Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: November 30, 2015
A second straight eight-game NBA slate really bears out the balance commissioner Adam Silver was looking for in the schedule this year. All in all, its a pretty decent night with a couple high-scoring games and a couple that aren’t quite as appealing. Let’s take a look at Monday top plays.
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Vegas lines and totals
Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat (-3.5) – total of 192.5
Houston Rockets @ Detroit Pistons (-4) – total of 198
San Antonio Spurs (-4) @ Chicago Bulls – total 190.5
Denver Nuggets @ Milwaukee Bucks (-4) – total of 200
Oklahoma City Thunder (-2) @ Atlanta Hawks – total of 211.5
Golden State Warriors (-8) at Utah Jazz – total of 201.5
Dallas Mavericks (-1.5) @ Sacramento Kings – total of 214
Portland Trail Blazers @ Los Angeles Clippers (-7.5) – total of 205.5
Mavericks-Kings and Thunder-Hawks should see some points scored in games projected to be close but as weird as it sounds, only the Kings play really bad defense of those four teams. Pace is certainly a factor and while most of the players from those two games will be playable, there aren’t as many elite plays as you might expect. Spurs-Bulls looks like a game to avoid from a fantasy perspective—with a few exceptions—and it’s tough to count on many Celtics with a team total of just 94.5.
Point = +1 PT
Made 3pt. shot = +0.5 PTs
Rebound = +1.25 PTs
Assist = +1.5 PTs
Steal = +2 PTs
Block = +2 PTs
Turnover = -0.5 PTs
Double-Double = +1.5PTs (MAX 1 PER PLAYER: Points, Rebounds, Assists, Blocks, Steals)
Triple-Double = +3PTs (MAX 1 PER PLAYER: Points, Rebounds, Assists, Blocks, Steals)
Now, for the top options and values at each position:
POINT GUARD
Russell Westbrook ($10,600) – Right after I finish saying Thunder-Hawks might lack elite plays, I list Westbrook at the point guard spot. Go figure. Jeff Teague isn’t exactly an above-average defender at the point and the Thunder are projected to light up the scoreboard. It’s the Westbrook and Kevin Durant show every night in Oklahoma City and with his price back to a reasonable level, Monday looks like more of a Westbrook night.
Deron Williams ($6,100) – It feels weird to consistently recommend Deron Williams in cash-game play, but I’m going to stick with it until it fails. Even feeling under the weather didn’t stop Williams from dropping 22 points on the Nuggets in a great matchup, and Rajon Rondo isn’t much better on the defensive end. Williams should eclipse 34 fantasy points for the sixth time in his last seven games, and then maybe his price will rise a bit.
Tony Parker ($5,400) – Derrick Rose‘s defense these days leaves much to be desired, and Parker has been playing well enough to take advantage. Averaging just over 30 fantasy points in his last five games, Parker should be able to hit that average despite the slow projected pace of play in this one. The Bulls’ defense isn’t what it was under former coach Tom Thibodeau.
Jerryd Bayless ($4,900) – Bayless will be a very popular play in cash games Monday and with good reason. The Bucks new starting point guard played a whopping 43 minutes Sunday in Charlotte, and while expecting a repeat is unwise, he’s still a great value with minutes in the low-to-mid-30s and get a matchup with the Nuggets, who gouge fantasy points to guards. Plug Bayless in and work the rest of your roster around him.
Cheap risk option: Raymond Felton ($3,200) – J.J. Barea will miss another game Monday and Devin Harris rarely plays over 20 minutes due to his durability issues, which leaves Felton as the lead guard off the Dallas bench. He’s averaging over 22 fantasy points per game in his last three outings in just under 30 minutes per game. He’ll likely see 25 minutes or so Monday night, giving him legitimate 25-point upside at a near-minimum price.
SHOOTING GUARD
Dwyane Wade ($6,700) – Monday is great day for value at shooting guard but if you want to pay up a little bit, Wade is a good option as well. While he’s hit just 14 of his past 44 shots from the field in three games against the Pistons and Knicks (twice), I expect him to get back into the 30-35-point range we’re used to seeing Wade in with a great matchup against the struggling Celtics’ wing defense. Avery Bradley is generally regarded as a good defender, but it hasn’t shown through in the stats yet this year.
