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Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: October 28, 2015

The first night of regular-season NBA DFS is officially in the books, but the real fun starts Wednesday with a 14-game slate. Only the Golden State Warriors and Atlanta Hawks have the night off, which means nearly every NBA player is available for tonight’s action. Stephen Curry‘s huge night was the story Tuesday but unfortunately, the reigning NBA MVP won’t have an opportunity to repeat until Friday. Enough about last night, and on to the jam-packed Wednesday slate.

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Vegas lines and totals

Washington Wizards (-4) @ Orlando Magic – total of 204.5
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics (-11) – total of 198
Indiana Pacers @ Toronto Raptors (-5.5) – total of 198
Chicago Bulls (-5.5) @ Brooklyn Nets – total of 194
Charlotte Hornets @ Miami Heat (-6.5) – total of 193
Utah Jazz (-1.5) @ Detroit Pistons – total of 188.5
San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-4.5) – total of 208
New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks (-6) – total of 192
Denver Nuggets @ Houston Rockets (-10.5) – total of 212
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Memphis Grizzlies (-6) – total of 188
New Orleans Pelicans @ Portland Trail Blazers (-2.5) – total of 206.5
Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns (-4.5) – total of 203
Los Angeles Clippers (-5.5) @ Sacramento Kings – total of 210.5
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Lakers (-3.5) – total of 202.5

Two matchups stand out here, with the Nuggets traveling to Houston to face the Rockets and the Clippers heading to Sacramento for a late-night date with the Kings. These games have injury and suspension implications as well; as both Wilson Chandler and Jusuf Nurkic are out for Denver, Dwight Howard is suspended thanks to 2014-15 flagrant fouls and Rudy Gay may miss the opener after becoming a father for the second time.

As a result, there’s plenty of value available in these prime situations for fantasy scoring, which should allow you to pay up for a couple high-priced studs, even in cash games. Below is a quick reminder of the DraftKings scoring system.

Point = +1 PT
Made 3pt. shot = +0.5 PTs
Rebound = +1.25 PTs
Assist = +1.5 PTs
Steal = +2 PTs
Block = +2 PTs
Turnover = -0.5 PTs
Double-Double = +1.5PTs (MAX 1 PER PLAYER: Points, Rebounds, Assists, Blocks, Steals)
Triple-Double = +3PTs (MAX 1 PER PLAYER: Points, Rebounds, Assists, Blocks, Steals)

Now, for the top options and values at each position:

POINT GUARD

Damian Lillard ($8,900) – Stephen Curry took it to the Pelicans last night as Jrue Holiday sat the opener of a back-to-back set but even with Holiday playing Wednesday, he’ll be limited to 20 minutes for the foreseeable future. With LaMarcus Aldridge in San Antonio, the Blazers are now Lillard’s team and he gets a good matchup against a team coming off a big road loss the night before. Chris Paul ($9,400) is a good option as well among the top PG’s, but I’ll take the $500 savings and sky-high ceiling Lillard provides.

Mo Williams ($4,900) – Williams played 37 minutes as a starter Tuesday night and put up 39.5 fantasy points against the Bulls. I’m avoiding the Cavs and Grizzlies for the most part tonight, but Williams is a near-lock for 25 fantasy points even in a tough matchup, and it’s more likely he tops 30 DK points than falls below it, even if he sees closer to 30 minutes on the second night of a back-to-back. With Irving due back eventually, Cleveland can ride Williams hard to start the season.

C.J. McCollum ($4,800) – While Lillard will take over as Portland’s top offensive option, McCollum will be the next guy in line for touches. His preseason usage rate was 27.7 as the former Lehigh star averaged 18.3 points and 4.4 assists per game. Those two stats alone would pay off this price, and McCollum will be a very popular play Wednesday. His price could be in the $6,000 range before long.

Cheap risk option: Raymond Felton ($3,000) – Felton looks likely to start at shooting guard for the Mavericks tonight with Wesley Matthews moving to small forward, and seems likely to play around 25 minutes even with J.J. Barea and Devin Harris available off the bench, especially considering Deron Williams‘ minutes limit. It wouldn’t surprise me to see all four play 20-25 minutes since Matthews is also going to be limited. Barea is an option too at $3,400, but I’ll lean towards the starter and save the $400.

