Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: December 27, 2015
I hope everybody had a good holiday, I know I did with my family. My son is 2.5-years-old and for the first time really understood everything from Santa to the overall Christmas spirit. I also hope that you have all enjoyed this three day free preview of our NBA DFS content that we dish out seven days a week over the duration of the season. Our content is geared mostly towards cash games (50/50s, H2Hs, etc..), but it’s also very helpful when making your GPP (big tournaments) lineups, and within the article we will mention who may or may not be as ideal for tournaments. I believe we put out really thorough and helpful analysis that can help you improve your chances of ending each night in the green.
Today we’re breaking down this small four-game Sunday evening slate. Let’s start with the Vegas lines and projected totals. Those will give us an idea of what games should be the highest scoring, which points us towards the games that are the most beneficial in terms of fantasy. On a slate this small though, no game can be ignored like you might have done on a bigger slate.
Vegas lines and totals
LA Lakers (+11) @ Memphis — projected total of 198
Denver @ Oklahoma City — Will be updated when Vegas posts lines
New York @ Boston — Will be updated when Vegas posts lines
Portland @ Sacramento — Will be updated when Vegas posts lines
As of writing this, only one of the four games has had a line or total posted by Vegas. I will update them and give a quick breakdown of them here when they show up.
POINT GUARD
Russell Westbrook ($10,400) – This is my top play of the night. Russ going up against a combo of Jameer Nelson and Randy Foye, yeah, I am taking that all day long. The Nuggets also played last night, so they will be a bit fatigued on top of already being supremely overmatched. The only concern here is that the OKC starters could sit late if it’s a blowout, but either way we should get a huge showing from Westbrook who is one of only two players that I have projected for 50+ fantasy points (FPs) tonight.
Darren Collison ($4,800) – While there’s plenty to like with Isaiah Thomas and Mike Conley in solid matchups tonight, if I fade Westbrook anywhere, I will probably go the cheap route at PG whether that be with Collison, Jameer Nelson, Lou Williams or the guy I’ll mention as the risk play. It just feels like one of those nights that you need to have the top priced guy here or otherwise you should save the money and pay up elsewhere. Collison will probably be overlooked by many tonight due to DraftKings listing OvP (opponent versus position) by each player and the common DFS player seeing the Blazers are the best at stopping opposing point guards and going another route. That number is of course more the case when Damian Lillard is active, which tonight he is doubtful to play. So, with McCollum starting at point guard and Frazier off the bench, Collison should be able to do major work in his 30+ minutes of play no matter if he’s in as the PG or SG. Look for DC to finish in the 25-30 FP range at a really good price.
Cheap risk option: Mario Chalmers ($3,800) could be a nice punt play tonight *if* the Grizzlies dominate the Lakers as expected. Chalmers would benefit in minutes if the Grizz go up big, and that would leave Mario seeing 20+ minutes against an awful set of guards. If does get over 20 minutes, Rio could easily net you 20 FPs which would be a nice cheap gem on this small slate. Rio will be more of a GPP play for me, but I may slide him in a cash lineup or two also.
SHOOTING GUARD
C.J. McCollum ($7,200) – The Blazers stunned everyone — themselves likely included — when they took down the Cavaliers last night in blowout fashion. Don’t expect that to be the case tonight even against a lesser foe in Sacramento, but the game should be played at a very high pace as most games involving the Kings (2nd to only the Warriors in pace this season) tend to be. McCollum will be running the point for the Blazers and he’s posted a 27.1% usage rate doing that the last two games, as well as a 114.1 offensive rating. The Blazers are going to need CJ even more in this game to be able to keep up with the high scoring Kings, so look for that usage rate to push 30%.
Avery Bradley ($5,100) – While Allen Crabbe will be the more popular play due to being a few hundred bucks cheaper and coming off a big game last night, I am leaning towards Bradley tonight if I go with a mid-range shooting guard. Bradley’s matchup will be 30+ minutes of Arron Afflalo, advantage Avery. Bradley is a shut down defender and should easily stifle the Knicks veteran on defense and take it to him on offense. I have Avery projected at 27.5 FPs tonight thanks to a good scoring night with a few steals.
Cheap risk option: The only two guys I am looking at in the $4K or less range tonight are Gary Harris ($4,000) and Gerald Henderson ($3,500). Harris has done a fine job starting for the Nuggets as a defensive-first player, but his DFS outputs have been very up and down since returning from injury. Don’t expect a big game from him, but if you need to go cheap and hope for around 20 FPs, Harris is a target here. If you need a cheaper punt play, Henderson is worth a look in a high scoring game against Sacramento. He was way off last night, but he put up 18 and 21 FPs the two games prior.
SMALL FORWARD
Carmelo Anthony ($8,200) – The majority of players will be looking at Kevin Durant here, but I would rather save almost $2K and use Carmelo tonight. He’s coming off a game last night where he cracked 40 FPs and I have him repeating those results tonight agains the Celtics. The Celtics don’t have a player who matches up well with Melo whether it be one of their SFs or PFs, so Melo will play both inside and out depending which is on him at the time to his benefit. Most of my lineups I will be going cheaper at SF, but my favorite play in general is Anthony.
