Fantasy Basketball 2013-14: Buy Low/Sell High
As a fantasy GM you have to be something like a stock broker at times, knowing when to buy and sell at the ideal times to make yourself the most profit. In fantasy sports, only so much is controllable. You can control your asking price but can’t control what the other GM is willing to pay.
Below are some players that I think are nice targets to try and buy now before their price rises and others I believe you should attempt to sell now before their trade value falls. Let me add that just because a player is on my sell high list does not mean you HAVE to sell them. Nobody on the sell list is a bad option by any means and if you don’t get the right return there is no problem holding on to them. Also, don’t go crazy shouting down the halls that you’re selling a player, keep it on the down low (emails). If owners see you desperately trying to sell a player it A) waves red flags and makes them curious why you’re so adamant on selling and B) tends to get you more low-ball offers because they know you’re wanting to sell pretty badly. On the flip side, where you’re trying to deal for a player off of my buy low list, it doesn’t mean buy them at all costs. If the player’s current owner is attached and wants too much, then just take a pass. You could overpay but that totally goes against what we’re trying to do here.
Buy Low:
Bradley Beal: This is a perfect chance to take a shot at a player like Bradley Beal. His numbers since returning from injury have been “down” compared to his pre-injury numbers and his owners may be a little concerned. They may also be overlooking the fact that Beal is still being eased back in and playing 10-15 minutes less than he was before his knee bruise sidelined him for nine games. There’s a reason they call him “The Real Beal,” and it’s because he’s a legit future All-Star in the league. It’s obvious to most already, and he’s only 20 years old. I would contact his owner in your league and throw out a feeler. Toss out one of my sell high players or a player you have that is doing well but not as well as Beal will be in the coming weeks when his minutes return to normal. I look for Beal to continue on his December averages of 20.9 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.6 assists, one steal and 2.8 treys. That’s stud status, and if you can get him at any kind of a discount, you are winning big time. If you’re in a keeper league, he’ll be tougher to pry away, but he’d also be worth a higher price in that instance. I truly believe Beal will finish in the top 40 of standard leagues this year.
Derrick Favors: It’s not that Favors has really been underperforming by any means, because he’s been pretty steady all year with the occasional stinker game mixed in here and there. I am just really high on Favors’ game and think he’ll find more consistency, stepping it up as the season goes on. Even if he stays at his current pace, he is a good option (13.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 1.4 blocks, while shooting 52%), and he’d be a help to any fantasy team. You have to love any player who helps you in that many categories, but especially in steals and blocks. He’s also been better (albeit he hasn’t been shooting as many) from the FT line, going from 64% in November to 80% in December. If he can keep it above 70%, that’s another substantial benefit of owning him. On the downside, Favors really hurts himself by getting into foul trouble more often than you’d like, but that’s all part of the growing pains of up-and-coming big men. My personal projections for Favors after the All-Star break are: 15.5 points, 10.2 rebounds, a steal and 2.0 blocks, while shooting 50% from the field and 72% from the charity stripe. I wouldn’t give up anything absurd for him, but he’d be worth a fair price. I’d start with a 2-for-1 trade involving a big man like J.J. Hickson, Glen Davis, Tristan Thompson, etc. plus a decent second piece. For comparison’s sake, I personally like Favors more than players such as Greg Monroe, Joakim Noah, and Marcin Gortat the rest of the way.
Eric Bledsoe: Some fantasy advisers have a strict “don’t deal for injured players” rule; I am not one of those guys. I am a “go big or go home” type and buying an injured player at a discount to cash in big later is right up my alley. Bledsoe has been fantastic thus far but he’s already missed eight games this season due to injury and is expected to miss at least another week currently. This is a nice time to price-check his owners and see if they’re worried or frustrated by his inability to stay in their lineup thus far. Bledsoe is a legit top-20 player and if you get him at a price cut and the downside is simply not having him for a couple of weeks, JACKPOT. This is the perfect scenario to try and buy a player low and if you don’t even attempt it, then you’re not trying to win. Bledsoe’s numbers have already been stellar, and I think he can improve even more on his assists, treys and blocks the rest of the way.
Russell Westbrook: Now this injury is quite different. Westy’s is a major injury and there’s a lot more risk involved because you never know if there could be setbacks in the recovery process or if he returns and quickly re-injures the knee. This is more of a target for teams who are towards the top of the standings (and it’d help if Westbrook’s owner was toward the bottom of the standings and not in as able to withstand Westy’s absence). If you’re sitting pretty and feel that you can wait another month or so and still be fine, I’d take a good shot at acquiring Westbrook. Assuming he stays healthy upon his return, you’ll have a top-10 player for the final two months of our fantasy season, plus the playoffs. If his owner in your league is willing to part with him for a guy like Oladipo, Trey Burke, Jeff Green or someone in that range, I’d do it in a heartbeat and reap the benefits after he returns sometime after the All-Star break in mid-February.
