Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: November 23, 2015
While I witnessed the Sunday NFL DFS slate get absolutely tanked by injuries, especially to running backs, it was a much better night for NBA DFS. I really hope all of you guys had as nice of a night as I did on DraftKings based on my recommended plays. I made four lineups and played in two 50/50s and four GPPs and cashed everywhere. I don’t like to dwell on “I could haves,” but if I made one minor tweak in my top lineup, which was a play I had in others but hedged in this one, I would have taken down a GPP for the first time, but instead, it was just another solid finish. I’m sure everyone could say the same on any given night though, hence why I don’t beat myself up about things like that. It’s just always good to finish a night in the green.
Today we’ll be breaking down the seven-game Monday night slate on DraftKings. So let’s get right to my top plays, values and rankings.
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Vegas lines and totals
Sacramento (+4.5) @ Charlotte — 207
Orlando (+9.5) @ Cleveland — 196
New York (+5) @ Miami — 191.5
Philadelphia (+7) @ Minnesota — 198
Detroit (-2) @ Milwaukee — 191
Phoenix (+8.5) @ San Antonio — 197
Oklahoma City (?) @ Utah — ??? (will be added when Vegas posts it)
Man, I am not a betting man when it comes to lines, over/unders and such, but I will just say — maybe just being a homer here — that I will be surprised if Cleveland beats Orlando by 10 or more tonight. The Magic may have flaws and Scott Skiles may be awful at managing his rotations, but they seem to be right in every game they play. That is a big total for the Kings/Hornets game, really makes you want to target the heavy hitters in that battle. Other than that game though, most are sitting pretty close with mild totals just shy of 200.
POINT GUARD
Russell Westbrook ($12,300) – As seen again last night, when Durant is out, you start your lineups with Westbrook no matter the price, rinse, repeat. His last four games including last night: 72, 68, 63, 65. I hesitated for a split second when I saw they took on Utah tonight who have the twin towers guarding the paint, then I slapped myself for being so ridiculous for hesitating. Friends don’t let friends fade Westbrook.
Kemba Walker ($6,900) – Due to a mix between hight prices, tough matchups and just lack of confidence, I don’t really love the four PGs priced behind Westbrook tonight (Rondo, Knight, Jackson and Rubio), but I do really like Kemba in the game with the highest total on the slate. Kemba is priced solidly to hit above value in a plus matchup and he’s reasonably hot lately going for 44, 30, 46, 40 and 39 DK points over the last five games.
Matthew Dellavedova ($4,500) – With Mo Williams doubtful tonight, the Deli is open for business! The Magic haven’t been great at stopping opposing point guards, but even if they were, Dova relies a lot more on his assists than he does his scoring. At this price, he’ll probably be locked into my G slot in most or all lineups.
Cheap risk option: Since this is labeled as a “risk” option, I can fearlessly say that Jose Calderon ($3,800) hasn’t been too bad lately and is a definite punt option tonight. Jose has played 30+ minutes the last three games and pumped out 19, 31 and 25 DK points in those games. The Heat have been solid against point guards, but at this price, Calderon shouldn’t have too much problem at least hitting at value.
SHOOTING GUARD
Andrew Wiggins ($6,900) – Wiggins is sliding over to small forward to start out games now with the shooting guard value play, Kevin Martin, stepping in for Tayshaun Prince. This is a move that was well overdue, Martin provides the first unit with another scoring threat and Prince really wasn’t doing much of anything on either end deserving of sticking as a starter. Wiggins fits better as a small forward anyways, so this is a plus for him also going into this game against the winless Sixers. Getting his usually 15+ shots, Wiggins should hit above 30 fantasy points for the fourth straight game.
Rodney Hood ($5,000) – Those of you who read my season long fantasy NBA content this off-season, know that I have been praising Hood even months before the season began. This kid is truly a baller and he’s starting to show out a lot more recently. The Jazz know they’re going to need their best scorers to step up in this one and Hood will be glad to. Dion Waiters will be serving him up with open looks all night, and Rod will gladly make him pay for it.
Cheap risk option: Probably my top SG play tonight is the aforementioned, Kevin Martin ($3,900). Yeah, he’s been frozen cold shooting recently, but he has always said he prefers to be a starter and with him unsure of how safe he is in the the starting five, I can’t imagine he’ll put up a dud.
SMALL FORWARD
Carmelo Anthony ($8,500) – I like all of the top three healthy small forwards tonight, Melo I just slightly prefer over LeBron because he’s $1,600 cheaper and he tends to step it up for the bigger games, which Miami counts as in my book. Melo hasn’t bee the most consistent this year, but he’s been above value for this price point more often than not. Another 40+ point DK showing seems likely tonight for the scorer supreme.
Kawhi Leonard ($8,200) – Now, if it’s consistent you want, Kawhi has put up 35+ DK points in nine straight games! The guy simply does it all for the Spurs on a nightly basis. He shoots efficiently from the field, racks up boards, grabs a few steals and usually gets you a block a game. I forgot to mention that he’s also hit three 3-pointers in four straight games. Melo may be the better GPP upside play, but Kawhi 5-0 is the ideal cash game play (but I’ll have him in some of both).
