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Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: February 23, 2016

After Monday’s high-scoring seven-game slate that Mr. Zack Rewis so accurately predicted yesterday, Tuesday brings us five more games for our DFS playing pleasure. As is our weekly norm of late, we will be taking some time today to break down the slate using the values over at FantasyDraft.com. If you don’t already play DFS at FantasyDraft, you’re missing out. The scoring is the same as DraftKings, but you’ll notice the extra positional flexibility—three guards, three forward/centers and two utility spots—is great for diversifying lineups and limiting chalk.

If you sign up through our referral link, you will receive one month of our Front Office DFS content for free. If you already have a subscription to Front Office, let us know and maybe we can hook you up with a different sign-up reward. Enough about FantasyDraft.com though, as it’s time to get Vegas’ thoughts on Tuesday night.

Vegas lines and totals

Orlando (-6) @ Philadelphia – total of 208.5
New Orleans @ Washington (-5) – total of 213.5
Houston @ Utah (-5) – total of 202.5
Sacramento @ Denver (-1) – total of 223
Brooklyn @ Portland (-11.5) – total of 210.5

Not only is that Kings-Nuggets game projected as the closest of the night, it also has a Warriors game-esque total of 223. Even the Jazz game is in play with a matchup against the uptempo Rockets, and there is truly no game to completely fade tonight, as high scores could be in abundance yet again. Nets-Blazers looks like a potential blowout, but there’s one player in particular I still love in that matchup.

Now, for the top options and values at each position:

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GUARD

Damian Lillard ($17,100) – That player is Damian Lillard, as the Blazers star has scored at least 30 points in four straight games and is averaging over 36 per game (!!) in that span. The chip that always rests on Lillard’s shoulder only got larger with his All-Star snub this season, and he’s aiming to take it out on the entire league. Donald Sloan will play the role of sacrificial lamb tonight for the Nets, and the blowout potential of this game doesn’t dissuade me from Lillard too much. If Portland is going to win a laugher, it will be because Dame absolutely goes off again, and he’s not as expensive as James Harden, DeMarcus Cousins or Anthony Davis.

Rajon Rondo ($15,500) – The Kings haven’t played in three days, and their last game came against the Nuggets, who Rondo thrashed for 24 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists. He had at least 15 assists in his previous four games entering the break and has shown no signs of slowing down due to his toe injury. Dollar for dollar I’d take him over Lillard, but it’s close and both are easily worth their price. Lillard will score more points, however, and that’s usually a good tiebreaker unless you’re desperate for the $1,600.

Jrue Holiday ($13,200) – I’m done letting Holiday’s bench role dissuade me from taking him in cash games, as he’s been too good of late to worry about. He does post the occasional dud if he doesn’t get into a rhythm, but he’s such a good player that he rarely has trouble finding his numbers on the court. Even a slow start against Detroit on Sunday paved the way for a huge second half, allowing Holiday to still push for 40 points even with Anthony Davis making history. At this price, 40 is a great floor, and a banged up John Wall doesn’t worry me that much defensively.

Victor Oladipo ($12,000) – Tuesday’s edition of “Pick on Philadelphia” stars Victor Oladipo, who has thrived in Orlando’s two games post-break with Tobias Harris out of town. He’s averaging 17 points, 10.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 2.5 steals, and the only number that’s really due for regression there is the boards. A road game means less chance of a blowout and Oladipo should see 40 or minutes again Tuesday night, giving him a great shot at a big night.

Gary Harris ($8,700) – Harris has been playing very consistent basketball lately, and it’s tough to find players you can rely on in this price range. He’s scored in double figures in four straight games and is averaging 14 points per game in that span along with three assists and 2.3 steals. Harris also draws one of the best matchups of the night, as the Kings are brutal at defending shooting guards. Playing Harris gives you a great shot to fit several of the guys listed above.

