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Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: November 25, 2015

The NBA is off on Thanksgiving Thursday to make way for the all-day slate of NFL games, which means we have a big 12-game slate planned for Wednesday before the league goes on hiatus for a day. With 24 of 30 teams in actions, there’s tons of injury news and good matchups to make for some exciting plays in the last NBA action before the holiday.

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Vegas lines and totals

New York Knicks @ Orlando Magic (-1.5) – total of 195.5
Washington Wizards @ Charlotte Hornets (-2.5) – total of 210
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics (-10.5) – total of 199.5
Miami Heat (-1.5) @ Detroit Pistons – total of 187.5
Cleveland Cavaliers (-1.5) @ Toronto Raptors – total 198
Memphis Grizzlies @ Houston Rockets (-3.5) – total of 197.5
Sacramento Kings @ Milwaukee Bucks (-5) – total of 207
Brooklyn Nets @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-12.5) – total of 211
Atlanta Hawks (-3) @ Minnesota Timberwolves – total of 205
Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs (-9) – total of 196
New Orleans Pelicans @ Phoenix Suns (-4.5) – total of 212
Utah Jazz @ Los Angeles Clippers (-4.5) – total of 196.5

Five games stick out here with over/unders at 205 or higher, while the Miami-Detroit game projects to be slow and low-scoring with two of the bottom eight teams in pace playing. That game likely won’t see many suggestions below, but there are still some solid lines Wednesday. As always, here’s a breakdown of the DraftKings scoring system.

Point = +1 PT
Made 3pt. shot = +0.5 PTs
Rebound = +1.25 PTs
Assist = +1.5 PTs
Steal = +2 PTs
Block = +2 PTs
Turnover = -0.5 PTs
Double-Double = +1.5PTs (MAX 1 PER PLAYER: Points, Rebounds, Assists, Blocks, Steals)
Triple-Double = +3PTs (MAX 1 PER PLAYER: Points, Rebounds, Assists, Blocks, Steals)

Now, for the top options and values at each position:

POINT GUARD

Brandon Knight ($8,200) – Knight gets the prime matchup of the night against the Pelicans, and it’s possible the Suns will still be without Eric Bledsoe, making Knight the primary ball-handler and putting more of the offensive load on his shoulders. Knight did turn the ball over eight times without Bledsoe against the Spurs, but this matchup is far less imposing. Knight is still a good play with Bledsoe, but if the latter sits, Knight will turn into one of the top plays on the night.

Kemba Walker ($7,400) – Walker is rolling of late and while John Wall is a tough matchup for any opposing point guard, it’s tough to discount how good Walker has been. He’s beaten value in five of his past six games, and scored at least 44 fantasy points in three of the four. The Hornets are playing slightly up in pace tonight, making Walker an excellent play with a good chance to score in the low 40s.

Mike Conley ($6,800) – Like Knight, Conley has a great matchup on Wednesday, as he gets to go up against Jason Terry and the Rockets. Like Walker, Conley is playing extremely well of late and outperforming his price by a relatively significant margin. Zach Randolph was held out again on Tuesday and while another absence would benefit Conley, he was playing well before Randolph went down. This matchup is unlikely to slow him down.

Cheap risk option: Mario Chalmers ($4,100) – Chalmers has beaten value in five of six games since joining the Grizzlies via trade, and an uptempo matchup with the Rockets fits his style of play, as does Memphis’ need for a volume three-point shooter off the bench. Chalmers is averaging just under 25 fantasy points per game over six games in his new digs, so take advantage of the low price while you still can.

SHOOTING GUARD

Eric Bledsoe ($8,400) – This pick is obviously contingent on Bledsoe’s health, but if he returns Wednesday, he’ll have missed just one game with a very minor sore knee. It’s usually wise to avoid players returning from injury, but that’s generally a better strategy when players have missed multiple games. Bledsoe’s matchup isn’t quite as juicy as Knight’s against Eric Gordon, but it’s still good and he’s a solid play himself at a much shallower position than his teammate.

Andrew Wiggins ($7,100) – Wiggins comes into Wednesday hot as a scorer with at least 20 points in his past six games and eight of his past nine. His price is on the rise, but it’s still low compared to his recent production, and he gets a nice matchup against Kyle Korver of the Hawks, who can’t match his length and athleticism in what should be a somewhat high-scoring game. Wiggins’ floor for cash-game use has been pretty solid lately, with just two of his last nine games coming in under 30 DK points.