SHOOTING GUARD

James Harden ($10,100) – Harden is one of three players priced over $10,000 for Wednesday night, and he’s well worth the hefty tag. The Nuggets were brutal at defending shooting guards last season and return a similar cast of characters under new coach Mike Malone. This game will be high-scoring and Harden always sees higher usage when Dwight Howard sits, as he will be Wednesday. Harden will likely be the highest-owned star on this slate, with good reason.

Khris Middleton ($5,400) – Middleton was consistently about $1,000 higher than this price during last season’s breakout, and both Giannis Antetokounmpo (suspension) and Jabari Parker (knee) will sit this one out. That leaves Middleton, Michael Carter-Williams and Greg Monroe as the major fantasy options for the Bucks at home against the Knicks. This game has a low total, but Middleton’s usage could very well be through the roof in this one.

J.J. Redick ($5,000) – The Kings didn’t defend the shooting guard position well at all last season, and that doesn’t project to change if Ben McLemore keeps his starting job. Even if he doesn’t, I’m not sure James Anderson can contend with the well-run Clippers offense, which tends to get Redick open looks via off-ball screens and pinpoint passes from Chris Paul or Blake Griffin. Redick never has a ton of upside, but he’s generally good for 20-25 DK points a night, which is all you can ask from a shooting guard in this price range in cash games.

Cheap risk option: Will Barton ($3,000) and Lance Stephenson ($3,000) – With Wilson Chandler sitting this one out, Barton could be in line for extra minutes, but Malone’s rotation plans are mostly unknown. Barton is unlikely to enter the starting lineup and might be behind both Gary Harris and Randy Foye, but we don’t call these “risk options” without reason. Barton posted some monster lines in DFS last season, and the statistical upside is very tempting. Speaking of fantasy outside, Lance Stephenson will start for the Clippers. Problem is, he likes to have the ball in his hands, and that won’t happen much next to Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. Still, he could be worth a shot on the chance he sees 25 minutes, but there are never any guarantees with Born Ready.

SMALL FORWARD

Rudy Gay ($7,700) – This pick is obviously contingent on Gay playing Wednesday but if he does, he’ll be part of a high-scoring game at home against a team that struggled against small forwards last season. Whether Paul Pierce or Wesley Johnson starts for the Clippers is unlikely to matter much when it comes to Gay, who will always see minutes at power forward this season as well. He doesn’t do enough on the stat sheet besides score to be a high-upside option, but he’s a solid cash play.

Danilo Gallinari ($5,800) – Many are predicting a breakout season for Gallinari, with health presenting the only major obstacle to that prognosis. Wilson Chandler‘s absence is a good reason to be bullish on Gallo’s potential on opening night, as is a matchup with a fast-paced Rockets team. He’s my top option at the position in both cash games and GPPs.

Trevor Ariza ($5,800) – On the opposite side of the Nuggets-Rockets matchup is Ariza, and he’s appealing for many of same reasons Gallinari is. Ariza is the type of player that doesn’t even need to score 15 points to reach value thanks to his output in steals, threes and some boards, but only a horrendous shooting night will keep him well below that number in Dwight Howard‘s absence.

Cheap risk option: Justin Anderson ($3,300)Chandler Parsons is out for the opener and Wesley Matthews is on a minutes limit, leaving open the possibility of good minutes for Anderson. The shine wore off this Summer League star as the preseason went on, but that will do nothing more than lower his potential ownership percentage if you want to fire him up in a GPP. It’s also uncertain how many minutes Rick Carlisle will hand the rookie.

POWER FORWARD

Anthony Davis ($10,400) – Novice DFS players may fade Davis on Wednesday after his terrible game Tuesday, and because the DraftKings interface shows Portland as one of the top defensive teams against PFs. Meyers Leonard, however, is not LaMarcus Aldridge on either end of the court, and Davis will likely be out for blood. There could be a lot of points scored in this game and with no Tyreke Evans and a limited Jrue Holiday, this offense stills runs through The Brow.

