this season and he really seems in the dumps. This may just be from all of the foul trouble and/or the bad play getting to his young mind, but he’s got to know that lacking interest isn’t going to help turn things around.
In the end, if you drafted Drummond you have to ride out this hellacious storm because selling him right now is a bad decision. While it’s possible he may not average 13 points, 13 boards and shoot at >60% again, there’s no reason to believe it will stay this bad. Saddle in and be patient with the young big man and know that brighter days are ahead. Stan Van Gundy dealt with Dwight Howard and will get Drum playing at an elite center level again soon. If you don’t own Drummond and can handle his poor free throw shooting (albeit at a less impactful 2 to 4 FTA a game), then go make an offer to his befuddled owner. The double-double and block machine will be back in business sooner rather than later.
For more fantasy hoops analysis and to have any questions you may have answered, follow Zack on Twitter @BigZack44