They were downright awful in 2010 until Buck Showalter took over, at which point they played some of the best baseball in the league down the stretch (57-34, nearly a .600 clip).  

Led by Brian Matusz, who fulfilled his promise by going 7-1 with a 2.17 ERA after August 1, the O’s staff was actually decent once Buck took the reins.  

Relying on them for 2011, however, is a more risky proposition. 

Their Opening Day starter will probably be Jeremy Guthrie, who is the definition of inconsistent.  Three months with an ERA under 4.00, three months with an ERA above (one of us which was June, where he went 0-4 with a 5.29 ERA), and a K/IP of 0.56 (meaning he strikes out a batter every other inning, on average).  In mixed leagues, Guthrie shouldn’t be owned; in AL-only, he’s a decent 3rd or 4th starter.

Their no. 2 will be Matusz, who could definitely come into his own this year.  A top five overall pick in 2008, Matusz has an above-average repertoire of pitches, and showed a lot of promise in 2010.  If he can capitalize on his August/September, he could be very good.  A decent no. 2 in AL-only, a watch-list or late round value pick in Mixed leagues.

After that, it’s a whole lot of up-in-the-air.  Starters three thru five could be some combination of Justin Duchscherer, Brad Bergesen, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, Ryan VandenHurk, and Zach Britton.  I’ll cover each of them here, in order of interesting-ness (it’s a word now).

Duchscherer has the most talent, and the most major league success of the group.  Unfortunately, he also has the most injuries – hip, back, arm, shoulder over the past few years.  He is lights-out when he pitches, but unfortunately he just doesn’t pitch enough.  

Justin was a full-time reliever from 2004-2006, and a pretty darn good one at that, and then the injury bug struck.  He threw only 16 innings in 2007, made the CJ Wilson-esque reliever-to-starter change in 2008 but made only 22 starts, missed all of 2009, and then threw only 28 innings in 2010.  BUT – his lifetime ERA is 3.18, his ERA as a starter is even better, at 2.59 – and his BAA is .235.  

No matter how good Duchscherer’s numbers are, I can’t recommend him in mixed leagues, and would not pay more than a dollar or two in an AL-only league, because he just. Cant. Stay. On. The. Field. 

Two years ago, Chris Tillman was the O’s top pitching prospect, and was held for months in virtually every AL-only keeper league.  But after back-to-back 2-5 seasons with ERAs well north of 5.00, the bloom is off the rose.  But a BAA of .255 in 2010 to go with a spot in the rotation from Day One perks up this owner’s ears…he’s got a good arsenal of pitches, tons of potential, and he’s won’t even turn 23 until mid-April.  He's a good guy to have on your radar.

Zach Britton will open the year in AAA, but after last year’s Futures Game, he opened up a lot of eyes.  He is a Kevin Brown-type, with a very hard fastball-sinker combo, and the potential for lots of groundballs and swinging strikeouts (124 in 153 minor league innings in 2010).  Given the rest of the O‘s rotation, he’s a great watch-list guy, and potentially worth a $1 bet at an AL-only auction.

I expect Brad Bergesen circa 2011 to look exactly like Brad Bergesen circa 2010 and not circa 2009.  He is a mediocre starter, an innings eater, and someone who the Orioles have penciled is as their no. 3 starter because they have no one better.  The reason I don’t see much improvement from Bergesen is that every single stat of his went down from 2009 to 2010 – record, K/IP, ERA, BAA, WHIP – yet he started nine more games.  Plus, he pitches in the hardest division in baseball.  I am not confident.

Ryan VandenHurk will almost definitely not be a starter this year, but he is very tall and throws hard, and the Orioles may be desperate enough to try to stretch him out to start.  Think Kyle Farnsworth with less control. Yes, I said less control.

Written by Jesse Mendelson exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com.  Be sure to check back every Wednesday for Jesse’s waiver wire column (and considering he used the waiver wire to sweep all three of his leagues last year, you might want to pay attention).  Find and follow Jesse on Facebook.