Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: February 3, 2016
Heavy Wednesdays are back in the first week of February, with a whopping 11 games as a follow-up to Tuesday’s short five-game slate. It’s a lot to digest, but it also means there are more viable plays to sort through. Let’s start with the Vegas lines.
Vegas lines and totals
Cleveland (-9.5) @ Charlotte – total of 205.5
Atlanta (-8.5) @ Philadelphia – total of 207
Indiana (-7) @ Brooklyn – total of 201
Detroit @ Boston (-3.5) – total of 207.5
Orlando @ Oklahoma City (-12.5) – total of 212
Golden State (-10.5) @ Washington – total of 224.5
Miami @ Dallas (-3.5) – total of 193.5
New Orleans @ San Antonio (-13) – total of 206.5
Denver @ Utah (-7) – total of 195.5
Chicago @ Sacramento (-2) – total of 213
Minnesota @ L.A. Clippers (-11.5) – total of 208.5
Warriors-Wizards stands out for obvious reasons, but the game does have some potential to turn into a blowout with the way the Wizards are playing of late. The same goes for Magic-Thunder, Pelicans-Spurs and even Wolves-Clippers, while Bulls-Kings has both a high total and a chance of staying close. Of course, the injury questions surrounding Rajon Rondo and DeMarcus Cousins complicate that one. With the caveat that there are multiple injuries that could really create value or move some mid-tier players into top plays, let’s break down a potential lopsided Wednesday slate.
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POINT GUARD
Rajon Rondo – Rondo might find himself sidelined by turf toe Wednesday but if he plays, he’ll get a great matchup against Derrick Rose and the Bulls and may see an increase in usage—or at the least, ball-handling and assist opportunities—if DeMarcus Cousins sits. Even if Cousins plays, Rondo is still an excellent option at a position that surprisingly lacks players I project to significantly exceed value near the top. If Rondo sits, Darren Collison becomes an absolute must-play, Cousins or no Cousins.
Jeremy Lin – With Kemba Walker forced to the sideline with a sore left knee that has seemingly been affecting his play, Lin becomes an elite value play against the Cavs. Lin’s usage rate skyrockets without Walker, Kyrie Irving is still a defensive turnstile and he’s put up more than a few monster nights recently. With Nicolas Batum also questionable, Lin could have even more responsibility on offense.
Cheap risk option: Every night the Thunder have a good matchup, Cameron Payne is almost always an option as a GPP punt. That’s especially true on a night like tonight, with OKC playing a game that could be over after three quarters, which could lead to Payne seeing plenty of garbage-time minutes. He showed no ill effects from his concussion in his return Monday, racking up eight points, three rebounds, two assists and two steals in just 13 minutes. Imagine if that playing time doubles Wednesday?
SHOOTING GUARD
Klay Thompson – Thompson has shown the ability to carry a DFS lineup in just three quarters of play, which is certainly a possibility tonight against the Wizards. The Warriors have struggled in their past two games away from The Oracle, however, despite the scorching Thompson. Klay actually shoots better on the road this season and is averaging 37 points and 5.3 three-pointers in his last three games. The Wizards allow SGs to go off on a consistent basis, and Thompson should be the driving force behind the Dubs’ likely win tonight.
Rodney Hood – Gary Harris is a nice player, and he plays solid on-ball defense, but he hasn’t been able to keep Denver out of the top tier of targets when it comes to playing shooting guards in DFS. Rodney Hood is Wednesday’s beneficiary of this great matchup and is on a nice roll lately, with four straight games of 19-plus points and a 22.2 scoring averaging in his last six. He’s even chipping in around three assists per game, and Hood should be in for a nice night.
Injury play: Jeremy Lamb – If Batum sits, both Lamb and Lin will be extremely busy Wednesday night. Lamb is returning from an injury of his own, but both will see an increase in usage rate with no other ball-dominant players in the starting lineup. If Lamb sees over 30 minutes, he could push for 30 fantasy points, even in a tough matchup with the Cavs.
Cheap risk option: After four straight games of not attempting double-digit shots, Jamal Crawford has hoisted 44 in his last three, making 25 during a mini-heater. He’s taking stats away from Chris Paul and J.J. Redick, which is no guarantee to continue, but Crawford is averaging 20.7 points in his past three games. He’ll see a lot of Zach LaVine as the main backup guard against the Wolves, and another big scoring night could very well be in the cards.
SMALL FORWARD
LeBron James – Michael Kidd-Gilchrist‘s return hasn’t done much for Charlotte’s SF defense, as both Kobe Bryant and Al-Farouq Aminu have had nice nights against the Hornets since his return. The King is next in line, and I have him rated as the top superstar of the night, although Cousins would be right there too if he plays. I’m expecting a 50-plus point performance from James, who is really trending up lately after a sluggish start to the season by his standards.
Rudy Gay – If DeMarcus Cousins bows out Wednesday, Gay is easily the top play at SF. Even if Cousins plays, though, Gay is still a viable option considering his current level of play even when Cousins was in the lineup. Jimmy Butler likely awaits Gay regardless, but Butler hasn’t looked like the same player of late and it’s showing in his defense, not just his offense. Whether it’s fatigue or an undisclosed injury, I’m not worried about Butler shutting down Gay on Wednesday.
