2011 Fantasy Baseball Closer Report Week 10: Buy Low Candidates & Weekly News
Quick News
Brandon Lyon will be returning from the DL and unfortunately for owners of Mark Melancon, manager Brad Mills says Lyon will be eased back into the closer role. Melancon’s good ERA and WHIP make him a nice player in roto leagues with start limits, regardless of closer status. On the other hand, Lyon is almost untradeable, and with the money they’re paying him, maybe they dangle Melancon to a team with a struggling bullpen (read: Yankees) to see if they can get a piece back. Melancon is the better pitcher the rest of the year and will outdo Lyon in ERA and WHIP easily.
Last week Aaron Crow was named the closer, and now Joakim Soria is back in the closer role; so much for that change. Crow didn’t even get a save opportunity in his time as the “closer” for the Royals, which surprised me greatly. I still don’t like Soria the rest of the year with the combination of high ERA, WHIP and the lack of save opportunities in general for the Royals. Crow, like Melancon, is another great ERA and WHIP guy that still has value even if he’s not getting save chances. In deep leagues, he’s worth a pickup if he’s available.
The Oakland bullpen is an interesting case and its worth taking a look at now that there are rumors of one or more relievers moving out. If a trade does occur, it changes the makeup of the new team’s bullpen and gives fantasy owners a chance to pounce on value. Andrew Bailey is the sure-thing closer there and won’t likely lose his job unless another injury occurs. Grant Balfour and Brad Ziegler are both right-handed setup guys that could be targeted by contenders in trades, especially if a team’s closer were to go down. Brian Fuentes has shown he can continue to close games despite a high ERA and WHIP and may also be targeted to close or setup for a contender. With manager Bob Geren being fired as of Thursday, their roles could change and any of the last three could be traded for and called upon to close, so keep an eye on the situation if you’re in need of saves in deeper leagues.
Buy Low Candidates
It may be blasphemy to claim the #2 closer in my rankings as a buy-low option, but I believe in the right conditions, Mariano Rivera can be gotten on the cheap. Between the news that setup guy Joba Chamberlain may need Tommy John surgery, and the fact they have pitched him in non-save situations, his owners may be a little worried about the future. Since last week’s rankings, he has gone out and converted 3 of 3 opportunities, so his owners may be okay for now. My advice is to wait for a bad outing and send out a trade offer for him, pitching his lack of reliable setup guys. He’ll be just fine this year barring any injuries, and should still put up good numbers though.
Leo Nunez might be the most overlooked closer around, the guy you just plug in to your lineup, set it and forget it. His ESPN Player Rater number for the year has been better than Carlos Marmol, Jonathan Papelbon, and Neftali Feliz, all top guys at the start. However, his numbers have gone down lately due to a couple of blown saves in his last 5 appearances. The fact is he’s not losing his job because of his performance and he’s a good strikeout and WHIP guy. If his owner is at all worried, this is the best time to pounce.
Finally, Francisco Rodriguez has allowed 8 earned runs in his last 7.2 innings pitched but has made up for it in fantasy with 9 strikeouts. His Player Rater number for the last 15 days is actually in the negative due to those numbers, but he’s still picked up 3 saves in that time. My only worry about him is his high WHIP (currently 1.48). If you can take a hit in WHIP, he’s a guy that will get you strikeouts and saves with a pretty good ERA.
Written by Jim Dingeman (@gentleman_jim) exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com
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(April 29, 2011 – Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images North America)
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