Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: December 2, 2015
After a nice vacation, I am feeling refreshed and glad to be back to the NBA DFS grind! Tonight’s slate features nine-games and I’ll be giving you my top plays and values at each position, as well as cash game rankings below to help you finish in the green tonight. So, let’s get right to it.
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Vegas lines and totals
L.A. Lakers (+10) @ Washington — 205.5
Golden State (-9) @ Charlotte — 211.5
Phoenix (+4) @ Detroit — 202
Philadelphia (-8.5) @ New York — 191.5
Denver (+9.5) @ Chicago — 198.5
New Orleans (+4) @ Houston — 211.5
Toronto (+3) @ Atlanta — 198
Milwaukee (+12.5) @ San Antonio — 190.5
Indiana (?) @ L.A. Clippers — ???
There are some nice totals to focus on tonight, and two games (Sixers/Knicks and Bucks/Spurs) that I will be fading or at least not using many players from. The Warriors and the Rockets are the teams projected to score the most points tonight which is nothing new. Let’s get to the top plays and values.
POINT GUARD
John Wall ($8,000) – Wall broke out of his slump in a major way last night, leading the Wizards to a big win against the Cavs on the road. Wall ended the game with 35 points, 10 assists and five steals, eclipsing 60 fantasy points for the first time in a long, long time. Look for Wall to continue this renewed aggressiveness tonight against the Lakers who are pitiful against opposing PGs.
Derrick Rose ($6,100) – While I’m not a fan of Derrick Rose in season-long fantasy hoops, he can occasionally be worthy of your attention in DFS. Rose has played over 30 minutes in three straight games, averaging 29 DK points in those games. Tonight the Bulls face the Nuggets who play uptempo and have struggled to slow down opposing point guards. Look for Rose to put up at least mid-30s in DK points, with upside at a good price.
Cheap risk option: Patrick Beverley ($4,100) has been starting for the Rockets and while his upside is limited, he’s a nice value play at this price when continuing to play 30 minutes a night. He’s put up 20+ in three straight games, this will be number four.
SHOOTING GUARD
James Harden ($10,300) – My top stud play of the night is Mr. Harden. He’s surpassed 50 fantasy points in five straight games, even when he’s shot the ball poorly overall. Harden just does it all on the stat sheet and his ability to get to the line at will makes him one of the best and safest fantasy players in the league. Look for James to exploit the Pelicans who have been bad against SGs this season, for a huge scoring night.
Klay Thompson ($6,200) – Klay needs minutes to put up big fantasy numbers, and the way the Warriors frequently blow out their foes, he doesn’t always get those minutes. This is why Klay’s price has sunken to this mid-level and makes him a value play in games that could stay close throughout. The Hornets aren’t great, but they do score the ball and should be able to keep it close enough for Thompson to get 30+ minutes and end around 30 fantasy points with major upside if he gets hot.
Cheap risk option: I’m not a big fan of the cheap options at SG tonight, but Hollis Thompson ($4,100) has at least put up 20+ in five straight games. As long as he keeps seeing healthy playing time, he’ll be a decent cheap plug-in guy who will at least get you 20 while saving you money elsewhere.
SMALL FORWARD
Kawhi Leonard ($8,700) – I’m not a big fan of this game, but you can’t just forget about Kawhi 5-0 just because he’s in a matchup projected to be a blowout and low scoring. Kawhi does so much more than score the ball and that’s why regardless if he just plays 28-30 minutes, he can still deliver you 40 fantasy points. He does it all.
Nicolas Batum ($7,400) – Batum has been solid for the most part this season, and while he doesn’t often rise past his middling ceiling, he’s always a good bet to hit value at least due to his scoring and assist numbers. With Harrison Barnes out, and seeing what Gordon Hayward did against this Warriors lineup this past Monday, it’s clear that Batum will have plenty of chances to put up a big fantasy night. The Hornets need Batum and Kemba Walker to go huge if they’re going to hang around with the undefeated champs.
