Fantasy Football

2011 Fantasy Baseball Early Season Review: Perception Versus Reality

Picture

Pressed up against the third base railing at Turner field during the summer of 1999, batting practice was a spectacle when Chipper Jones took his cuts, sending countless balls over the right field wall, ricocheting off the back rows of empty seats. Even though I was only 11 years old at the time, it was evident to me that Jones was an anomaly, a star among baseball’s best that summer, the same summer that the Atlanta third baseman would claim the National League’s MVP award. 

12 summers have passed since that memory of Jones blasting balls into the balmy southern twilight, and now, at 39, the sweet swinging switch-hitter still strikes fear into the hearts of baseball’s pitchers. A decade removed from his most productive seasons Chipper’s reputation is built on past achievement which begs the question: What players are playing below (or above) their perceived talent level?

Baseball is notorious for transforming aging stars into deities long past their most dominant seasons. In 2011, Chipper Jones headlines a list of players who remain compartmentalized among the league’s best while their talent and production levels indicate otherwise.

Chipper Jones, 3B, ATL
Perception: David Wright
Reality: Kevin Youkilis/ Neil Walker

An opening featuring Jones wouldn’t be complete without profiling the great Atlanta switch-hitter. With 439 home runs, Chipper is the National League’s all-time big fly leader and his reputation around the league is one of reverence rather than one based on actual present day production. During the 2001 and 2002 seasons Jones was issued a total of 43 intentional walks in contrast to 2010 and 2011 where Jones totaled a meager nine.

From 1998 to 2008 Jones was a near guarantee to get on base at the highest rate represented in his +.400 OBP in all but one of those seasons. Since then Chipper hasn’t come close to that same rate although he still remains one of Atlanta’s most patient hitters (2nd to only Jason Heyward with 13 BB in 2011).

In his first major league season playing without longtime Manager Bobby Cox, Jones still has talent in the skill areas most crucial to Atlanta’s success. Since May Jones has reverted to his late 90’s form by collecting seven hits in his last 21 at bats as well as posting an .870 OBP.

As long as the Cooperstown bound third basemen stays healthy it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Jones utilize what he has left to make one last playoff push.

Ivan Rodriguez , C, WASH
Perception: Yadier Molina STL 
Reality: Francisco Cervelli NYY

At the age of 19 Rodriguez took the league by storm as baseball’s best defensive catcher and soon “Pudge” would develop an offensive game to compliment his gold glove defense.

20 years later Rodriguez is anchoring a young National’s defense as the team waits for young catching prospects like Wilson Ramos and Derek Norris to develop. Rodriguez will turn 40 this fall and his defensive reputation has kept him employed considering his offensive production is far below what his team needs to remain competitive.

Long gone are the days where Rodriguez was a threat to steal double-digit base totals while knocking in runners at an elite level rate. The 2011 version of Pudge has collected a sparse eight hits in April in addition to slugging .325 (a career .465 slugging percentage). Ivan has been vocal with his desire to eclipse the venerated 3,000 hit plateau (2,825 total), the only question that remains is which team will have the patience to give this 40-year old backstop the playing time to reach that threshold?

Jimmy Rollins, SS, PHI
Perception: Brian Roberts BAL/ Brandon Phillips CIN
Reality: Alexei Ramirez, CHW

The former NL MVP is still considered among baseball’s premier middle infielders because as Rollins continues to decline his team continues to improve and thus hiding his eroding skill set. Rollins hasn’t hit above .250 for a full season since the Phillies’ World Series run in 2008. Additionally, in the past three seasons combined, Rollins has stolen only 53 bases, just ahead of his 2008 single season total of 48.

From April 25th to May 6th Rollins boosted his average from a pedestrian .256 to a stable .285 which has helped the Phillies to a 7-3 record during that stretch. Philadelphia’s star shortstop has deflected criticism because his defense continues to reassure cynics that he’s the man for the job albeit Rollins’ best days may be years in the past, but a hot steak of late has been a encouraging sign moving forward.