Cheap risk option(s): His value was dead in the water behind Jeff Teague and Dennis Schroder in Atlanta, but former Butler Bulldog Shelvin Mack ($7,000) looks like a safe bet to run away with at least half of the point guard minutes in Utah after being traded to the Jazz at the deadline. Mack had 16 points and six assists in 24 minutes in his team debut and while he may not enter the starting lineup just yet, he’s a viable play regardless at his price and projected workload. Coach Quin Snyder loves him from their days together in Atlanta, and he’s a great GPP punt everywhere. He’d be a must-start in cash if he starts, but he’s still a really good option even off the bench.

FORWARD/CENTER

Anthony Davis ($18,300) – Coming off a historic performance against the Pistons on Sunday, Davis gets a juicy matchup against “power forward” Jared Dudley and the Wizards. Washington has nobody that can handle Davis and as long as he avoids the dreaded in-game injury which he has helped make famous, Davis should be able to build on his momentum from Sunday afternoon. The floor here is 50 fantasy points if he makes it through the game.

Brook Lopez ($13,300) – After a mini-slump heading into the All-Star break, Lopez has come out hot in the second half. Averaging 24.5 points, nine rebounds, four assists and three blocks over his past two games, Lopez should be able to take advantage of former teammate Mason Plumlee in the post. My optimism about Lopez’s potential tonight is a big reason why I doubt this game will turn into a complete massacre, and I expect a back-and-forth game between Lopez and Lillard.

Nikola Vucevic ($13,200) – Vucevic let me down slightly—but just slightly—in a tough matchup with the Pacers on Sunday, but I’m going back to the well against the porous interior defense of the 76ers. As I said in Sunday’s writeup, Vucevic is the main beneficiary in terms of usage with Harris out of the picture, although Oladipo has been the one putting up the big fantasy points in Orlando’s last two games. Some of that is matchup-based, however, but both are excellent plays Tuesday.

Derrick Favors ($12,900) – The Rockets are up there with the 76ers as the worst teams at defending opposing power forwards, and Favors is very consistent as long as he avoids foul trouble. If the Rockets start Josh Smith again, Mid-Range Shawty will likely float his way away from the basket and settle for inefficient jump shots, helping Favors stay on the court. As long as he does, which is a likely scenario, the fantasy points should be there in bunches.

Gordon Hayward ($12,500) – Like his teammate Favors, Hayward gets an elite matchup with the Rockets’ terrible forward defense despite facing a good individual defender in Trevor Ariza. Ariza gambles a lot, as somebody has to make things happen defensively for Houston if the Rockets are ever to get a stop. Like Favors, Hayward’s consistency has been great and playing up in pace should be good for his projection tonight.

Cheap risk option(s): Noah Vonleh‘s injury before the break opened up extra playing time for Maurice Harkless ($8,400), and the former St. John’s star hasn’t looked back since. Even a move back to the bench hasn’t hurt his fantasy value, as Harkless is averaging 14.4 points and 7.2 rebounds over his past five games. The scoring may not keep up quite at that clip, but a good matchup with the Nets should give Harkless enough open looks to reach value here. Alexis Ajinca ($6,000) is also a good value option at minimum price Tuesday night, as he’s set to start for Omer Asik and only needs about 15 minutes of court time to reach value. The Pelicans will likely go small often against the Wizards, which also benefits Ryan Anderson, but Ajinca should post solid stats for his price in a 15-20 minute role.

CASH GAME RANKS

This isn’t necessarily an order of who will score the most fantasy points. Rather, the rankings are aimed to find the best price, value and production combo to help you win cash games, also taking into account potential ownership levels for each player.

GUARD
1) Damian Lillard
2) Rajon Rondo
3) Gary Harris
4) Shelvin Mack
5) Victor Oladipo
6) Jrue Holiday
7) Emmanuel Mudiay
8) Bradley Beal
9) Evan Fournier

FORWARD/CENTER
1) Alexis Ajinca
2) Anthony Davis
3) Maurice Harkless
4) Gordon Hayward
5) Nikola Vucevic
6) Brook Lopez
7) Derrick Favors
8) Marcin Gortat
9) Aaron Gordon

As always, I’ll do my best to update this article as news breaks throughout the day if at possible and before the first game starts at 7 p.m., so follow me on Twitter @christripodi for last-minute updates and suggestions.

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