Kenneth Faried ($6,600) – A popular breakout pick last season, Faried stumbled under Brian Shaw, as did many of his Nuggets teammates. Mike Malone has had nothing but good things to say about Faried and while Wilson Chandler will be a threat to some of his PF minutes, Faried won’t have to worry about Chandler against the Rockets. Houston struggled to stop power forwards last season and a 15/15 game is well within reach for Faried, especially with Jusuf Nurkic out as well to open up a few extra boards.

Terrence Jones ($6,200) – I promise I’m not just choosing Nuggets and Rockets on this slate, but the various scenarios surrounding the game make it ripe for fantasy points and excellent value. Like Faried, Jones is playing on a team missing its starting center, is athletic enough to play at the pace this game will demand and can fill up a stat sheet. Like most nights in NBA DFS, power forward is chock full of solid options.

Cheap risk option: Clint Capela ($3,000) – I thought I just promised that I wasn’t just taking this entire game? Sorry, but Capela is too tempting at minimum price. He was a fantasy-point-per-minute player in limited playing time last season, which gives us an easy math problem. If Capela plays 25 minutes, he’s likely to exceed 20 DK points and if he pushes for 30, well, he could pay off a point per $100, which is insane value. He’s nowhere near as much of a risk as the aforementioned cheap options.

CENTER

Tyson Chandler ($5,900) – The center position is a bit ugly at the top Wednesday, as DeMarcus Cousins and DeAndre Jordan face off against each other, as do Andre Drummond and Ruby Gobert and Nikola Vucevic and Marcin Gortat. While at least one or two of those six players will hit value Wednesday, I prefer to spend my money elsewhere. Chandler will have extra motivation going against a Mavericks team that prioritized Jordan over him in free agency, and will go up against Zaza Pachulia. Advantage, Chandler.

Zaza Pachulia ($5,200) – It’s a good thing for Pachulia that opponents’ fantasy points don’t count against his. It’s difficult to find a scenario besides foul trouble where Pachulia plays less than 25-30 minutes, and that should come with 25-30 fantasy points as well. Foul trouble seems unlikely against Chandler, who isn’t a featured offensive weapon, and both centers in this matchup could be in for nice fantasy games.

Roy Hibbert ($5,200) – Hibbert should see some nice run in L.A. after falling out of favor in Indiana, and his price is very reasonable considering his matchup with the Wolves. Karl-Anthony Towns, while unbelievably talented, is still a rookie making his NBA debut, and his presence is unlikely to turn Minnesota into a defensive stalwart overnight. Like Pachulia, Hibbert should see 25-30 minutes and pay his price tag.

Cheap risk option: Joffrey Lauvergne ($3,000) – If it isn’t obvious by now which game I’m targeting heavily, you haven’t been paying attention. Lauvergne is reportedly the favorite to start Wednesday next to Kenneth Faried and if he does earn the nod, could be a nice source of value. I probably wouldn’t play him over Capela, but he’s a better option than any of the other cheap plays I mentioned for Wednesday.

Cash Game Ranks

PG
1) Damian Lillard
2) Chris Paul
3) John Wall
4) Mo Williams
5) C.J. McCollum
6) Emmanuel Mudiay
7) Elfrid Payton
8) Ricky Rubio

SG
1) James Harden
2) Khris Middleton
3) J.J. Redick
4) Kobe Bryant
5) Avery Bradley

SF
1) Danilo Gallinari
2) Rudy Gay
3) Trevor Ariza
4) Joe Johnson
5) Kawhi Leonard
6) Paul Pierce

PF
1) Anthony Davis
2) Kenneth Faried
3) Terrence Jones
4) Greg Monroe
5) Clint Capela
6) Julius Randle
7) Blake Griffin
8) David Lee

C
1) Tyson Chandler
2) Joffrey Lauvergne
3) Zaza Pachulia
4) Roy Hibbert
5) Meyers Leonard

As always, stay locked to Twitter and RotoWorld for any late-breaking news the hour before games tip at 7 p.m. EST. With so many starting lineup and roles up in the air, as well as the usual injury (and baby) situations, late value has a tendency to pop up when it comes to NBA DFS. I’ll do my best to update this article as news breaks throughout the day.

 

For more fantasy hoops analysis and to have any of your questions answered, follow Chris on Twitter @christripodi.
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