Cheap risk option: I have a hard time not using Mirza Teletovic ($3,000) every chance I get lately. I had Mirza in a lot of spots last night just because he gets minutes and is minimum price, and while 18 DK points wasn’t amazing, at $3K him doing even that was fantastic and allowed me so much more flexibility elsewhere. Shabazz Muhammad ($3,000) is another punt option as it’s been stated that he’ll see more minutes after the demotion for Tayshaun, but I personally am going to wait on that one. While he may see 24 minutes, he’s been seeing 17 and doing nada, so while it’s something to glance at, I’m going other ways for now.
POWER FORWARD
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,300) –This is my top non-Westbrook play of the night. he Boogie Man takes on a weak defensive big man core and is in the highest projected scoring game of the night, yes please! DMC has managed 60+ DK points in three of the last four games and with Charlotte having nobody to answer for what all Cousins can do, he’s going to find his way on to most my lineups.
Chris Bosh ($7,700) – Bosh is quietly having a really good season, and he’s not really getting the attention due to LeBron being gone nowadays. Bosh has been really great for DFS purposes scoring 37+ DK points in eight of the last nine Heat games. If you fade away or can’t find a lineup you like well enough when rostering both Cousins and Westbrook, Bosh makes for a good secondary option. Bosh likes spotlight and with so much shining on rookie Kristaps Porzingis, there’s no better way to find yourself in spotlight than to steal someone elses.
Tristan Thompson ($5,300) – With Timofey Mozgov out, Tristan steps in to a much larger role now for the Cavs. While I don’t love this matchup against the Magic, his price and ability to put up double-doubles draws me to him as a nice mid-level play despite the matchup.
Cheap risk option: Jabari Parker ($4,200) is the lowest priced PF that I am looking at tonight, and he’s been pretty dependable considering all of the concerns surrounding him. 21+ DK points in three of the last four and the game in there that he didn’t produce, he still at least got you 17. I’m likely going other ways tonight here, but if you need a cheaper option, Jabari isn’t that bad of one.
CENTER
Karl-Anthony Towns ($7,200) – I feel like calling this kid a rookie is a slight to how good he’s been this season, but despite this being his first year as a pro, Towns has been incredible. This should be a fun showdown between KAT and fellow rookie big man, Jahlil Okafor. Okafor has shown that he’s prone to allowing his shot to be blocked as have the Sixers as a whole. Well, aside from being a good scorer and rebounder, KAT is a blocks master averaging 2.4 per game already. Another double-double and a few blocks should be cake tonight.
Tim Duncan ($6,300) – The old man has still got game and he should let it show again tonight against the Suns who he’s always been terrific against. With LaMarcus Aldridge uncertain for tonight’s game, Duncan may see some extra shots and boards as well. I think he’s a nice mid-level play tonight if you want a not so pricey 30+ DK point night, and there’s more upside if LMA does indeed sit.
Nikola Vucevic ($7,000) – If you want to up your chances of winning a GPP, sometimes you have to go against the grain and nobody is going to be playing Vucci Mane tonight. Scott Skiles has benched him late the past two games and it’s hurt his fantasy numbers for sure, so with a dropped price, and the hope that he goes back to his normal minutes, there’s definite upside here, although a ton of risk, too. Don’t use him a lot, but don’t be afraid to throw him in one lineup where you feel extra ballsy.
Cheap risk option: Kostas Koufos ($4,000) is probably not a center I want to run with tonight, but if you go money heavy elsewhere, you could do a lot worse than the Kings big man. He does pretty well with his 20 minutes a night and could help you at least tread water if you punt C tonight. Think 15-20 DK points.
Cash game rankings:
This isn’t necessarily an order of who will score the most DraftKings points. Rather, the rankings are aimed to find the best price, value and production combo to help you win cash games, also taking into account potential ownership levels for each player.
PG
1) Russell Westbrook
2) Matthew Dellavedova
3) Kemba Walker
4) Brandon Knight
5) T.J. McConnell
6) Tony Parker
SG
1) Kevin Martin
2) Andrew Wiggins
3) Rodney Hood
4) Jeremy Lamb
5) Arron Afflalo
6) Dion Waiters
7) J.R. Smith
SF
1) Kawhi Leonard
2) Carmelo Anthony
3) LeBron James
4) Mirza Teletovic
5) Evan Fournier
6) Gordon Hayward
PF
1) DeMarcus Cousins
2) Chris Bosh
3) Tristan Thompson
4) Kevin Love
5) Jabari Parker
C
1) Karl-Anthony Towns
2) Tim Duncan
3) Andre Drummond
4) Rudy Gobert
5) Kostas Koufos
6) Al Jefferson
7) Jahlil Okafor
As always, stay locked to Twitter and Rotoworld for any late-breaking news the hour before the first game tips at 7 p.m. EST. I’ll do my best to update this article as news breaks throughout the day, but the best way to get the latest is always to follow me on Twitter @BigZack44, where I’ll do my best to break down the implications of any late scratches or lineup changes.
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