2011 Fantasy Baseball Pitching Preview: Mat Latos & The San Diego Padres
The most interesting name may be the newly acquired
Aaron Harang. While it is unlikely that Petco is going to bring back the 2005-2007 version of Harang (ERA in the high threes, 7-8 K/9, sub-1.30 WHIP), it could bring back the 2008-2009 version (ERA in the mid fours, 7.50ish K/9, 1.40 WHIP).At the very least, hopefully Petco will bring better than the 2010 version of Harang (5.32 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 6.61 K/9). It would seem reasonable that the ballpark will bring his ERA back on the right side of five, but the K/9 and WHIP are something not aided by ballpark, and their improvement is solely up to Harang. It might be worth a flier in an NL-only league to see if Harang has anything left.
Wade LeBlanc is kind of an uninspiring name despite being a former second round pick because he has never really had that “top prospect” status. Even his numbers from his first season in the big leagues are fairly uninspiring: 8 wins (25 starts), 4.25 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 6.78 K/9.
However, LeBlanc may have simply worn down in late August. If you take out his final three starts (plus one late relief appearance) and look at the first 22 starts LeBlanc made, you get a 3.46 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and a 7.40 K/9.
Assuming LeBlanc can develop in his second year and improve on his strikeout and walk rates, he could be a solid spot starter in mixed leagues (only when pitching at home, of course) and a reliable guy in NL-only leagues.
Clayton Richard is a more exciting name simply because he was a piece the Padres got back in exchange for sending Jake Peavy to Chicago. However, LeBlanc is probably the better of the two, young pitchers.
Richard was never a big strikeout guy in the minors, so it does not seem likely that he will improve much on the 6.62 K/9 he has put up in over 400 innings of major league work. He is also a WHIP liability as he has posted a 1.47 and 1.41 in the last two seasons. Given, he improved in that category last year, but at best Richard will in the 1.35-1.40 range in 2011.
With those numbers, Richard is not usable in mixed leagues and only a mediocre play in NL-only leagues.
The only legitimate mixed league-worthy play in San Diego’s rotation is
Mat Latos.The dude posted absolute sick, stud-like numbers in his first full year in the bigs last season: 14 wins, 2.92 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.21 K/9. Consequently, Latos may be drafted as a top 20, 15, or even top ten pitcher this year.
Personally, I think Latos is more Jonathan Sanchez than he is Clayton Kershaw and not a top 20 pitcher. I already covered the reasons I am anti-Latos this off season, so read
this for a more detailed explanation of my opinion.The final spot in the San Diego rotation will probably see both Cory Luebke and Tim Stauffer spending some time in that role, but in the sake of brevity, let us just say that neither guy is playable in any format.
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who is refreshing ESPN’s fantasy baseball page approximately 14,727 times a day waiting for the mock draft lobby to appear. You can follow him on Twitter @therealTAL.
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