Matt Barnes ($5,800) – Call it a “revenge game” or call it exploiting a favorable matchup, but either way Barnes is setup for a good fantasy showing tonight. You know he’s going to play around 28 minutes and the Lakers are one of the worst in the league at defending opposing wings (and everything else for that matter). I’ll absolutely have a mixture of Barnes, Jae Crowder and Omri Casspi tonight as they’re all solid plays at a similar price, but if I am picking one, I favor Barnes.
Cheap risk option: While he may not have that high of a ceiling, Lance Thomas ($4,100) has been seeing 25+ minutes the last few games and has hit value in each of those games. With a small slate like this, you can’t be overly picky with these value types, so take the ones who you know will at least get the opportunity like Lance.
POWER FORWARD
DeMarcus Cousins ($9,900) – They’re letting us roster this beast for under $10K? Sign me up! Cousins has hit more in the mid-40s than low-50s lately, but he’s still one of the best fantasy players in the league and seeing a great matchup. Mason Plumlee and crew will have more than their hands full with the Boogie Monster in the paint tonight, and I have him as one of only two players projected to hit at 50+ FPs tonight. The only guy who can stop him from decimating the Blazers is himself, but I will own a lot of DMC tonight, ESPECIALLY in GPP lineups.
Serge Ibaka ($6,600) – There’s not a whole lot to like at the PF position tonight aside from these two guys, so I will have one or both of them in most of my lineups. Ibaka lit the Nuggets up for 40+ FPs in their last meeting and while I’m not projecting him that high this time out, I do have him hitting in the mid-30s against a weak Denver defensive frontcourt. The points, boards and blocks should be easy to find for Serge tonight.
Cheap risk option: If I am going to throw a punt PF out tonight, I would go with Kyle O’Quinn ($3,400). He returned from an injured ankle last night and showed up well with seven points, four boards, four assists and one steal in 22 minutes, so while I don’t have overly high hopes here, he’s a pretty good punt play at this price if he sees near 20 minutes again.
CENTER
Marc Gasol ($7,300) – I won’t go into much detail here because I know nobody needs me to. It’s Marc Gasol against the awful Lakers. He is going to be the top scorer out of the centers tonight, but I’d imagine myself and most others spending up elsewhere and going cheaper here. So, let’s look at the cheaper targets.
Jared Sullinger ($5,800) – The matchup isn’t the greatest, the Celtics rotation isn’t the most dependable night-to-night, but Sullinger still sits as my top non-Gasol play at center tonight. He’s been doing work despite being stuck at minutes in the mid-20s, and I think he will put up a nice double-double effort tonight at home against the Knicks. I have him projected at 28.5 FPs.
Nikola Jokic ($4,400) – The Serbian rookie continues to impress this season, and last night was no different. Over the past five games, Jokic has averaged over a fantasy point per minute, and it’s not always easy to do that with playing time in the low-20s. Don’t expect another game like last night where he netted over 40 FPs, but around 22 minutes and 22 fantasy points is the range I’d be hoping to acquire. It’s also very reasonable to think he sees extra minutes in the fourth quarter again if this game gets as ugly as we expect it to.
Cheap risk option: This one is pretty easy, it’s Meyers Leonard ($3,700). He’s seeing anywhere from 22-27 minutes for Portland, and while his production has been very inconsistent, on a small slated night like this, he’s a really nice value play, risk or not. He’s averaged 25 FPs the past two games and will be my punt center or cheap utility play in a decent amount of lineups.
Cash game rankings:
This isn’t necessarily an order of who will score the most DraftKings points. Rather, the rankings are aimed to find the best price, value and production combo to help you win cash games, also taking into account potential ownership levels for each player.
PG
1) Russell Westbrook
2) Darren Collison
3) Isaiah Thomas
4) Rajon Rondo
5) Jameer Nelson
6) Mike Conley
7) Randy Foye
SG
1) C.J. McCollum
2) Avery Bradley
3) Will Barton
4) Allen Crabbe
5) Gary Harris
6) Kobe Bryant
SF
1) Matt Barnes
2) Omri Casspi
3) Carmelo Anthony
4) Jae Crowder
5) Kevin Durant
6) Lance Thomas
7) Jeff Green
PF
1) DeMarcus Cousins
2) Serge Ibaka
3) Amir Johnson
4) Julius Randle
5) Kyle O’Quinn
6) Kenneth Faried
C
1) Marc Gasol
2) Jared Sullinger
3) Nikola Jokic
4) Meyers Leonard
5) Mason Plumlee
6) Enes Kanter
As always, stay locked to Twitter and Rotoworld for any late-breaking news the hour before the first game tips at 6 p.m. EST. I’ll do my best to update this article as news breaks throughout the day, but the best way to get the latest is always to follow me on Twitter @BigZack44, where I’ll do my best to break down the implications of any late scratches or lineup changes.