High Risk, High Reward: Ten Potential NHL Fantasy Hockey Studs
I spent last month bashing the overkill given to Crosby and Ovechkin. Now, as fantasy drafts get underway, it is time to revere them. But rather than talk about what we already know, that these two top God’s fantasy wish list, I prefer to discuss something more fun. This is my top ten list of guys that could be a bust, but could help your team reap the rewards, if they can overcome the risk.
I figured I’d start with an attention-grabber, since you’re probably saying I’m crazy for including him on this list. After all, we’re talking about the greatest goalie in hockey history, who also happens to be listed no lower than 15th in most fantasy ranking lists. So here it goes.
First of all, he’ll be 39 years old before the end of the season. Even the Great One Wayne Gretzky, Brett Favre, Lance Armstrong, and Michael Jordan had to take off the cape eventually. And for a goalie, who plays the entire game, hitting the ice and jumping back up while toting 50 pounds of equipment, that 39 looms even larger.
Take into account that he has played at least 77 (out of 82) games, in three out of the past four seasons (which are numbers not typically seen in goalies in their 20’s, let alone late 30’s,) and I predict that this will be the year that all that work catches up with him, and he finally becomes human. This could either mean another serious injury, or allowing more and more soft goals that have not been associated with him until recent years. I should add that he earned at least 44 wins in each of those years. But again, I believe this season will show us a serious decline in his play.
The Devils also lost Paul Martin, unarguably their best defenseman, which will dramatically increase the amount of shots that make it through to him. However, with Johan Hedberg backing him up, expect Martin to start another 70-plus games this season. And since he is in fact Martin Brodeur, combined with the New Jersey Devils track record of putting an above average team in front of him, and Ilya Kovalchuk and Zach Parise lighting it up, expect those 70-75 starts to reap some fantasy rewards.
While having never completely lived up to his potential, nobody doubts Connolly has the ability to be a good play-maker. What is doubted, however, is his ability to stay healthy.
A rookie in 1999-2000, he played in at least 80 games in each of his first four seasons, notching 40-plus assists in two of them. But ever since the lockout, he has been hampered by injuries, including several concussions, which have been notorious for ending professional careers in all sports. He played in only 48 games in back-to-back seasons, and 2006-2007 was completely lost. He did manage to play in 73 games last season in which he had 48 assists and 65 points, but he finished the regular season and playoffs hampered by an injury that considerably hindered his play, and was a big factor in the Northeast Division-winning Sabres’ disappointing first round playoff exit. The good news is, over the past five seasons, he is averaging just under a point per game. So if he does stay healthy, you do the math.
Gaborik’s skills with the puck and ability to find the back of the net are incredible. We in Blueshirt Nation certainly enjoyed watching him score 42 goals with 44 assists last season and know that a goal is possible every time he steps on the ice.
The risk factor here is how many times will he actually step on the ice. Last season, we held our breath every time he got hit, because he has a habit of playing 50-65 percent of the games each season. While production wasn’t a problem, he played in 65 games in consecutive seasons, 48 games in 2006-07, and only 17 games in 2008-2009 before Minnesota decided to cut ties.
The Rangers signing of Frolov as a free-agent this summer was met with mixed emotions. His talent is unquestionable, as in seven NHL seasons he hit 30 goals twice, and 20 goals in three others.
Los Angeles opted not to resign him after a 19 goal, 51-point underachievement. Ranger fans and media are hoping he does not become this year’s Nikolai Zherdev. The comparison comes from both players being cut from the same cloth of Russian players with all skill but questionable work ethic. They can be hard to coach and even harder to mold into a team’s system. Apparently in the Russian alphabet, there is in fact an “I” in team (just see their disappointing 6th place finish at the 2010 Winter Olympics.)
I believe Frolov is worth the risk. He signed a one-year contract for far less than he was hoping for. He knows that this may be his last shot to impress and show that he can be one of the league’s elite players and earn the money that goes with it. So basically, this season is an audition for next year’s contract. Add the fact that he is expected to be linemates with Marian Gaborik, and he could very well be on the finishing end of 30-40 of assists plus an equal amount of goals.
Who better to be this year’s Nikolai Zherdev than Zherdev himself. As I mentioned above, the Rangers signed him as a free agent for the 2008-2009 season. His 23 goals and 58 points were considered an underachievement for his talent. Then Ranger coach Tom Renney had problems motivating him, and he was often visibly sluggish on the ice.
