Fantasy BasketballFront Office

Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: November 1, 2015

Sunday is the sixth day since NBA basketball came back into our lives, and things are starting to come into focus as far as DFS goes. Certain players continue to play above their price points while rotations are starting to shake out as well. By the end of the weekend, most teams will have three games played which, while still a small sample size, gives us some idea into team’s rotations and player roles.

[cointent_lockedcontent article_labels=”basketball”]

Vegas lines and totals

Atlanta Hawks (-1.5) @ Charlotte Hornets – total of 193
San Antonio Spurs (-5.5) @ Boston Celtics – total of 201.5
Milwaukee Bucks @ Toronto Raptors (-7) – total of 202.5
Houston Rockets @ Miami Heat (-2) – total of 205.5
Orlando Magic @ Chicago Bulls (-7.5) – total of 200.5
Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-12) – total of 211
Dallas Mavericks (-3) @ Los Angeles Lakers – total of 213.5

Sunday projects to be a good day in terms of DFS scoring, as the only game with a sub-average over/under is the 2 p.m. matchup between the Hawks and Hornets, which is only in play on the early or all-day slates on DK along with Spurs-Celtics. I’ll include potential plays from these games but as two of three lowest-scoring projections, there may not be many. Per usual, below is a reminder of the DraftKings scoring system.

Point = +1 PT
Made 3pt. shot = +0.5 PTs
Rebound = +1.25 PTs
Assist = +1.5 PTs
Steal = +2 PTs
Block = +2 PTs
Turnover = -0.5 PTs
Double-Double = +1.5PTs (MAX 1 PER PLAYER: Points, Rebounds, Assists, Blocks, Steals)
Triple-Double = +3PTs (MAX 1 PER PLAYER: Points, Rebounds, Assists, Blocks, Steals)

Now, for the top options and values at each position:

POINT GUARD

Russell Westbrook ($10,300) – Westbrook is absolutely on fire and while his average production looks insane at just under 66 points per game, Friday’s double-overtime thriller in Orlando certainly helped boost that average. With that said, Nuggets-Thunder has the second-highest over-under of the night, and rookie point guard Emmanuel Mudiay is likely to have his head spinning by the end of the first quarter. Westbrook is my top play on Sunday’s slate.

Isaiah Thomas ($6,800) – Thomas has yet to play 30 minutes in a game through his first two, but has scored at least 25 points in both with at least 16 shot attempts. His usage rate off the bench is insane and he’s way too quick for the likes of Tony Parker and Patty Mills to cover effectively. Thomas’ price will skyrocket into the 7000s with another big game, so Sunday is a great buy-low opportunity.

Goran Dragic ($6,100) – Dragic hasn’t hit his stride yet with Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade as usage machines with the Heat at full strength, but Sunday’s game with the Rockets is as good as any to get on track. The Heat usually don’t play games with projected totals above 205 points, making Dragic a viable tournament options as a near-lock to go low owned. He’s a better player than he’s shown so far this season.

Cheap risk option: J.J. Barea ($3,300) – If Deron Williams is ruled out of Sunday’s nightcap early in the day, Barea would jump Dragic as my third point guard play of the day. With Williams’ status still uncertain, however, Barea is little more than a tournament punt with Chandler Parsons also potentially returning to the court. If Williams sits though, Barea gets a Lakers team that just can’t stop point guards; even the ever-disappointing Rajon Rondo had his way with them Friday.

SHOOTING GUARD

DeMar Derozan ($7,400) – Derozan looks great so far this season even though he’s only shooting 37.5 percent from the field, as he’s averaging six rebounds and six assists through two games; he’s never even averaged five of either in a season. Whether his well-rounded game is to be believed or not, he looks to be underpriced in a non-intimidating matchup with the Bucks. Shooting guard value is hard to find and when it’s available near the top, that’s a great thing.

Kobe Bryant ($6,800) – Bryant was slowed by an illness Friday against the Kings, but still managed 21.5 fantasy points in 22 minutes. He should be closer to 30 minutes in this high-scoring game, and will see a lot of Gary Harris in the starting lineup. Harris is a feisty defender but Bryant is a usage monster, and his price is fair. Expect 30-35 fantasy points from Bryant in this one.

Khris Middleton ($5,500) – Middleton disappointed with Giannis Antetokounmpo suspended for opening night, but bounced back with an 18-point, five-assist game Friday against the Wizards. Middleton will be matched up with Derozan who, despite his offensive prowess, has never been a good defender, and the Bucks’ big-money shooting guard is a solid bet for somewhere in the neighborhood of 25-30 points Sunday.

Cheap risk option: Will Barton ($3,300) – As long as Wilson Chandler remains out and Barton’s price remains near the bottom of the barrel, I’ll continue to recommend him as a cheap GPP option. He saw 30 minutes of action at the expense of Harris on Friday and responded with 27 fantasy points despite hitting just four of 14 shots. Barton is a stat factory when he gets minutes and should pay off his price tag with even 20 minutes of floor time. If he gets hot and pushes for 30 minutes, he could be a big part of a high-scoring tournament lineup.

SMALL FORWARD

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($6,100) – If Friday’s season debut is any indication, Antetokounmpo is an unbelievably underpriced asset right now. He was explosive and aggressive against the Wizards, getting to the free-throw line 10 times on his way to a 27-point, nine-rebound, three-steal gem. As a top candidate to take a huge leap in his third NBA season, even a matchup with a good defender like DeMarre Carroll won’t scare me off Antetokounmpo. Jason Kidd is very willing to play him at any position on the floor to create mismatches.