Cheap risk option: Scoring in double figures in four straight games and five out of six, Stanley Johnson is stating his case for more playing time to head coach Stan Van Gundy, who’s done a decent job of listening. Johnson is averaging almost five additional minutes per game over his season average in his last four contests and while his ability to fill the stat sheet is still a work in progress, a matchup against the Celtics should play to his strengths, making him a very viable GPP flier while the price is still somewhat low.
POWER FORWARD
Kevin Love – New head coach Tyronn Lue has made it a priority to get Love more involved in the offense rather than standing him out at the three-point line, and the early results are very promising for Love’s value. He’s averaging 22.5 points, nine rebounds, three assists and over a steal and block per game in his last four and should have his way with Marvin Williams on Wednesday night.
Jordan Hill – Hill’s price is rising thanks to his recent surge without Ian Mahinmi, and Mahinmi won’t play Wednesday against the Nets either. Despite the price jump, Hill is still an elite DFS option in a good matchup with Brooklyn, as he’s averaging 18.5 points and 7.5 rebounds in 37 minutes per game over his last two. Don’t overthink this one, even though Hill isn’t exactly a great basketball player. Stats are stats.
Cheap risk option: Like Hill, Amar’e Stoudemire‘s price is rising, but he’s still cheap enough for this section in my book. I also hate pretty much every PF below him and have no desire to plug them into even the riskiest of GPP lineups. Assuming Hassan Whiteside remains out, Stoudemire could be in line for his third straight double-double against the Mavericks. While it would be a low-end double-double at best, those still count and Stoudemire remains a fantasy-point-per-minute player, even at this stage of his career.
CENTER
Karl-Anthony Towns – The center section is pretty much copy/pasted from my writeup Sunday, and from what my teams looked like last night. Anytime the Wolves have been in action of late, Karl-Anthony Towns has been a great option. He didn’t look for his shot that much against the Lakers on Tuesday while watching Andrew Wiggins go off, but Towns has the better matchup of the two Wednesday night against the Clippers. DeAndre Jordan will likely struggle to guard Towns on the ball, and I’m expecting a very nice bounce-back game from KAT, who was destroying tough defenses before Tuesday’s down night.
Gorgui Dieng – Unlike Towns, Dieng came through Tuesday against the Lakers and is averaging 18.3 points and 10 rebounds in his last four games. He’s been demolishing his price tag since taking over the starting PF job, and I don’t see that stopping against the Blake Griffin-less Clippers, who trot Luc Mbah a Moute out as their starting PF every night. Take advantage before Dieng’s price goes up even further.
Cheap risk option: The Spurs may be involved in a blowout Wednesday. So what time is it? Boban time! Boban Marjanovic has yet to get heavy run during competitive basketball games, but the Spurs seem likely to roll the Pelicans on Wednesday, which would provide Marjanovic the garbage-time stage he needs to be a viable GPP punt. If he gets to play most of the final stanza, he should have no problem meeting and/or exceeding value, as he’s double-doubled the last two times he played at least 17 minutes. It’s a lot of fun to watch the 7’3” beast treat opponents like they’re midgets.
CASH GAME RANKS
This isn’t necessarily an order of who will score the most DraftKings points. Rather, the rankings are aimed to find the best price, value and production combo to help you win cash games, also taking into account potential ownership levels for each player.
PG
1) Darren Collison (if Rajon Rondo sits)
2) Jeremy Lin
3) Rajon Rondo (if he plays)
4) J.J. Barea
5) Jeff Teague
6) George Hill
7) Russell Westbrook
8) Chris Paul
9) Stephen Curry
10) John Wall
11) Kyrie Irving
SG
1) Klay Thompson
2) Jeremy Lamb
3) Rodney Hood
4) Dwyane Wade
5) Monta Ellis
6) J.J. Redick
7) Garrett Temple
8) Kyle Korver
9) Jimmy Butler
10) Marco Belinelli
11) Victor Oladipo
SF
1) Rudy Gay (if DeMarcus Cousins sits, bump to No. 2 with Cousins)
2) LeBron James
3) Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
4) Gordon Hayward
5) Kevin Durant
6) Robert Covington
7) Harrison Barnes
8) Aaron Gordon
9) Paul George
PF
1) Jordan Hill
2) Kevin Love
3) DeMarcus Cousins (if he plays)
4) Taj Gibson
5) Amar’e Stoudemire
6) Marvin Williams
7) Ersan Ilyasova
8) Nerlens Noel
9) LaMarcus Aldridge
10) Derrick Favors
C
1) Gorgui Dieng
2) Karl-Anthony Towns
3) Al Horford
4) Rudy Gobert
5) Zaza Pachulia
6) Kosta Koufos (if Cousins sits)
7) Marcin Gortat
8) Jahlil Okafor
9) Nikola Jokic
10) Andrew Bogut
As always, I’ll do my best to update this article as news breaks throughout the day if at possible and before the first game starts at 7 p.m., so follow me on Twitter @christripodi for last-minute updates and suggestions.
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