Gerald Green ($4,000) – Like Bayless above, Green was recently inserted into the starting lineup and represents great value at his price. His run will only last as long as Luol Deng remains out, but the veteran forward is doubtful for Monday’s matchup and Green gets to face the same perimeter defense Wade does. He’s almost a must-play in cash games after two straight games of 25-plus fantasy points.
O.J. Mayo ($4,000) – Mayo joined the Bucks starting lineup alongside Bayless in the backcourt, as Jason Kidd decided to shake up the rotation with Michael Carter-Williams struggling and Jabari Parker limited. Mayo’s promotion may not be a long-term trend, but he had 29 fantasy points in 44 minutes against a tough Hornets defense in Sunday’s close loss. The minutes should come down, but he has a great matchup against Denver and a cheap price tag. Just beware that’s he never been Mr. Consistency.
Cheap risk option: Dion Waiters ($4,400) – In three games since Durant’s return sent him to the bench, Waiters has averaged nearly 26 fantasy points per outing, buoyed by a 12-point, six-assist, four-steal blowup against the Jazz, of all teams. In a decent matchup with the Hawks on Monday, Waiters seems likely to be the team’s third leading scorer in a game they’re projected to score 107 points in. He’s worth a GPP dart on the chance he can put up 30 DK points on the night.
SMALL FORWARD
Kawhi Leonard ($8,600) – Despite the low over/under, Leonard is my second San Antonio recommendation of the night, and he’s easily the top play at small forward. Averaging over 48 fantasy points in his past five games with a great matchup against the Bulls, Leonard is likely to keep rolling Monday night. It’s definitely possible Chicago sticks Jimmy Butler on Leonard and lets Tony Snell guard Danny Green, but Leonard doesn’t make his fantasy living on just scoring points and Butler carries too much of an offensive load to deal with Leonard on every possession.
Danilo Gallinari ($6,800) – Despite a middling game total, Nuggets-Bucks is looking like a fantasy game with a few good options on each side. Gallinari is one of those options, as Milwaukee is weak against small forwards and shifted Khris Middleton there Sunday instead of Giannis Antetokounmpo. Seeing less of the Greek Freak will only help Gallinari, and the Nuggets rely on him night in and night out to be their top scorer. The more I think about it, the more I think this game is going over 200 points.
Marcus Morris ($5,700) – Morris hasn’t been playing up to his price tag lately, but small forward is extremely shallow Monday and somebody needed to occupy this third spot. The Rockets give up tons of fantasy points to small forwards, so maybe Morris can bounce back from his recent struggles Monday, but he’s much better suited to GPP play. I’d only trust two small forwards in cash games tonight.
Cheap risk option: Stanley Johnson ($3,600) – Like most rookies, Johnson’s play this season has been up-and-down, as his downs are nearly useless while his ups are decent, but not extraordinary. As alluded to in the Morris blurb, small forward is a wasteland Monday and the Rockets don’t defend small forwards well. If Morris struggles and Johnson gets a few extra minutes, 20-25 fantasy points is a possibility, but be willing to take a single-digit score here as well if you roster Johnson
POWER FORWARD
Dirk Nowitzki ($6,400) – Nowitzki has been the king of consistency so far this season and has at least 32 fantasy points in five of his past six games. A matchup with Sacramento’s porous defense in the highest-scoring game of the night plays right into the hands of Dallas’ leading scorer, as does the fact that both Wes Matthews and Chandler Parsons still haven’t found their usual form. Dirk is carrying the Mavs this season, and that shouldn’t change Monday night.
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,600) – Cousins may not play due to his lingering back problems but if he does, this is where he would slot in at PF on Monday. He has a great matchup against Nowitzki, who can’t bang with Boogie in the post, and a 60-point fantasy outing would be far from shocking for Cousins. Unless you hear he’s going to play at least three hours before the 10 p.m. tip, though, it’s tough to fully trust he will play.
Chris Bosh ($7,300) – Celtics-Heat can’t be that bad of a game to choose from after all, or maybe the Heat just look like they should be favored by more than 3.5 points at home. Anyway, Bosh gets a good matchup against a Celtics team that doesn’t defends big that well and he has at least 29 fantasy points in four of his last five. While that number isn’t particularly impressive at his price, Bosh still should return his tag tonight. Nowitzki and Cousins are better plays, though.
