2011 Fantasy Baseball Pitching Preview: Zack Greinke & The Milwaukee Brewers
Baseball’s 2009 AL Cy Young winner is heading to the National League. Greinke will take his 2008 and 2009 stellar years with him to Milwaukee to take on the rest of the NL Central.
Greinke owners were annoyed all year by his shoddy numbers and lack of production. He went 10-14 in 220 IP with a 4.17 ERA and 181 strikeouts.
What we can take away from last season was his strikeouts, low home run total, and consistent walk rate. Greinke was able to strikeout more that 180 batters last season, and also allowed less than 20 home runs despite his 4.17 ERA. Along with his 55 walks (56 in 2008 and 51 in 2009), it looks like Greinke can definitely rebound and have a successful 2011 season.
I think Greinke will be a top-20 pitcher this year, and can possibly see 17 or 18 wins if Milwaukee’s offense can come alive.
Milwaukee’s second ace of the rotation is Yovani Gallardo. The 25-year-old stud is entering 2011 with two consecutive great seasons under his belt.
Gallardo’s 2009 and 2010 were very similar in terms of numbers, but the best part is his health. The injury bug has plagued him for a few seasons in his career, but Gallardo seems to be healthier than ever and ready to go. He has serious potential to be a top-20 starter in 2011.
One concern is his poor performance after the All Star break last season. Even though he went 6-3, Gallardo’s ERA was 5.77 after the break.
I think we can expect another solid year from him though. He should be able to get 14 wins, 200 strikeouts, a 3.70 ERA, and 185 IP once again.
One of the Brewers’ newest arrivals is starting pitcher Shaun Marcum. He missed all of 2009 recovering from Tommy John surgery. This sure didn’t stop him last season. Marcum had his best season of his career in 2010 going 13-8 with a 3.64 ERA and 165 strikeouts in 195.1 innings.
Marcum was a solid fantasy pitcher throughout the season, and in his career against the National League, he has a 3.36 ERA.
I think Marcum will be able to easily adjust into the NL Central and be a strong fantasy play in 2011. I see him ranked in the top-40 for mixed leagues, and a solid number two starter in NL-only leagues.
Randy Wolf will return for another year with Milwaukee, and for fantasy owners, that’s another year of staying away from this veteran pitcher.
Wolf is a guy that will give you a bloated ERA and minimal strikeouts. Last season was his worst K/9 year with only 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings (career K/9 average of 7.3). Wolf also gave up 29 home runs and 87 walks last season, both the highest of his 13-year career.
Even though Wolf might win double-digit games again, he’s just fantasy garbage from now on. If you are in an NL-only league, there’s a chance you find use out of him in the last few rounds. But I am extremely down on Wolf this year and will not be drafting him in any of my leagues.
Likely serving as Milwaukee’s fifth starter, Chris Narveson will look to build off his impressive 2010 second half. After the All Star break, Narveson went 5-3 in 81 IP with a 3.89 ERA. It will be a stretch for him to be a top-100 pitcher this season, but with those numbers for a full season you can argue Narveson as a potential mixed-league starter. Although Manny Parra has seen multiple starts for the Brewers recently, I think Narveson will win that fifth spot and hold onto it.
Manny Parra seems to be headed to the bullpen where he belongs. In the 16 games Parra started, only three of them were quality starts, while his average amount of innings per start was 5.3 IP. I really don’t see Parra becoming a starter again anytime soon, especially with the surprising success he had as a reliever. He didn’t allow a single run in his last nine games of the season (13.2 IP, 19 K, 7 BB). He looks like a lock to be in the Brewers’ bullpen for 2011, giving an even greater edge to the possibility of Narveson’s as the team’s fifth starter.
Written by Tyler Becker exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com. Look for Tyler’s weekly insight into MLB, NFL, & NHL. You can follow Tyler on Twitter @FantasyProdigy
Want to read Tyler's other National League Central previews to prepare for your 2011 fantasy baseball draft? Read about the Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs, Cincinatti Reds!
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Draft, Tyler Becker, 2011 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Pitching Previews, Fantasy Sports Blog, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, National League Central, Milwaukee Brewers, Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum, Yovani Gallardo