The Flyers, fresh off a Cinderella Stanley Cup Finals run, picked him up this year, and he may be a perfect fit for Peter Laviolette’s system. Look for Zherdev to be a top-six forward with playmakers like Jeff Carter and Danny Briere, protectors like Dan Carcillo and Scott Hartnell, and the motivation from the Philadelphia crowd.
Coming up on 38 years old, the Senators’ journeyman has not notched less than 70 points in a season since 2000, and should join the NHL’s top-70 all-time point scorers by the New Year. (He enters the season with 992 points, and Dale Hunter holds the #70 spot with 1,020).
His numbers have steadily declined over the past three years, from 89 down to 71 in 2010. While seventy-one points is not exactly a bad season, with age comes the natural decline and the future hall-of-famer is no exception. I would not be surprised to see his numbers dip into the low 60’s this season as age sets in again. Of course this is far from a low enough total to make him undraftable, but I wouldn’t expect him to be a top-three fantasy forward this year.
He may fit better in the “sleeper” category, unless you consider any of your draft picks or roster spots a risk.
Next to Devils’ fans and Ilya Kovalchuk’s accountant, Zajac may be the happiest person on the planet at the massive Kovalchuk deal. He will now play center on the Devils’ first line with Kovalchuk on one wing and Zach Parise on the other. That could mean about 30 goals and 120 assists for him.
While I don’t seriously expect him to notch vintage 1980’s Gretzky numbers, any pass that connects with either winger, or any puck sent toward the net is a potential assist with these two electrifying finishers making anything and everything happen.
Zajac has played in no less than 80 games is each of his first four seasons, and has seen his points total steadily increase over the past three–culminating with a career-high 67, with 42 assists last season. With two 40-goal wingers to pass to now for an entire season, I would take him in the third or fourth round and expect him to have 50-60 assists.
Alex may be the poster-boy for this list. He missed 32 games in 2008-2009 due to a torn ACL in his knee, but did manage to score 41 points, just 17 points shy of his previous season’s total in which he played in 78 games.
He has had three seasons of 70-plus points, and a career-high 81 in 2006-2007. Since then he has been an enigma. He has failed to eclipse the 60 point mark in each of his past three seasons even though he was healthy for two of them, and scored a career low 37 last year, playing in all but two games.
The Flames are coming off a season in which they just narrowly missed the playoffs in the always brutally competitive Western Conference. Look for Alex to rebound this season and return to form with a performance almost double that of last season.
It is impressive to score 63 points in your rookie season. It is not impressive that five seasons later, 63 points remains his career high. He followed up the rookie performance with seasons of 55 and 58 points, but was a minus 5 and minus 25 respectively, in those two seasons. A minus 25 just about wipes out any fantasy help you would get from those 58 points. He scored in the low 30’s in two of his last three seasons, coming off a 33-point performance in which he scored just 18 goals on 191 shots.
While we know he has the potential to put up numbers, but will he? Look for Ryder to rebound on a good Bruins team that is undoubtedly out for blood after blowing a 3-0 series lead to the Flyers, becoming only the fourth professional sports team to blow a 3-0 lead in games in a best of seven series (1942 Red Wings, 1975 Penguins, and 2004 Yankees.) Not to mention, nobody likes losing to Philadelphia in anything.
The greatest American born player in hockey history has seen his numbers steadily decline over the past three seasons, down to a modest 30 points in only 59 games in 2010, his lowest points total since 1995.
So we’ll put this one on the All-Martin Brodeur team. Meaning, he’s 39; a first-ballot hall-of-famer; his jersey is going to the rafters by his long time team; and yet still seeks more glory and another engraving on the Stanley Cup. The only difference, is that Modano had to part ways with Dallas and find a new team, while Brodeur will play with New Jersey until they fit a Rascal Scooter with blades. Luckily for him, the team that took him in just happens to be the Detroit Red Wings.
While he will most likely be relocated to a third or gasp or even the fourth line, he will play against an equal line, and being on the Wings (also known as the New York Yankees, Duke Blue Devils, or Chinese men’s gymnastics team of hockey) clearly means that he will be on a great team.
Defensemen Brian Rafalski and Nicklas Lidstrom will give him opportunities, which he can still surely cash in on. I see him improving on last season’s 30 points, which would have been ninth on the Wings in scoring last year.
Happy hunting,
Mr. Ice Guy, Scott Blander
Who are some high risk/high reward players you will be drafting this year?
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