Cheap risk option: Stanley Johnson ($4,000) has played 27 and 30 minutes the last two games for the Pistons, and I believe he’s done enough to hold around there for SVG for now. While I don’t see him going for 40 DK points again, I think 25 is a safer bet and I’m good with that at this price point. Jared Dudley ($3,300) is the punt play option I am looking at. He’s been just ok the past two games as a starter, but against a weak Lakers team, he could hit above 20 DK points for near minimum price.
POWER FORWARD
Anthony Davis ($10,700) – If I don’t roll with Harden, or if I decide to go with two mega-studs combined with duds in a lineup, Brow is my next choice. He’s back to his last season prime form, putting up 50+ DK points in five of the last six games, averaging 60 DK points in those five contests. Davis will have no issues manhandling the likes of Dwight Howard and Clint Capela tonight in a high scoring game.
Blake Griffin ($9,100) – If Chris Paul is out tonight, I will have a tough time not including Griffin in most of my lineups. Blake’s usage goes up even more than normal with CP3 sidelined and he’s averaged 47.5 DK points in the three games Paul has missed this season. The Pacers really don’t have anyone to stop Griffin from going big if he decides to takeover.
Draymond Green ($7,900) – It’s tough deciding between Dray and the Zinger tonight, but I am leaning to the guy in the game projected to score much more points. They both have great matchups, but I just like Green’s ability to play anywhere from the three to the five for stints and no matter where he goes against Charlotte, he will be a matchup nightmare.
Cheap risk option: Cody Zeller ($3,800) will be starting for the injured Al Jefferson tonight, and while there’s a big question mark over how the minutes will play out between Zeller, Spencer Hawes and Frank Kaminsky, I think Zeller pushes near 30 minutes and while not being a beast, he could manage to land you around 25 DK points.
CENTER
Andre Drummond ($9,000) – While Houston showed the league that the “beat-a-Drum” strategy does equate to a ton of missed FTs by Andre, Drummond was still able to 56 fantasy points thanks to his scoring, boards and defensive numbers. With Tyson Chandler very questionable tonight, things couldn’t be lined up much better for the big man and his big time breakout season. 50+ should be a walk in the park if Chandler is out.
Marcin Gortat ($5,600) – Marcin has been hot, putting up 34+ DK points in four of the Wizards last five games, and tonight he has another favorable matchup against the Lakers. Both teams will be on the second half of a back-to-back and the Lakers just lost to the Sixers last night, talk about demoralizing. Look for Gortat to come out and hit above value once again.
Cheap risk option: Alex Len ($3,300) is almost a must-play if Tyson Chandler sits out again. Even starting, Len has been unreliable, but it’s his upside that he showed last night against the Nets where he went off with 13 points, 14 boards, two steals and three blocks that makes him tough to fade at this minimal price.
Cash game rankings:
This isn’t necessarily an order of who will score the most DraftKings points. Rather, the rankings are aimed to find the best price, value and production combo to help you win cash games, also taking into account potential ownership levels for each player.
PG
1) John Wall
2) Derrick Rose
3) Kemba Walker
4) Patrick Beverley
5) Jeff Teague
6) Kyle Lowry
7) Jerryd Bayless
SG
1) James Harden
2) Klay Thompson
3) Eric Bledsoe
4) Kobe Bryant
5) Bradley Beal
6) Hollis Thompson
SF
1) Kawhi Leonard
2) Nicolas Batum
3) Stanley Johnson
4) Carmelo Anthony
5) Paul George
PF
1) Blake Griffin (if CP3 is out, third if not)
2) Anthony Davis
3) Draymond Green
4) Kristaps Porzingis
5) Cody Zeller
6) Ryan Anderson
C
1) Alex Len (if Chandler is out)
2) Andre Drummond
3) Marcin Gortat
4) Pau Gasol
5) Al Horford
6) Clint Capela
7) Joakim Noah
As always, stay locked to Twitter and Rotoworld for any late-breaking news the hour before the first game tips at 7 p.m. EST. I’ll do my best to update this article as news breaks throughout the day, but the best way to get the latest is always to follow me on Twitter @BigZack44, where I’ll do my best to break down the implications of any late scratches or lineup changes.
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