First off, I apologize for missing out on the Sunday slate, I was under the weather and couldn’t come through, but I am back and feeling a good bit better today. Today we’re looking over the six game Monday night DFS slate on DraftKings. I’ll be giving my top plays and values at each position as well as my positional rankings at the end. Most everything here is targeted towards cash games unless I mention it specifically as a GPP play. I do however use most of the guys mentioned here in both cash and GPP games, I’m just a bit more aggressive and/or contrarian when it comes to making GPP lineups. OK, let’s get right to the analysis of tonight’s slate.

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Vegas lines and totals

Dallas (-8.5) @ Philadelphia — 199
Pacers (+4.5) @ Chicago — 199
Boston (+5.5) @ Houston — 207.5
Oklahoma City (+1) @ Memphis — 198.5
Portland (+12.5) @ San Antonio — 203.5
LA Lakers (+11.5) @ Phoenix — 206

I’m not overly concerned about any blowouts tonight, and hell, the past two times I have been have ended up burning me. Houston and Phoenix are the two teams projected to score the most tonight, and they’re both loaded with fantasy producers, so we’ll target them quite a bit. The slate has a ton of DFS studs, so it’s all about how we use them and the value guys we put around them. The biggest question of the night is, to pay up for Westbrook or to fade him on a back-to-back against a tough Memphis team when his price is an astounding $12,200.

Let’s go over my top plays and values of the night:

POINT GUARD

Russell Westbrook ($12,200) – I’m not going to not tell you to try to find a way to fit him in a lineup. I will likely use Westbrook more in GPP lineups, but I really do think that 45 DK points is his floor which is something you can’t say about anyone else. In cash games it is hard to roll with Westy knowing you have to go so much cheaper at a couple of other slots, when there’s guys like these next two for so much cheaper.

Damian Lillard ($8,700) – For $3.5K less, you can roster Damian Lillard going up against Tony Parker, I mean, that’s pretty damn enticing if you ask me. Although, I will try to run a GPP lineup that includes both of them. Dame was off in his last game against Memphis after a stretch of top-notch showings, and I fully expect him to hit 40+ fantasy points tonight even in San Antonio. The Spurs are seventh worst as far as 3-pointer FG% allowed, and that is music to Lillard’s ears, who was 5/8 from distance against the Spurs last week.

Brandon Knight ($7,000) – You would think this guy is dead to me after Saturday night. I make this guy my DFS article cover boy, rave about his consistency and matchup and he repays me with, 12.25 fantasy points??? Well, that’s DFS for you, it can be cruel, but it can be even crueler if you refuse to forgive and forget let downs like Knight had on Saturday. I’ll have a ton of Knight in my lineups tonight because his price is so fair and the matchup against the putrid Lakers who are one of the worst in the league at stopping opposing PGs is just too good to hold a grudge over. Look for a bounce-back performance sitting right back in that 35 DK point range like we’re use to seeing from BK.

Cheap risk option: Mario Chalmers ($3,200) is a punt guy I will look at tonight as he’s coming off two straight good showings on his new team. We know he’s going to see right about 19 minutes, maybe more if Conley finds himself in foul trouble, and he’s averaging 24 DK points after two games in this role on the Grizzlies. There’s surely reason to be scared of a dud, but he’s $3.2K and the team doesn’t have a third PG, so you know his minutes are a sure bet.

SHOOTING GUARD

James Harden ($10,300) – Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley are strong defenders, no question. They even did a pretty good job last night holding Russell Westbrook to 5/20 shooting, but Russ did get to the foul line for 17 FTA, so imagine how many times Harden will get there. One of the top plays tonight for sure and he’s put up 54+ DK points four of the last five games. Fade at your own risk.

Monta Ellis ($5,800) – I don’t need to tell you that Eric Bledsoe and Jimmy Butler are both solid plays tonight, and I was splitting hairs on which to write-up, so instead I decided to write-up my next option in line and just show my liking of the other two in my positional rankings below. Ellis should be a decent value play at SG tonight either way, but the real kicker here pends on George Hill who is questionable with an illness tonight. If Hill sits (and Rodney Stucky is questionable also), Monta should see a big uptick in both usage and minutes at PG, and it’s A LOT better to be guarded by Derrick Rose than Jimmy B, believe me. I’ll probably be paying up at SG tonight, but if Hill is out, I’ll definitely have several shares of Monta. UPDATE: George Hill and Rodney Stuckey have both been ruled out, so all systems are go for Monta tonight.

Cheap risk option: C.J. Miles ($4,100) is always a guy I like to look at as a cheap value play for my G slot. Miles gets minutes in the mid-20s and plenty of shots to beat value most nights at both SG and SF for the Pacers. If Hill and/or Stuckey is out, it’s even better for Miles opportunity.

SMALL FORWARD

Paul George ($9,200) – His price is up $600 from the start of last week, but it’s for good reason. A lot of people were hesitant to trust George in season long drafts this off-season, and they’re all regretting it now. As for DFS, let the numbers talk: 50, 64, 56, 43, 44.5 and 50 fantasy points in his last six games. George is playing minutes at PF and SF and has proven to be a matchup nightmare for most opposing PFs. No matter where they slot him, he’s an elite scorer while also averaging 8.8 boards, 4.6 assists, 1.5 steals and shooting 38% from beyond the arc. Stud.

