Not the greatest start to the new year, but there are just some nights that things simply don’t go as anticipated and there’s really no reason to doubt the analysis, it just didn’t pan out this go around. Value play suggestions Norris Cole, Tony Allen, Austin Rivers and Jeff Withey (hitting on 4/5 ‘risk options’ felt gooooood) at least hit well above their marks, but with players like Russell Westbrook, Khris Middleton, Kawhi Leonard and Trey Burke flopping, it made those value plays not pay-off as they usually can. Anyways, we’re back at it again today, and I’ll be breaking down the three evening/night game slate as that is the three games featured in the primary DraftKings tournaments.

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Vegas lines and totals

Miami (+1) @ Washington — projected total of 198.5
Denver (?) @ Portland — waiting Vegas to post numbers
Phoenix (+1) @ LA Lakers — 208.5

One thing you have got to love about this trio of games is that there are no real blow out threats, nor are there any games with really low totals. All three games have pieces worth using and a lot of them will be tough choices between equally matched players at similar prices. With a slate this small, there’s no way you fade any game regardless, but this slate for being just three games has numerous appealing options.

POINT GUARD

Brandon Knight ($7,400) – Giggity! That’s the immediate thought when you see Knight sitting there at a non-elite player price against a team that is among the worst in the league at stopping opposing point guards. With a usage rate of 27% with Bledsoe out the past few games, Knight has been solid but not as ballerific in DFS as we’d expected. Well, I can’t see him letting us down tonight even on the second game of a back-to-back. I’ll be shocked and disappointed if Knight puts up anything less than 40 fantasy points (FPs) against the Lakers tonight.

Jameer Nelson ($5,400) – If Damian Lillard plays tonight, I’m going with Jordan Clarkson here instead, but if Lillard sits, Jameer is the lower-tier play of choice. McCollum has been a lot more generous to opposing point guards than Lillard was, and Jameer has been really good three of his last four games including a nice showing last night. The biggest thing is that the 33-year-old Nelson has played 40+ minutes in three of the last four games, so even if you view him as a sub-par player, playing that much it’d be hard for him to fail to hit value when it only takes 26 FPs to do so.

Cheap risk option: There are not many options (literally there are only 15 PGs to choose from) here tonight, and I’d love to give you a sneaky under $4K play, but I won’t be going cheaper at PG tonight than Ramon Sessions ($4,100). Sessions hasn’t been big, but he has managed a FP game log of 23 – 25 – 22 – 24 – 24 – 25 over the last six games.

SHOOTING GUARD

C.J. McCollum ($8,100) – If Lillard sits, McCollum is almost a must use. His usage rate has been 29.8% over the last four games, which is huge. He runs the show in all facets with Lillard out. Over the last three games CJ has shot a silly 39/73 (53%) from the field, and while he jumped to over $8K for the first time, he should definitely hit 36+ FPs again if Dame is out.

Will Barton ($7,300) – Welp. I thought last night was the night this guy would cool off but damn was I wrong. With Danilo Gallinari returning and Barton coming off the bench against a solid defensive team, it seemed the odds were against him, but 51 FPs later, he made me look a fool. I won’t be fading him tonight against a much less defensive threat in Portland, that’s for sure. 22+ shots in three straight games, off the bench or starting (if Gallo rests on a back-to-back), Barton is the man in the Denver offense, period.

Cheap risk option: Devin Booker ($4,200) is the cheapest guy on the slate at SG that I will be rostering. He’s played huge minutes the last two games, including 41 yesterday where he netted 35 FPs. He’s the cheap risk to go with if you need one at this spot.

SMALL FORWARD

Otto Porter ($6,000) – Otto has been driving the bus to DFS glory the past few games with 39, 35 and 50 FPs in those contests. Tonight he goes up against a Miami Heat team that has been leaking fantasy production out to opposing small forwards all season, including Porter who lit them up for 43.5 FPs the lone time they faced off this season. His price is too generous to pass up.

T.J. Warren ($5,100) – Warren has been great in the starting role he’s found himself in the past two games, putting up 29 and 19 points in them respectively. His scoring is what fuels his fantasy production and in the absence of Bledsoe, the Suns desperately need his scoring spark to try and stay in games. If Warren starts at the 3 again tonight, be sure to give him a look because he’s taken 15 and 19 shots as a starter, and should hit value (24 FPs) easily against the Lakers who allow all the points.