Eric Gordon ($6,300) – This pick is contingent on Tyreke Evans‘ status. If Evans returns, Gordon will likely be unusable until his price drops to an appropriate level. If Evans stays on the sideline, Gordon will be a solid bet for a mid-30s fantasy performance against the Suns in a game with the highest over/under of the night. His usage rate will obviously go down when Evans make his eventual return in the near future, but he’s scoring 33.75 fantasy points in three of his past five with the other two coming against slow-paced teams against whom he took only 20 shots combined.

Avery Bradley ($5,900) – Bradley is another player who’s en fuego lately, and the Celtics face off with the lowly 76ers on Wednesday. Marcus Smart‘s injury has paved the way for Bradley’s return to the starting lineup, and Bradley dropped 25 points (38.25 DK points) in a start Tuesday. That performance gave Bradley five straight games with at least 28.5 fantasy points, and the offseason work he put in on his jump shot has paid off so far this season.

Cheap risk option: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($4,000) – Hollis-Jefferson isn’t much of a scorer yet, but his otherwise well-rounded stat lines have allowed him to post three outings of at least 30 DK points in his last five games. He gets a nice matchup with the Thunder, who run at the highest pace in the NBA compared to the Nets, who fall in the bottom 10. Hollis-Jefferson has tons of upside at his price Wednesday.

SMALL FORWARD

Rudy Gay ($7,000) – Gay has disappointed with DeMarcus Cousins out in the past, but he’s also had his share of big lines. That’s who Gay is as a player; inconsistent, no matter what. He’ll still likely be a popular play in cash games, and he’s the top choice among small forwards above $5,000. The Bucks may stick Giannis Antetokounmpo on him, and Greek Freak’s length could bother Gay, but Milwaukee hasn’t been a shutdown defense against SFs this season. A high-scoring game and increased usage rate could offset some inefficiencies.

Jeff Green ($4,800) – Green has at least 27.25 fantasy points in four of his past six games as a starter and is still underpriced despite jumping up from $3,200 over a week ago. The Rockets don’t defend small forwards well and Memphis will be playing up in pace Wednesday night. Green shot just 2-of-9 and scored only 22.5 DK points in the last matchup between the teams, but even that performance isn’t a complete disaster at his price. He should be better today.

Omri Casspi ($4,700) – This pick is contingent on Casspi joining the starting lineup with Cousins listed as doubtful. With Milwaukee employing Jabari Parker at power forward, I’m expecting Sacramento to start Gay at the 4, but George Karl has been erratic with his lineups this season. If Casspi starts, he’ll likely see at least 30 minutes, and he’s averaging just over 30 DK points when he’s seen that much time, which has been three times over his last ten games.

Matt Barnes ($3,400) – This is another pick contingent on a player starting, as Zach Randolph‘s status is currently unknown. Barnes has played 34.3 minutes per game in the three games Z-Bo has missed, averaging over 27 fantasy points per game through that stretch and no lower than 20.75 in a game. He’s the top value option on the slate if Randolph is out, which we’ll hopefully know shortly before 7 p.m., although Memphis is generally late to relay injury information.

Cheap risk option: Robert Covington ($4,800) – Covington is starting to heat up, scoring 35.5 and 32.5 fantasy points in his last two games and playing 67 minutes. His playing time is now longer limited coming off injury and he’s a player that can fill up the stat sheet, even coming off the bench. The Celtics haven’t defended small forwards well this season and Covington could definitely be in for another 30-point night.

POWER FORWARD

Anthony Davis ($10,800) – Anthony Davis has been a bit beat up lately, but he’s scored over 60 fantasy points per game in his two games since returning and had a 61.75-point performance before hurting his shoulder in his next game against the Nuggets. Davis faces the same Suns team he torched for 32 points, 19 rebounds and four blocks in New Orleans and it’s not difficult to envision a repeat. He’s the top superstar of the night.

