Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: October 31, 2015
Welcome guys and ghouls to this Halloween edition of the daily fantasy hoops fix. First, let me allow yesterday’s column to rest in peace, because while I hit on some plays, I missed on a lot more by fading a game for blowout concerns that ended up going into 2OT, which of course happens over a season of this unpredictable game we play. Nothing you can do though but trust your analysis and lace them shoes up and go right back out on to the court the next night. So, let’s look into the 6-game NBA DFS slate ahead.
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Vegas lines and totals
Utah (-3) @ Indiana – 190
New York (+7) @ Washington – 204
Golden State (-4) @ New Orleans – 213.5
Brooklyn (+12) @ Memphis – 191.5
Phoenix (+3) @ Portland – 204.5
Sacramento (+13.5) @ LA Clippers – 214.5
So, we have four games projected to net over 200 points, two of which stand out, Warriors v Pelicans and Kings v Clippers both looking like huge scoring affairs. The tricky part though is that the Clippers are favored to blow the Kings out, so there’s so risk in loading up on that game too much. The other blowout concern is Nets/Grizzlies which seems to be the trend this year when the Nets take the floor, they’re really not very good and started off with a really tough schedule. Memphis is a team you rarely want to use players from the opposing team against, because they are so stingy defensively. So, when their opponent is already bad anyways, you just totally ignore the Nets tonight.
Phoenix/Portland is an interesting one because as I write this up, they are currently playing. So, both teams are matched up now and will soon both have to fly from Phoenix to Portland and then play again Saturday night. Little worrisome for that game, but I won’t be totally fading it on a smaller 6-game slate.
Here’s a quick review of the DraftKings scoring settings:
Point = +1 PT
Made 3pt. shot = +0.5 PTs
Rebound = +1.25 PTs
Assist = +1.5 PTs
Steal = +2 PTs
Block = +2 PTs
Turnover = -0.5 PTs
Double-Double = +1.5PTs (MAX 1 PER PLAYER: Points, Rebounds, Assists, Blocks, Steals)
Triple-Double = +3PTs (MAX 1 PER PLAYER: Points, Rebounds, Assists, Blocks, Steals)
POINT GUARD
Stephen Curry ($9,900) – I know the first thought is that this is a back-to-back game on the road, but surprisingly enough, Curry averaged more points last season on the second half of back-to-backs than he did for games after 1, 2 or even 3 days off. He also was better on the road last season than at home, so there’s that. He did average less assists on back-to-backs but an unreal 4.8 treys at 53.7%, wowzers. Curry also fresh in our minds, lit this same Pelicans team up for 63.5 DK points earlier this week. Don’t try to find reasons to fade the MVP tonight.
I like John Wall of the other $9K+ point guard options, if you do decide to go another route at the position.
C.J. McCollum ($6,600) – What a show CJ put on a couple nights back, and how quick people were to rag on him on Friday night as if they expected him to score 30 PPG on a regular basis. The bottom line is, McCollum is sporting a >30% usage rate through two games and while he may have been off Friday against this same Suns team, he got 22 shots. If a “bad” night is 22 shots – 16pts – 4rebs – 3asts – 2stls, then sign me up until his price reflects it. Good chance he is better from the field tonight, take this bargain and run.
Cheap risk option: Knicks coach Derek Fisher came out Friday and spoke of possible starting lineup changes and the most obvious translation is that it’s apparent rookie Jerian Grant ($3,600) should be playing over veteran Jose Calderon. On Thursday night, Grant scored five points, brought down seven boards and dished out seven assists in 28 minutes. Now, John Wall is a great defender so it won’t be easy for the rookie, but at $3,600, he could still easily hit value.
SHOOTING GUARD
Bradley Beal ($6,200) – YES! The kid has started the season as so many of us hoped that he would, taking that next step towards stardom and with swagger. Friday night Beal scored 26 points against the Bucks and after the game was quoted saying that his mentality was “Nobody can stop me.” Need I say more? Ok, also the Knicks have nobody that can guard him on top of his confidence. Beal has a usage rate of 31.2% through two games and he’s averaging 25 PPG. He’s the Beal deal.
Alec Burks ($4,800) – This is a nice value. Through two games, Burks is playing 26.6 minutes, averaging 16.5 points, getting to the foul line five times a night (making 4/5) and has a usage rate of 25.9%. This scorer supreme off the bench is fun to watch go to work and he should keep all that fantasy glory going tonight in Indy.
