2011 Fantasy Baseball Pitching Preview: Matt Garza & The Chicago Cubs
Sure, it’s been a little while since the Cubbies have won an NL Pennant, but I’m telling you, this is the year! The pieces are starting to come together, and it’s all happening with the pitching rotation.
It will be pitching staple Ryan Dempster’s fourth season as a Cubs starter. Dempster has been a consistent and reliable pitcher in most fantasy leagues, and there are no signs of this changing. His 208 strikeouts was 12th in the majors, and 15 wins was among the national league’s best. However, Dempster has had control problems, and in 2010 he walked 86 batters, seventh most in all of baseball.
The 2011 Cubbies should see more production with their offense, and starting pitchers will benefit. Dempster especially, who had the sixth most “tough losses” (losses in quality starts) with six games lost. Dempster will have similar numbers in 2011. I think the arrival of Garza takes some pressure off of him too. I see 16-8, 200 IP, 3.40 ERA, and 190 K for Dempster this season.
Matt Garza has packed his bags and will join the Cubs for his first season in the National League. While I do think Garza will find success in Chicago, I don’t know for sure if he will throw his best stuff in 2011. He has little experience pitching against national league teams, and his career 4.63 ERA against the NL isn’t anything special. Also, he’ll have to get used to a couple of new things like playing outdoors in an actual baseball stadium.
In his three years as a Rays starter, Garza’s ERA stayed in the high-3.00 range each year, and he steadily posted a WHIP around 1.25. With the Cubs this season, I think Garza will go 13-12, with 200 IP, a 4.20 ERA, and 170 strikeouts. Like I said, I’m not thinking too highly of him for this year.
To give you an idea of his 2010, here is Zambrano’s ERA month-by-month. 6.56 ERA after April, 6.12 ERA after May, 5.66 ERA after June, (only pitched one inning in July), 4.36 ERA after August, and finally finished the year with a solid 3.33 ERA. There are trade rumors with Z’s name in them, but if he stays in Chicago, I expect 14 wins, 180 IP, 3.70 ERA, and 160 K this year.
The 2009 version (12-10, 3.05 ERA, 104 K) of Randy Wells looked like a stud going into the 2010 season. Seems like it didn’t turn out like the Cubs had planned. Wells went 8-14 with a 4.26 ERA last year, but did manage to show better signs in the second half. Wells’ ERA went from 4.61 pre-All Star to 3.84 post-All Star. I don’t think Wells is draftable in standard leagues, but in NL-only leagues I can see him as a late round pick.
It’s a bird! It’s a plane! No, its… Carlos… Silva? Not saying he’s superman or anything, but since when does Carlos Silva start the year 8-0? I’ll tell you when, last year, his first year in Chicago too. I know he went 2-6 after that great start, but he had one of his better years of his career, (1.27 WHIP, .273 BAA, 6.4 K/9). I can see Silva being drafted in NL-only leagues, but his 2011 should show more of a modest stat line. Silva will get in a decent workload of around 150 IP. Maybe he can get another double-digit win season under his belt too. I see Silva going 11-13 with a 4.50 ERA and 90 K.
Out of the Cubbies’ Cave (Outside Pitchers Looking In):James Russell– The Cubs might be a little LHP heavy in the bullpen this year, and one of new manager Mike Quade’s ideas might be to convert Russell (LHP) into a starter. In 49 innings last year, Russell had 42 strikeouts and only 11 walks. It would be interesting to see what he can do as a starter, but he needs to be careful of the long ball, he gave up 11 home runs in those short 49 innings.
Andrew Cashner– Another potential starter is Andrew Cashner. Last year, this reliever was in his rookie season, and despite losing six games, he held 16 of them for the Cubs last season. He struck out 50 guys in 54.1 innings, but walked 30 of them too. If Cashner can get control of his pitches during spring training, there’s a slight chance he’ll emerge as a starter. Chances are he’ll start the year in his old role as a one or two inning relief pitcher.
Where do these four fall in your 2011 fantasy baseball overall pitcher rankings?
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Written by Tyler Becker exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com. Look for Tyler’s weekly insight into MLB, NFL, & NHL. You can follow Tyler on Twitter @FantasyProdigy
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Draft, Tyler Becker, 2011 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Pitching Previews, Fantasy Sports Blog, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, National League Central, Chicago Cubs, Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, Carlos Zambrano, Carlos Silva, Randy Wells, James Russell, Andrew Cashner
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