Blake Griffin ($9,100) – Griffin is a bonus pick since I included Cousins, and with a 10:30 p.m. tip he’d actually be a potentially pivot if you give Boogie a chance in a GPP and he sits. Griffin’s matchup with the Blazers is pretty average on paper, but Portland has been starting Noah Vonleh at power forward and that doesn’t sound intimidating at all. Griffin has been the Clippers’ leader on offense this season with Chris Paul taking a backseat and is a solid play as usual Monday.
Cheap risk option: Ersan Ilyasova ($4,300) – Both cheap-risk forwards come from Detroit on Monday, which tells you all you need to know about Houston’s defense at SF and PF. Ilyasova’s fantasy upside has always been as tantalizing as his inconsistency is maddening, but there’s generally a chance for a blowup that results in 30 fantasy points for Ghostface Ilya if he’s shooting straight. Just be aware, like with Johnson, that single-digits are a possibility as well, just not quite as likely as the low teens with Ilyasova at least starting.
CENTER
DeAndre Jordan ($7,100) – Jordan gets a matchup he can dominate against Mason Plumlee and the Clippers have one of the highest team totals of the night. While that doesn’t mean much for Jordan, who’s never a primary option on offense, it implies a lot of shot attempts on both ends of the court, which leads to massive opportunity for rebounds and blocks. Portland allows the fifth-most rebounds and sixth-most blocks per game to centers and just the 10th-most points. This matchup fits Jordan’s strengths nicely.
Greg Monroe ($6,900) – Denver struggles just as much against centers as they do against guards which lines up perfectly for Monroe, especially with Michael Carter-Williams on the bench. Monroe excelled early in the season without MCW and picked up where he left off Sunday with a double-double and 38.5 fantasy points. You could argue him as the No. 1 play Monday at a stacked center position.
Clint Capela ($5,100) – Capela also has an argument as Monday’s top center play as long as he remains in the starting lineup. His matchup against Ilyasova—keep in mind Capela is playing power forward, not center—is far from intimidating and when Capela approaches 30 minutes of playing time, he’s usually good for 30-35 fantasy points. I’m expecting at least 30 points from Capela tonight, and using two centers isn’t the worst idea.
Cheap risk option: Steven Adams ($3,700) – The outlook is bleak for centers under $5,000 on Monday, so Adams gets the nod thanks to a good matchup against the Hawks. Atlanta is generally more vulnerable to high-scoring centers rather than hustle-stat centers thanks to Al Horford‘s skill set, but Adams just pulled down 13 rebounds in a matchup with Andre Drummond on his way to 27.75 fantasy points. There’s a chance he can grab double-digit boards again in a game that should feature a lot of shots, but the upside isn’t too high here.
Cash Game Ranks
This isn’t necessarily an order of who will score the most DraftKings points. Rather, the rankings are aimed to find the best price, value and production combo to help you win cash games, also taking into account potential ownership levels for each player.
PG
1) Jerryd Bayless
2) Deron Williams
3) Russell Westbrook
4) Tony Parker
5) Reggie Jackson
6) Chris Paul
SG
1) Gerald Green
2) O.J. Mayo
3) Dwyane Wade
4) Wesley Matthews
5) J.J. Redick
6) Kyle Korver
7) Khris Middleton
SF
1) Kawhi Leonard
2) Danilo Gallinari
3) Marcus Morris
4) Kevin Durant
5) Thabo Sefolosha
PF
1) Dirk Nowitzki
2) DeMarcus Cousins (if he plays)
3) Chris Bosh
4) Blake Griffin
5) Derrick Favors
6) Serge Ibaka
7) Draymond Green
C
1) Clint Capela
2) DeAndre Jordan
3) Greg Monroe
4) Hassan Whiteside
5) Zaza Pachulia
6) Kosta Koufos (if Cousins sits)
7) Andre Drummond
As always, stay locked to Twitter and follow me @christripodi, where I’ll do my best to break down the implications of any late scratches or lineup changes before the first game tips at 7:30 p.m. EST. I’ll also update this article as news breaks throughout the day if at all possible, but I will usually update via Twitter first.
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