Sell High:
Thaddeus Young: Yeah, I know, not a name you expected to see on a sell list right now as Thad has been unreal this season, and especially over the last month. There is without question some risk here because continued great play isn’t at all out of the realm of possibility on a poor team like the 76ers. There are a lot of rumbles that the 76ers want to trade Thaddeus but you can only put so much faith in those rumors. (Consider that they were rumored to want to trade Andre Iguodala for a few years before they finally did.) I just feel like his numbers at this moment are at their max and anytime a player is at their max, all they have left to do is regress. Stepping up his treys was major for his value because that was the biggest knock on him fantasy-wise. I’m not saying he is a must-sell by any means, because no matter where he gets traded or if he stays and just tails off a bit, he’s still going to be a really good fantasy option. I am simply saying that he’s worth putting out there to see what you could maybe get back for him while he’s at his peak. Don’t sell an owner on his season numbers, although they’re good too; sell them on his last 15 averages: 25.0 points, 7.3 boards, 2.2 assists, 3.5(!!!) steals, 0.7 blocks, 1.5 treys, and great percentages as well. This dude is out of this galaxy right now, and if another owner thinks he’ll stay that hot, there’s your huckleberry. Use him to get yourself a nice boost in a category you need while not losing too much elsewhere. If you can acquire Kyle Lowry, David Lee or Gordon Hayward types, that’d be fantastic.
Victor Oladipo: After coming into the season with a lot of hype, Oladipo got off to a pretty good start for a rookie. He was scoring at a solid clip, grabbing a handful of boards, dishing a few dimes and had nice steals and even blocks for a guard. He was even shooting just a shade under 43% from the field including 33% from three land, then December came. In December, he was still doing fine in points, rebounds, assists and steals but his shooting took a shot to the gut. His FG% is down to 38% and falling and he’s a dismal 23% from deep. His minutes have also fluctuated a good bit more than they did in the earlier part of the season as he’s battled for playing time and also gotten in some foul trouble. The shooting decline started just before Tobias Harris re-joined the lineup so his return isn’t all that to blame, but he did fall another notch down the scoring options chart. Some owners will still be riding the Dipo hype train and continue hoping the Magic will trade Jameer Nelson, but even if they did, Dipo wouldn’t be the starting PG. I think now is a nice time to sell if you can get good value for him and upgrade your team for the stretch run. If you can use him to get a guy like Chandler Parsons, Bradley Beal, Gordon Hayward or similar, I would take that opportunity and run with it.
Jordan Crawford: This one is all about timing. Crawford is putting up some really quality stat lines and really dishing the ball well for nice assist totals… Assist totals that should take an extreme dip when one of the league’s best passers returns to the Celtics lineup in Rajon Rondo. JoCraw should still be a reliable scorer and possibly boost his threes from open looks created by Rondo, but his minutes won’t be as trustworthy in my opinion. The Celtics will have to split minutes between Rondo, Crawford, Avery Bradley and recently acquired scoring guard Jerryd Bayless. I’m not saying Crawford can’t still be an all format rosterable player after Rondo returns, but his value will never be higher than it is right now. I’d hurry and shop him out there before even more rumbles of Rondo’s return come and owners in your league get to where they tell you they want to “wait and see first” which is never ideal.
Darren Collison & Reggie Jackson: Both of these guys had their fantasy values shoot up recently due to the player ahead of them on the depth chart falling to injury. Reggie Jackson was already putting up good enough numbers to be owned in most leagues, while Collison was really only a deeper league candidate for scoring. If you can get an owner to buy one of these two above their pre-situational change cost then you take it quickly. If you’re in a position that you need the “now” stats to climb the standings then sure, milk them as long as you can, but in the next month or two they’ll both be back to their bench roles providing much less for you. I love offering these types of players to the owners of Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook (in this situation) to try and get them to overpay for their handcuff. A lot of times they’ll pay to fill that void and know they have that insurance if needed from then on. If you don’t get any bites right away, give it a week for owners to see what they are capable of. Both players will be putting up really nice stats for the time being and owners will come around to it. Then, pair one of them with another mid-tier player and try for a top 30-40ish player and see if you land a nice long term upgrade.
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