2011 Fantasy Baseball Roundtable: Experts Are Buying Adum Dunn, Andrew McCutchen & More!
We’ve trolled the internet to find some of the most interesting, knowledgeable and reliable figures in fantasy baseball today, and asked them to share their knowledge and expertise on the following topic:
Based on historical trends or statistics, identify one fantasy baseball hitter OR pitcher that you consider an excellent target to “Buy” (or “Buy Low” as some say) via trade as we approach June.
This is what they said…
True to form, Dunn is striking out frequently this year. In fact, he is striking out at the highest rate of his career, 38.8% of the time. As a result, his batting average is a predictably low .216. The bigger problem is that the home runs have not been there so far. Were Dunn to continue on his current pace, he would end 2011 with around 20 home runs.
But Dunn’s HR/FB rate is roughly half that of his career rate at this point, and that should come around because Dunn is still hitting the ball in the air (50% FB%) and hitting it hard (20.8% LD%). In other words, it seems that Dunn’s power outage is more a result of bad fortune rather than a declining skill set.
In the preseason many pointed out that the move to the White Sox and the hitter-friendly U.S Cellular would be beneficial, or, at the very least, not detrimental to Dunn’s power numbers. It may not seem like that has been the case so far, but sooner or later (probably sooner) Dunn is going to start proving that logic right. So if you are searching for power, Dunn is a good trade target. You might be able to get him for less than full value and acquire 25-30 homers from here on out.
Written by TheFantasyFix.com’s senior fantasy baseball analyst, Brett Talley. Check out Brett’s column, The Rubber, where he breaks down the top 50 pitchers on a weekly basis. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL
Perhaps the biggest reason to expect a rebound from Kinsler is a .223 average on balls in play that’s 66 points below his career norm. As a result, his expected average (according to BaseballHQ.com) is a more palatable .291. Many owners see Kinsler’s paltry RBI total (15) and chalk that up to not getting many opportunities at the top of the order. Despite hitting in the leadoff spot, he’s had runners on base in 40% of his at-bats. Yet he’s hitting just .179 with runners on and .161 with them in scoring position. Just average luck on balls he puts in play will boost his average, help him to drive in more runs and allow his ability to hit for power to shine through.
In addition, the one bright spot for Kinsler owners this season — seven stolen bases — could turn into an even bigger advantage once he starts getting on base more frequently. With solid skills contradicting many of his surface stats, Kinsler makes a nice buy-low opportunity for savvy fantasy owners.
Written by Steve Gardner of USA Today. Check out Steve Gardner’s Fantasy Windup blog online at fantasywindup.usatoday.com and follow him on Twitter@sgardnerUSAT.
(March 10, 2011 – Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images North America)
Throw in a better lineup around him, moving down in the order to 3rd meant the power would also increase. I projected McCutchen at .290-100 R-25 HR-80 RBI-30 SB. The only concern I had was – How would the change from leadoff to the 3 hole effect his approach at the plate?
McCutchen’s 2010 value was $18 in a standard 12 tm mixed and I pegged him at $25-$28 for 2011. He is only at $13 so far this year but if he was hitting .290 he would be right at $18 again. In April, he was dealing with some family issues plus a BABIP of .243, where his career BABIP is around .310-.320. All of McCutchen’s other metrics are inline including an increase in FB% to 50%.
The only exception is his K% and it’s over 20%, but he has already adjusted and it’s down to 15% in May. I contribute the K% increase to the lineup change, and now that McCutchen is back in the leadoff spot his K% is 15% albeit a small sample size. Grady Sizemore was a Fantasy stud hitting .265/30 HR/100 RBI/30 SB and McCutchen can be that type of player with a higher batting average and a little less power.
Michael Rathburn is the resident Dynasty league guru at RotoExperts.com with two weekly columns – Farmer’s Market (Minor league baseball) and Burn Notice (Dynasty league football).
You can email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter @RotoExpertMRath
(April 28, 2011 – Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images North America)
A .335 BABIP helped as well, but the home runs, runs and RBI that came along with being a part of the stellar Yankee lineup were all part of the equation.
This season, Swisher is off to a horrible start, hitting only .221/.338/.311 with a mere two home runs in 148 plate appearances. However, Swisher's numbers suggest that an improvement is coming.
His current .263 BABIP is extremely low considering his line-drive rate of almost 25 percent. While it's no lock that Swisher will hit much more than .265 the rest of the way, his power numbers should start to spike before long.
In both 2009 and 2010, Swisher hit 29 home runs and held a HR/FB rate above 15 percent. His current HR/FB rate is only five percent. The lowest HR/FB rate of his career as a full time regular was 11.6 percent back in 2007. There’s just no way that Swisher’s power doesn’t show up again.
Given his complete lack of production so far in 2011, you can probably get Swisher for 10 cents on the dollar. He may have even been cut in some leagues. Now might be the best time to buy low and reap the rewards of the rest of his season.
Written by Charlie Saponara
Owner/Author Fantasy Baseball 365
Columnist, Fire Brand of the AL (Affiliate of ESPN's Sweet Spot Network)
Columnist, Sons of Roto
Contributor, Project Prospect
Twitter.com/CharlieSaponara
(May 12, 2011 – Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images North America)
With that said, I would recommend buying in on
John Danks. The 0-6 W-L record makes him look much worse than he has been, but he is someone I would target without fear. He has given up six in five and five in six in two of his last three starts. And in the other start, he didn’t strike anyone out, so with that three start run his owner may be souring so it is time to swoop in.He is being punished by an abnormal BABIP (.327 as opposed to .267 and .274 marks the last two years), but there is no discernible skill change to explain the difference meaning there is reason to believe it will regress back to his norm. He has also become one of the most reliable workhorses in the games, too (195, 200 and 213 IP the last three years) meaning you can just about guarantee another 24-25 starts of mid-3.00s ERA and mid-1.20s WHIP or better. Meanwhile, three year bests in his strikeout and walk rates also suggest positive things for Danks in the near future. Buy.
Written by Paul Sporer of paulsporer.com. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer
(May 9, 2011 – Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images North America)
So what has happened in three starts in May? All Dempster has done is produced three quality starts thanks to a 2.25 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. He's also posted a K per inning and has only walked three batters.
On the year that leaves Dempster with a 6.71 ERA that should be half that – literally. His xFIP, which records what a pitchers ERA should be based upon the events that are in his control (it also normalized homer rates) says his mark should be 3.30. I don't doubt that he can get his ERA back into the 3's this year.
Written by Ray Flowers of BaseballGuys.com. Follow Ray on Twitter @baseballguys. Ray is also the host of The Fantasy Drive on Monday-Friday from 5-8 PM EDT on XM 87, Sirius 210.
Well there you have it. The experts suggest buying Adam Dunn, Andrew McCutchen, Ryan Dempster, Nick Swisher and Ian Kinsler.
Do you agree or disagree with these five choices? Why or why not?
Who are you buying on?
Leave us a comment, or tell us on twitter @TheFantasyFix!
Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Baseball Advice, Roundtable, Fantasy Baseball Tips, Buy Low, Trade Targets, Ian Kinsler, Andrew McCutchen, Ryan Dempster, Adam Dunn, Nick Swisher, Ray Flowers, Steve Gardner, Brett Talley, Charlie Saponara, Michael Rathburn
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