Sigh, you know I admit when I take the wrong path, and Sunday, I led us off a cliff. I was simply mesmerized by the dreamy 220 total that Vegas put on the Thunder/Kings games, and in the end it didn’t even hit 200. This leads me to another “lesson” that we all know is a possibility, but if you don’t have a big bankroll, it’s tough to sack-up and try more than the rare occasion. The style of play I am speaking of is more useful for GPPs (guaranteed prize pools, big tournaments), and twice in the past week, it’s been the style that has won the big pay days. The style I speak of is contrarian play.

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Contrarian play is basically going against the grain. If you know Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and another big name are going to be extremely heavily used due to a high total or a lack of other big names, you zig while others zag. While Russ and Durant COULD do as expected and go for 110 combined fantasy points, then sure the 70% who used one or both of them have a big advantage. BUT if Russ is just solid and Durant doesn’t hit value, then those who went another route have the edge over those who used the tandem. Sometimes it’s easier to go the contrarian way and hope the top plays fail for you to swoop in with the not so sexy plays and have way less percentage of people who played the same way. This is just something to think on if you’re a regular GPP player. Maybe you toss out a “chalk” (going with the most popular plays) lineup and one contrarian also. Or you just become a complete contrarian GPP DFS player and you always go against the grain with your top plays, and take your lumps on the days the chalk is on the money, but cash in much bigger on the nights the chalk falls short.

OK, let’s get to tonight’s slate, and always remember, this column is targeted primarily at cash games (50/50, head-to-head, etc..), not tournaments. So, yes, most of the time it will seem we focus more on the chalky type players, but that’s what lands you in the green at the end of the night way more frequently in cash games. We do use these same guys often in our GPP lineups as well though, and sometimes write in the reasonings that a player may be a better GPP option.

Vegas lines and totals

Golden State (-5.5) @ Indiana — total of 214
Portland (+9) @ Cleveland — 200
Houston (-3.5) @ Brooklyn — 206.5
Oklahoma City (-2.5) @ Memphis — 203
Orlando (-3) @ Denver — 199
Utah (+2) @ Sacramento — 205.5

As mentioned above, the 220 total from Sunday made me go overboard on a ship that mostly sank, but that doesn’t mean that a 214 total tonight won’t still be the apple of my eye. I am loving that GSW/IND game with a lot of big players involved and looking to show out in a big matchup between a top team in the East and the unbeaten team out of the West. There are definitely more than just one game worthy of playing off of though, and this is a prime example of where contrarian GPP players will look to strike, whether it ends up a good night for that or not, time will tell. Curry and George are surely the top guys people will look at tonight due to the high total and the excitement for the big matchup, so a stud like LeBron is sure to fly under the radar in a less popular game and when they see that Portland is listed as the best team at stoping opposing small forwards.

POINT GUARD

Russell Westbrook ($10,400) – I do like Stephen Curry tonight (as you’ll see in the positional rankings), but I am leaning more towards Westbrook as my top big dollar point guard against the Grizzlies. Russ lit them up for 72 DK points last time out, but that was with KD out and Russ in takeover mode. Something along the lines of 55-60 fantasy points is more what I’d be hoping for tonight.

Elfrid Payton ($6,400) – I may be expecting 20-25 less fantasy points (FPs) from Payton than Westbrook, but he also saves you $4K which if you use that wisely elsewhere, it’s possible you could beat out a Westbrook users lineup. Payton is playing big minutes for Orlando of late and he’s been producing pretty well with it, and tonight against a soft defensive team like Denver, Elf could be a nice value play. I’m projecting Elfrid to hit around the mid-to-low 30s tonight, but he does have the ability to go for more.

Patrick Beverley ($4,700) – Wan to save even more money at point guard and spend up elsewhere tonight? Beverley is the guy to use, but I’ll also use him for the G slot in most lineups tonight. He’s starting and been pretty consistent recently going for 23 – 21 – 27 – 24 – 24 FPs over the last five games, and they play Brooklyn tonight who don’t stop point guards well.

Cheap risk option: With Rudy Gobert out, the Jazz have been running a lot more small lineups out there and Trey Burke ($3,900) has received 34 minutes of PT each of the last two games. At this price and assuming he gets good minutes again, he’s a nice value play that allows you flexibility elsewhere.

SHOOTING GUARD

James Harden ($10,600) – Always top-dollar, always a top play regardless. It’s going to be a tough night to pick shooting guards because when you look at the DraftKings list for the position, there’s so much green highlighting favorable matchups. Seven of the top ten priced shooting guards face defenses in the bottom eight at allowing fantasy points to opposing SGs. So, which one will light make use of that matchup advantage the most? Well, Harden may cost the most but there may be nobody I feel is more sure of a bet to go for 50+ FP tonight than the Beard.

Klay Thompson ($6,400) – While Victor Oladipo may be the best GPP upside play in this mid-tier SG range, I think Klay is the safest bet to roll with for cash games. The Pacers are poor at stopping shooting guards and Klay is just the type of player who can exploit their weaknesses. You never know when Klay may get sizzling hot and go for 50, but I am expecting a minimum of 30 from him tonight.