Derek Jeter, SS, NYY
Perception: Stephen Drew, ARI
Reality: Cliff Pennington, OAK

Jeter’s days batting second for the AL East leader may be numbered considering his lowly two extra base hits in all of April (although he hit 2 home runs the other day). Batting a collective .256 up until his 4 hit day Sunday (bumped up to .276) won’t help the Captain’s claim atop the batting order, although Jeter did finish the season’s opening month collecting eight hits in his final six games.

A possible bump to the bottom of the lineup may be in order should speedster Brett Gardner breakthrough his April woes, but in the meantime Jeter will need to deliver for the Yankees to hold onto first place. Apoplectic Yankee fans can only hope that warming weather will heat their captain’s bat entering week 6 of the season.

Jose Bautista, 3B, TOR
Perception: Adam Dunn CHW/ Casey Blake LAD
Reality: Adrian Beltre TEX/ Prince Fielder MIL

Bautista has added the hitting for average component to his power stroke and has resulted in his ascension as one of the game’s top third basemen. In addition to his improved all-around offensive output, Bautista has played the outfield for Toronto and thus given the Blue Jays the flexibility to add Edwin Encarnacion into the everyday lineup.

A .366 average may be a bit much to expect from a career .248 hitter but Bautista’s hot start will certainly go a long way towards uprooting the perception that he’s a single tool power hitter.

Jered Weaver , SP, LAA
Perception: Max Scherzer, DET/ Chad Billingsley LAD
Reality: Roy Halladay PHI

There was once a time where Jered Weaver was overshadowed by his brother Jeff, but now at the age of 28 Jered has entered his prime and his 2011 numbers are a testament to his development. A former first round pick in 2004, Weaver has improved in nearly every season since being called up in 2006 before finally culminating in a dominant 233 strikeout season in 2010 and now a 1.87 ERA through 57.2 innings in 2011.

As a young pitcher Weaver struggled to miss bats which resulted in plenty of opportunities for oppositions but today Weaver has harnessed his repertoire (6.4 K/9 in 2007 versus a 9.7 K/9 in 2011). The Angels’ fate will hinge on their ace’s ability to demonstrate his dominance in the AL West in order for Los Angeles to overtake Texas for the division crown.

Joakim Soria RP, KC
Perception: Leo Nunez
Reality: Mariano Rivera

Aside from a slow April start (4.63 ERA through 11 appearances), Soria is one of the best at his craft, shredding opponent’s ninth inning batting averages (.199 career BAA) and securing the occasional Kansas City win. At only 25, Soria will continue to develop into a back-end stopper for the Royals and once the team’s young infusion of prospects reach the big league level Soria will finally get the attention, and the wins that he deserves.

Comparing Soria to Rivera seems near sacrosanct considering Rivera is the gold standard to which we measure relievers, but the truth is that Soria has done nothing but produce since he was inserted into the closer role for Kansas City in 2007. During his first four seasons as closer Soria blew just 14 total saves while Rivera yielded 23.

Should winning baseball become de rigueur in Kansas City, Soria will surely rack up Rivera-esc save totals in coming seasons making the young righty a household name by year’s end.

Written by Conor Gereg exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com

Follow The Fantasy Fix on Twitter @thefantasyfix

or for Free Fantasy Sports Advice use our Quick Fix to get help with your team!


The Fantasy Fix is sponsoring a free one-day fantasy baseball matchup on DraftStreet this Friday for $150 cash, with the top 4 places getting paid.  Click here to sign up!


Picture

Tags: The Fantasy Fix, 2011 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Advice, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Conor Gereg
Previous post

The Fantasy Baseball Daily Fix: Zack Greinke Gets First Win of Season & Other News

Next post

2011 Fantasy Baseball Early Season Review: Perception Versus Reality