Cheap risk option: Mirza Teletovic ($3,900) is the only cheapie I will consider here tonight. Mirza has put up 23 and 26 FPs in the past two games, and as long as he continues to play minutes in the mid-20 range, he has the shot to beat value at this price.

POWER FORWARD

Chris Bosh ($7,500) – I mean, yuck! The PF position is disgusting tonight with just these six teams active. I rarely suggest Bosh, and even when he hits big, I don’t sweat it because using him is riskier than playing a 5×5 game of minesweeper with 10 mines. Tonight though, it’s basically pick Bosh or the next guy I talk about, or just punt the position totally praying for a cheapie to luck their way into 15 FPs. Bosh has been 4 FPs lower on the road this season, and he put up 40 against the Wiz at home last time, so does that mean he puts up 36 tonight? Sure, let’s go with that.

Darrell Arthur ($3,900) – When I originally wrote this up last night, I wasn’t aware that Kenneth Faried had suffered a neck injury and would almost certainly be out tonight. With that news, it bumps Arthur up to likely start or at least see a significant bump in minutes along with Nikola Jokic and Joffrey Lauvergne who was oddly a DNP-CD last night. Basically, this further cements Bosh as my play at PF tonight unless I take a stab at Arthur or Nance.

Cheap risk option: Larry Nance Jr. ($4,100) is my top punt guy here tonight, and you’d be thrilled if he landed you inside the 20 (FPs). He has shown a little promise recently with 37, 21, 18 and 25 FPs in his last four games, so if you want to draw straws at PF tonight, this is the one to go for.

CENTER

Marcin Gortat ($7,000) – Another position tat leaves you gasping for something more, but Gortat has been pretty money in the bank of late, averaging 35 FPs over the past ten games. He’ll definitely have his hands full with the young and athletic Hassan Whiteside, but one way or another, the Polish Hammer should bang his way to 30+.

Tyson Chandler ($4,100) – Am I crazy? Chandler only played 12 minutes yesterday, how could I possibly recommend him? Well, there’s only a handful of options and there’s more to him than meets the quick glancing eye. Chandler struggled with foul trouble from the jump yesterday and then the game got out of hand late, and really I see his lack of minutes yesterday as a plus for the 33-year-old vet headed into the second half of a back-to-back. Prior to yesterday’s whoops, Chandler posted three double-doubles in four games with 24, 28, 32 and 34 FPs in those four games. Tonight the Suns take on the Lakers who are the gift that keeps on giving to DFS players, as they basically suck at defending every position. Look for Tyson to punch out another double-double in L.A. tonight and land you around 25 FPs.

Cheap risk option: Chandler and Meyers Leonard ($4,100) are the go-to cheap plays at center tonight, and with the lack of options elsewhere I may go cheap here with these guys and bulk up at the guard spots. Leonard has averaged 26 FPs over the last five games for Portland, and he should get a lot of open shots against Faried who is not known to be much of a defensive threat on the perimeter.

Cash game rankings:

This isn’t necessarily an order of who will score the most DraftKings points. Rather, the rankings are aimed to find the best price, value and production combo to help you win cash games, also taking into account potential ownership levels for each player.

PG
1) Brandon Knight
2) Jameer Nelson (falls to 4 if Lillard plays)
3) Jordan Clarkson
4) John Wall
5) Ramon Sessions
6) Goran Dragic
(Note: If Lillard plays and is said to be full-go, he’d be my number two option.)

SG
1) C.J. McCollum (if Lillard is out, drops to 5 if Dame plays)
2) Will Barton
3) Dwyane Wade
4) Lou Williams (if Kobe is out, insert Kobe here if he plays)
5) Devin Booker

SF
1) Otto Porter
2) T.J. Warren (if he starts)
3) Danilo Gallinari (if active)
4) Jared Dudley
5) Mirza Teletovic
6) P.J. Tucker

PF
1) Chris Bosh
2) Julius Randle
3) Larry Nance Jr.
4) Darrell Arthur
5) Noah Vonleh (total punt risk)

C
1) Marcin Gortat
2) Tyson Chandler
3) Meyers Leonard
4) Hassan Whiteside (has the most upside, best GPP play)
5) Nikola Jokic

As always, stay locked to Twitter and Rotoworld for any late-breaking news the hour before the first game tips at 6 p.m. EST. I’ll do my best to update this article as news breaks throughout the day, but the best way to get the latest is always to follow me on Twitter @BigZack44, where I’ll do my best to break down the implications of any late scratches or lineup changes.

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