Cheap risk option: I don’t recommend punting at SG tonight, but if I had to throw a blind dart at a cheap play, it’d be Dion Waiters ($4,100). He’s not been great nor consistent, but he gets a good amount of shots and when he’s hitting them, he hits value, when he’s not though… Yeah, just go for the top guy or pick a mid-level option here tonight.

SMALL FORWARD

LeBron James ($10,100) – I hinted at this earlier and while I said he’d be a good contrarian play in a GPP, I am not one bit afraid to rock out with Bron in a cash game tonight or really any night. James sat out the last Cavs game for rest, so he’ll be fully energized after three days off against a Blazers team that has a solid SF defender in Aminu, but let’s be real, there’s nobody who can shut down LBJ. James is a sure bet for 45 FPs and could always take it a level up to hit around 60 if he decides to. I’m betting somewhere in the middle there.

Joe Johnson ($5,300) – While it will be hard to fade all of the stud top three SFs tonight,if you’re living on the wild side and want to pay up at other positions and want to save money here, I kinda like old school Joe in a favorable matchup against the Rockets. Believe it or not the last time I wrote Joe up in one of these columns was earlier this season when the Nets played the Rockets in Houston and JoJo went off for 41 FPs. That isn’t going to happen again, but I do think Joe should get you in that 25-30 range at a fair price.

Cheap risk option: If there is one guy I’d consider under $4K it’d be Bojan Bogdanovic ($3,600) who is expected to start again at SG for the Nets, but as seen in the last game he started, that gig doesn’t earn you a big bump in minutes. He played just 20 in the last game and only put up 14 FPs. Still, he is a feasible punt option if needed. Matt Barnes ($4,400) is likely the cheapest I would go here tonight though, if at all.

POWER FORWARD

Draymond Green ($8,100) – I think my cover man Dray may be my favorite play of the night. The Pistons just have nobody that can stop him from doing what he wants to do no matter if he’s playing at the 3, 4 or 5. Paul George doesn’t want to guard PFs, C.J. Miles is attempting it but doesn’t matchup well here, Jordan Hill isn’t going to cut it and Dray would leave Mahinmi frozen in his tracks as he flew by. One of those nights that you feel Dray will put up near triple-double numbers.

Kenneth Faried ($5,800) – In the mid-tier, I am looking heavily at a couple of names, mainly Faried and Terrence Jones. Faried should re-enter the Nuggets starting lineup and his high energy play should fair well against the young Magic core who are mid-pack against PFs on the year. At this price level and knowing he should hit near 30 FPs, I like Faried to be a quality play.

Cheap risk option: Andrew Nicholson ($4,000) is the cheap value option here tonight. You always need to be worried that Skiles will shake things up, but Nicholson has been set in a good role lately and while not tearing the roof off, the Canadian baller has averaged over 20 DK points in the last four games. The team may look to him a little more tonight to try and slow down the Manimal on the defensive end, because guys like Channing Frye surely will not be able to.

CENTER

Dwight Howard ($7,000) – I like both bigs in this matchup, Brook Lopez and Dwight Howard, but edge to Howard for the extended upside and being cheaper. In their last square off this season, Howard went for 54 FPs and BLo 42, so they both got it done, D12 just a little better. I feel Dwight is a pretty safe play at this price point tonight.

Brook Lopez ($7,700) – Like I said above, I like both players in this battle of the bigs. Lopez should score at will and his ability to nail his FTs will be key. I’m not real fond or at least confident in the centers beyond the top four tonight. I’m sure a couple will hit, but it’s a slippery slope that I’ll try and avoid tonight.

Cheap risk option: Timofey Mozgov ($3,700) is the punt option at center for me tonight. The Blazers allow a lot of fantasy points to opposing bigs and although Moz only plays around 20 minutes, he could still get you 20 fantasy points potentially, but don’t feel safe about it by any means.

Cash game rankings:

This isn’t necessarily an order of who will score the most DraftKings points. Rather, the rankings are aimed to find the best price, value and production combo to help you win cash games, also taking into account potential ownership levels for each player.

PG
1) Russell Westbrook
2) Patrick Beverley
3) Stephen Curry
4) Elfrid Payton
5) Mike Conley
6) Damian Lillard
7) Jarrett Jack

SG
1) James Harden
2) Klay Thompson
3) Victor Oladipo
4) Will Barton
5) C.J. McCollum
6) J.R. Smith
7) Rodney Hood

SF
1) LeBron James
2) Kevin Durant
3) Joe Johnson
4) Paul George
5) Gordon Hayward
6) Rudy Gay
7) Matt Barnes

PF
1) Draymond Green
2) Kenneth Faried
3) Derrick Favors
4) Thaddeus Young
5) Andrew Nicholson
6) Trevor Booker

C
1) Dwight Howard
2) Brook Lopez
3) Marc Gasol
4) Nikola Vucevic
5) Ian Mahinmi
6) Timofey Mozgov
7) Kostas Koufos

As always, stay locked to Twitter and Rotoworld for any late-breaking news the hour before the first game tips at 7 p.m. EST. I’ll do my best to update this article as news breaks throughout the day, but the best way to get the latest is always to follow me on Twitter @BigZack44, where I’ll do my best to break down the implications of any late scratches or lineup changes.

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