Kristaps Porzingis ($7,000) – Porzingis has at least 46.75 fantasy points in three of his last five games, which is insane value at his ever-increasing price tag. His other two games saw him put up just 39.5 fantasy points combined, but those were against Serge Ibaka and Anthony Davis, two defenders with enough length to give Porzingis some trouble. The Magic have nobody with that kind of length and haven’t been great against power forwards this season.

Markieff Morris ($5,400) – Morris has finally woken up from his season-long slump, and his price is still depressed because of his early struggles. He’s averaging almost 40 fantasy points in his last two games and while he faces Anthony Davis again, he did put up 35.5 points in New Orleans three days ago. Take advantage of Morris’ price tag while it’s in the 5000s, because it won’t be for long if he continues to play like we know he can.

Cheap risk option: Nene Hilario ($3,600) – Cheap options with upside are few and far between at power forward Wednesday, despite the 12-game slate. Nene has scored at least 32.75 fantasy points in two of his past five games and gets a juicy matchup against the Hornets frontcourt. His worst game in his last five was 18.5 fantasy points, which still pays off his price tag.

CENTER

Karl-Anthony Towns ($7,400) – Towns was playing well heading into what looked to be an easy matchup against the 76ers, but foul trouble limited him to 19 minutes. He had posted at least 37 fantasy points in his three prior games, and I expect him to be back at that level of production in a good matchup against the Hawks. Al Horford isn’t a player Atlanta dumps the ball into for offense in the post like Jahlil Okafor in Philly, so foul trouble is less likely to be an issue.

Marc Gasol ($7,300) – Gasol has a nice matchup against Dwight Howard on Wednesday, something that wouldn’t have been said a few years ago. Howard has been more giving at the rim lately, though, and Gasol’s ability to step away from the paint could be Superman’s kryptonite. Gasol has been playing well without Zach Randolph of late, but he was trending up before Z-Bo got hurt anyway. A Randolph return won’t scare me off Gasol, especially since Z-Bo may find his minutes limited initially.

Greg Monroe ($7,200) – Monroe gets a nice matchup against a DeMarcus Cousins-less Kings team on Wednesday and has averaged over 40 fantasy points in his last two games. The Bucks are still trying to figure out the best way to implement him into their offense and while he’s had a few struggles with Michael Carter-Williams in the lineup, this matchup favors dumping the ball into Monroe over playing with it on the wings. Let’s hope Jason Kidd reinforces that notion.

Cheap risk option: Frank Kaminsky ($3,200) – Kaminsky has finally broken into the Hornets rotation, playing at least 19 minutes in five straight games. While he has just one double-figure scoring effort, he has been trending up and his price is likely slightly low for what he brings to the table. Like Nene, this isn’t as high-upside of a play as some other low-priced players today, but center is pretty concentrated near the top tonight as far as value.

Cash Game Ranks

This isn’t necessarily an order of who will score the most DraftKings points. Rather, the rankings are aimed to find the best price, value and production combo to help you win cash games, also taking into account potential ownership levels for each player.

PG
1) Mike Conley
2) Brandon Knight
3) Kemba Walker
4) Ish Smith (if Tyreke Evans sits)
5) Jarrett Jack
6) Deron Williams
7) Goran Dragic

SG
1) Avery Bradley
2) Andrew Wiggins
3) Eric Bledsoe
4) Eric Gordon
5) Khris Middleton
6) Kevin Martin
7) Rodney Hood

SF
1) Matt Barnes
2) Omri Casspi
3) Jeff Green
4) Rudy Gay
5) Thabo Sefolosha
6) Nicolas Batum
7) Giannis Antetokounmpo

PF
1) Anthony Davis
2) Kristaps Porzingis
3) Markieff Morris
4) LaMarcus Aldridge
5) Jabari Parker
6) Kevin Love
7) Thaddeus Young
8) Tristan Thompson
9) Luis Scola

C
1) Marc Gasol
2) Karl-Anthony Towns
3) Greg Monroe
4) Marcin Gortat
5) Brook Lopez
6) Al Jefferson
7) Bismack Biyombo

As always, stay locked to Twitter and follow me @christripodi, where I’ll do my best to break down the implications of any late scratches or lineup changes before the first game tips at 7 p.m. EST. I’ll also update this article as news breaks throughout the day if at all possible, but I will usually update via Twitter first.

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