Trevor Ariza ($5,500) – Boston has been bad at defending opposing small forwards and Ariza is a guy who can punish a team when he’s left open. I see plenty of those opportunities tonight for Ariza when the Boston defenders collapse on Harden. This is just one of the main guys I’ll look to if it’s a lineup that I am not using George, because you know he’ll get the minutes and he’ll have the opportunity to hit above value for this price and above his 25 DK points per game average. Update: Ariza has been listed as questionable due to his groin. Keep an eye on this. Dropping him slightly in the rankings due to this new info.

Cheap risk option: Jeff Green ($3,500) replaced Courtney Lee in the starting lineup for the Grizzlies last night and showed out with the chance he was given. The Grizz have needed another scoring spark in their first unit and Green came through with 21 points last night, so I expect them to roll with that starting five again tonight against OKC, the team who Green started out with. With no KD for the Thunder, Green should see favorable matchups and be able to crush his $3.5K price tag, but he’s always one to disappoint, so don’t feel TOO confident.

POWER FORWARD

Nerlens Noel ($6,800) – I’m a bit overly infatuated with Noel tonight who has had two total duds in two of the Sixers last three games that he’s been active for, but there’s too much to like here tonight. Noel will should easily post his fifth double-double of the season tonight against Dallas who will have Dirk Nowtizki and Dwight Powell guarding/blocking out the Sixer big man. The Spurs may try and over-feed LaMarcus Aldridge against his old team again, but I still like Noel who is priced just fourth highest despite the best matchup of the top guys at PF.

Dirk Nowitzki ($6,500) – On the flipside of the above mentioned matchup is Dirk, who will get to toy with the young Noel in the high post all night. I hope Noel is ready to get worked by the old schooler tonight, because Dirk is going leave him having nightmares of “the Dirk fade.” The Mavs rested Dirk on Saturday, so Nowitzki has had a couple nights off, so he’ll be extra fresh for this game.

Cheap risk option: There’s two minimum guys that I will look to use as punt plays tonight — but mostly in GPP lineups to fit in multiple studs — and those are Noah Vonleh ($3,000) if he starts again and JaMychal Green ($3,000). Vonleh started for the Blazers on Sunday, and while he only played 23 minutes and put up 17 DK points, I still like that from a minimum priced guy. JaMychal has surprisingly seen a spot in the Grizzlies rotation each of the two games he’s been with the team, playing 18 minutes Friday and 23 minutes last night. It’s a risk, but at the cheapest price possible, I like the punt potentials here.

CENTER

Dwight Howard ($7,300) – Dwight is the best center on the board tonight all things considered, and although he’s also priced the highest, he’s still not over-priced. I expect nothing less than a big double-double and a few blocks for the self-proclaimed ‘Superman’ tonight. The Celtics really don’t have anyone who has both the height and strength to stop him from doing whatever he wants in the paint.

Mason Plumlee ($5,500) – We got to see this matchup a few days back and Mason showed up well with a nine point, nine rebound, four assist game against the Spurs. Plumlee has been pretty dependable in the paint for the Blazers this season and I expect that to continue tonight. I have the Duke alum projected at 28 DK points which is solid at his price, and he even has upside on top of that, really.

Cheap risk option: Ian Mahinmi ($3,900) is the only cheap center I am considering tonight. You know he’ll get 25-30 minutes and while he’s not much of a scorer, he does usually get nice boards with a couple steals or blocks. He’s averaging 22 DK points over his last six games, so he’s nothing special, but if you decide to go big elsewhere, he’s a decently safe option here.

Cash game rankings:

This isn’t necessarily an order of who will score the most DraftKings points. Rather, the rankings are aimed to find the best price, value and production combo to help you win cash games, also taking into account potential ownership levels for each player.

PG
1) Damian Lillard
2) Brandon Knight
3) Russell Westbrook
4) Jordan Clarkson
5) Isaiah Thomas
6) Derrick Rose
7) Mario Chalmers
8) Marcus Smart

SG
1) James Harden
2) Monta Ellis
3) Eric Bledsoe
4) Jimmy Butler
5) Wesley Matthews
6) C.J. Miles

SF
1) Paul George
2) Jeff Green (if he starts)
3) Jae Crowder
4) Trevor Ariza (if he plays, questionable)
5) Kawhi Leonard
6) Corey Brewer (if Ariza is ruled out)

PF
1) Nerlens Noel
2) Dirk Nowitzki
3) LaMarcus Aldridge
4) Terrence Jones
5) Jared Sullinger
6) Serge Ibaka
7) Dwight Powell
8) Noah Vonleh (if he starts)
9) JaMychal Green

C
1) Dwight Howard
2) Mason Plumlee
3) Jahlil Okafor
4) Marc Gasol
5) Ian Mahinmi
6) Zaza Pachulia
7) Lavoy Allen

As always, stay locked to Twitter and Rotoworld for any late-breaking news the hour before the first game tips at 7 p.m. EST. I’ll do my best to update this article as news breaks throughout the day, but the best way to get the latest is always to follow me on Twitter @BigZack44, where I’ll do my best to break down the implications of any late scratches or lineup changes.

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