DeMarre Carroll ($5,500) – If a bigger offensive role is what Carroll sought in free agency, aside from money, he found it in Toronto. After averaging fewer than 10 field-goal attempts per game the last two seasons in Atlanta, Carroll has taken at least 14 shots in both games so far this season. Shots equal points, which equal DFS value, and Carroll is playing like a guy who deserves to be priced in the mid-6000s. Antetokounmpo’s length is a slight concern, but Carroll is capable of paying off value with production in ancillary categories as well.

Kawhi Leonard ($7,800) – It’s rare to find a full slate with three attractive options at small forward, let alone a seven-gamer, but here we are. The only reason Leonard is third on this list is because his price is the highest, but he’s legitimately underpriced as well based on early returns and his increased usage rate. Leonard is becoming San Antonio’s alpha dog, and I’m not going to dissuade anybody from paying up for him if they want to.

Cheap risk option: Aaron Gordon ($4,400) – Usually I try to find a player under $4,000 for this spot, but there isn’t a potential 25-fantasy point scorer in the bunch. Gordon hasn’t played 20 minutes in either of Orlando’s games this season, even Friday’s double-overtime bonanza, but he’s still managed at least 22 fantasy points in each game. The risk here is his low minutes but if Evan Fournier stumbles and Gordon sees 25-plus minutes, you’ll be glad he’s in your GPP lineup.

POWER FORWARD

Marvin Williams ($3,900) – Marvin Williams has always had a tendency to be a disappointing fantasy player, but almost anybody playing 37 minutes per game can pay off a $3,900 price tag. Williams has two double-doubles in two games this season and has attempted at least 10 shots in each, including 10 three-pointers. Paul Millsap is a tough matchup, but Williams just scored 36.5 fantasy points against him in Atlanta on Friday. If you’re paying up everywhere else, Williams is the best value of the day.

Clint Capela ($4,000) – With Terrence Jones and Dwight Howard out Sunday, Capela will move into the starting lineup. Sunday is an excellent value day at the power forward position, and I’ll be starting Williams on the all-day slate with Capela in my F spot as well. Houston has just three healthy big men; Capela, Harrell and Chuck Hayes. A 35- or 40-minute night is possible for both Capela and Harrell.

Montrezl Harrell ($3,300) – Harrell was initially the cheap risk option here, but now both he and Capela should start with Dwight Howard sitting in addition to Jones. Both will likely see all the minutes they can handle, and could pay off with 25-plus fantasy points. The floor here is very, very high, as is the ceiling at this price.

Cheap risk option: Dwight Powell ($3,100) – With Harrell graduating to a top play with news of Howard’s absence, Powell becomes the cheap GPP option, although it’s hard to view him as much more than a punt. Like Aaron Gordon, he has yet to see 20 minutes in a game, but Powell is averaging 19.5 fantasy points, has a solid usage rate with the second rate and has shown the ability to grab rebounds. If this game were to somehow get out of hand and he saw 25 minutes, he could pay off very nicely.

CENTER

Zaza Pachulia ($5,300) – Pachulia disappointed Friday after I recommended him against the Clippers, but I’ll go back to the well again for a juicy matchup with the Lakers. Roy Hibbert has produced nice numbers on his own including 3.5 blocks per game, but his slow feet make him less of an elite defender than the block totals would imply and centers have hurt the Lakers, even if those centers were Karl-Anthony Towns and DeMarcus Cousins, who are far better than Pachulia. I don’t love the position Sunday so while I don’t have 100 percent trust in Pachulia, I see a player with a 20-point floor at worst who fits in most of my lineups and allows me to roster the guys I do trust.

Roy Hibbert ($5,400) – Roy Hibbert would also fit in most of my lineups at a similar price to Pachulia, and you could argue for him in the top spot here. I can never fully trust Hibbert either, but I think his upside is higher for GPP purposes than Pachulia’s simply due to the potential for a few more minutes.

Cheap risk option: Nikola Jokic ($3,300) – After playing just four minutes in the season opener, Jokic saw 18 minutes of court time Friday against Minnesota and nearly double-doubled with 10 points and nine rebounds. He’s a very talented player who could seriously push Joffrey Lauvergne for minutes with Jusuf Nurkic on the shelf, and has the potential for a 30-point fantasy night if he even sees half of the center minutes. Problem is, he could go right back to the bench.

Cash Game Ranks

This isn’t necessarily an order of who will score the most DraftKings points. Rather, the rankings are aimed to find the best price, value and production combo to help you win cash games, also taking into account potential ownership levels for each player.

PG
1) Russell Westbrook
2) Isaiah Thomas
3) Goran Dragic
4) Kyle Lowry
5) J.J. Barea

SG
1) DeMar Derozan
2) Kobe Bryant
3) Khris Middleton
4) Dwyane Wade
5) James Harden

SF
1) Giannis Antetokounmpo
2) DeMarre Carroll
3) Kawhi Leonard
4) Tobias Harris
5) Kevin Durant

PF
1) Marvin Williams
2) Montrezl Harrell
3) Clint Capela
4) Chris Bosh
5) Paul Millsap

C
1) Zaza Pachulia
2) Roy Hibbert
3) Al Horford
4) Nikola Vucevic

As always, stay locked to Twitter and RotoWorld for any late-breaking news the hour before the first game tips at 2 p.m. EST. I’ll do my best to update this article as news breaks throughout the day, but the best way to get the latest is always to follow me on Twitter @christripodi, where I’ll do my best to break down the implications of any late scratches or lineup changes.
[/cointent_lockedcontent]

Previous post

2015 Fantasy Football: Week 8 Buy/Sell

Next post

Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: November 2, 2015