Cheap risk option: The Pacers are going to have to go with Jordan Hill at PF to start again tonight to matchup better against the twin towers of the Jazz, so my man C.J. Miles will play a little less, like on Thursday night. The guy that isn’t affected by this is Rodney Stuckey ($4,000) who is the safer bet to get 24 minutes and produce. Miles happened to hit 6/8 shots last game, not as likely tonight, so I am leaning to the 50 Cent look-a-like, Stuckey.
SMALL FORWARD
Carmelo Anthony ($8,700) – Poor Otto Porter is going to get his young clock cleaned by one of the great scorers in the league tonight, so let’s all try to get in on the points that Carmelo should provide for us tonight. Wings have done well against the Wiz thus far and put the Wiz on the second game of a back-to-back and Melo coming off a night off, gimme some Melo (Busta Rhymes voice). Not to mention Melo like some of the aforementioned players, sports a usage rate right around 30%. He’ll be the reason the Knicks stay in this game.
Gordon Hayward ($6,900) – Love Gordon tonight, I really do. He had an off night Friday, but comes into Indy where SFs have done some real damage thus far, and things shouldn’t get any better tonight. GHay has yet to have his first big game of the season, well, this will be the one. Look for Hayward to go off for around 35 DK points, closer to his last season average (34).
Cheap risk option: I’m not trying to go cheaper than the above at SF tonight, but if I had to, I would I suppose roll with my guy Rodney Hood ($3,900). He’s stating, getting good minutes, shot looks good and at least has 25 DK point upside any given night. It’s a more than fair price.
POWER FORWARD
Blake Griffin ($9,500) – Griffin is off to a big time start to the 2015-16 season, and tonight he takes on the team he destroyed in the opener again. I like Anthony Davis to have a much better showing against the Warriors tonight, but for cheaper, I am going to take Griffin and his almost sure thing 40+ DK points for cash games. The good times keep rolling for Blake tonight.
Derrick Favors ($7,200) – If I decide to fade the top dollar PFs tonight (doubtful), then I am going with Derrick Favors who has been incredibly aggressive offensively to start the season and faces a nice matchup tonight. Jordan Hill isn’t going to be able to stop Favors from doing what he wants around the paint, and you should expect to see Favors to score 20+ points for the third straight game to go along with nice boards and blocks.
Cheap risk option: Kyle O’Quinn ($3,700) is getting a good amount of playing time off the Knicks’ bench and has been grabbing cleaning the glass like a man possessed. He’s a must use right now at this cheap price, solid upside and makes you more flexible elsewhere.
CENTER
DeAndre Jordan ($7,700) – For cash games, you love safe production and Dre is the epitome of that. Handful of points, ton of boards, few blocks, rinse, repeat and here’s your 35ish DK points, see you next time.
Marcin Gortat ($6,000) – Gortat hasn’t been anything special through two games but tonight he faces a promising matchup with the Knicks who have been getting owned by centers thus far. Don’t expect 40 DK points or anything, because the Wiz run through their guards, but I think The Polish Hammer delivers 30 this evening at a good price.
Cheap risk option(s): Festus Ezeli ($3,100) will start again for the Warriors and doesn’t have a lot of upside but for the near minimum he will play around 24 minutes and grab boards and get blocks. Low 20s DK points is quite possible. Also, Willie Cauley-Stein ($3,000) is starting now and coming off a huge night against the pathetic Lakers. He’s not going to dominate again tonight, but for the minimum, he could land around 20 DK points if he avoids foul trouble with DeAndre around him.
CASH GAME RANKS
This isn’t necessarily an order of who will score the most DraftKings points. Rather, the rankings are aimed to find the best price, value and production combo to help you win cash games, also taking into account potential ownership levels for each player.
PG
1) C.J. McCollum
2) Stephen Curry
3) John Wall
4) Jerian Grant
5) Mike Conley
6) Brandon Knight
SG
1) Bradley Beal
2) Alec Burks
3) Rodney Stuckey
4) Eric Bledsoe
5) Sasha Vujacic
SF
1) Carmelo Anthony
2) Gordon Hayward
3) Al-Farouq Aminu
4) Rodney Hood
5) Tony Allen
PF
1) Kyle O’Quinn
2) Blake Griffin
3) Derrick Favors
4) Kristaps Porzingis
5) Anthony Davis
6) Kris Humphries
C
1) DeAndre Jordan
2) DeMarcus Cousins
3) Marcin Gortat
4) Festus Ezeli
5) Brook Lopez
6) Rudy Gobert
7) Willie Cauley-Stein
8) Myles Turner
As always, stay locked to Twitter and Rotoworld for any late-breaking news the hour before the first games tip at 7 p.m. EST. I’ll do my best to update this article as news breaks throughout the day.
For more fantasy hoops analysis and to have any questions answered, follow Zack on Twitter @BigZack44.
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