2011 Fantasy Baseball, THE RUBBER Week 10: Top 50 Pitcher Rankings

Alan Harrison · June 8, 2011

Josh Collmenter

Did you ever have to move back in with your parents for the summer? Or have you ever just had to move back in with your parents? Either way, it sucks. Take your pick of what you want to complain about, and the complaints can vary from parent to parent, but what annoys me the most about my parents is the cheapness. Maybe I should not complain considering all the stuff they have paid for, but the fact remains that my dad still has to use the word ‘splurge’ every time he orders a Diet Coke when we go out to eat.

See, my parents have a strange conception of value. For example, they will ask me not to leave on lights and to turn off a fan when I leave a room, but they will not call the AC repairman so that the unit does not have to run all day. They worry about the lamp that will cost 17 cents to leave on all month, but do not seem to be fazed by the most expensive piece of electrical equipment connected to the house that runs all day every day.

What does any of this have to do with fantasy baseball? Very little, actually. I really just wanted an outlet to complain about my current living situation. However, there is some comparison between my father’s convoluted thriftiness and the guy(s) in your league who also have no idea how to properly assess a player’s true value.

For one, some fantasy players do not know what something actually costs. They are far too influenced by a hot start or hot streak. For example, some may be treating Kelly Johnson more like my dad treats a light bulb and less like he treats the AC. KJ has been absolutely on fire the last two weeks, but you should sell if you can because these may be the best consecutive weeks Johnson has all year.

Others either do not know about, do not believe in, or do not understand advanced metrics. In any form of competition, having more information that your competitors, or simply understanding mutual information better, has never been a bad thing. For example, my dad could save a lot of money if he understood that an extra shower before bed runs up the water bill more so than leaving the sink running while you brush your teeth.

Alright, enough bagging on my wonderful parents. Let’s talk pitching.

Coming Regression
All season long, Josh Tomlin, Alexi Ogando, and Jair Jurrjens have been the captains of my All-Future-Regression Team. Ogando and Jurrjens still hold that position (though I look forward to gloating about their inevitable demise when it happens), but Tomlin finally seems to be running out of luck (ERA exactly 8.00 over his last three starts). So it seems we need a replacement. I submit for your consideration, Mr. Josh Collmenter (Arizona Diamondbacks, 47.6% owned).

Collmenter was one of the three most added players on ESPN this week, so it would appear that his 1.25 ERA and 0.67 WHIP (compiled over 5 starts and some relief work) have some people buying in (or riding the streak at the very least). But as I like to say, do not be deceived, my friend!

His strand rate is abnormally high (86.1%), his BABIP is stupendously low (1.63), his ground ball rate is not bad but below average (39.2%), and he strikes no one out (5.40 K/9). About the only thing he does well is avoid issuing free passes (1.04 BB/9), but that ‘pro’ is nowhere near significant enough to offset all the ‘cons.’

Something tells me it will not be too long before Collmenter is one of the most dropped players on ESPN.

He Puts on a Glove, I Give Him Some Love
There is only one guy with a strand rate under 67%, a BABIP over .300, a K/9 over 8.00, and with a FIP and xFIP both below 4.00. That would be my old flame, Chris Narveson (Milwaukee Brewers. 7.0% owned).

There is no doubt that Narv is streaky and victimized by too many free passes issued, but at some point soon there may be a nice little hot streak that comes along to even everything out. His next two starts home to St. Louis and at Chicago are not ideal, but as soon as he puts together a good outing, I would grab him and try to catch two or three games of Jekyll before he turns back into Hyde.

In case you have not noticed, it seems that Greinke has it together. Over his last three starts he is 3-0 with a 3.15 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 9.9 K/9.

It was a lonely couple of weeks at the Talley house with Garza on the DL, but Monday night I killed the fatted calf and hung a 50-foot “Welcome Back” banner (which, by the way, did not come cheap at Kinko’s) so that I could celebrate the return of the love my (fantasy) life.

Things did not go so well (4 IP, 4 ER), but give my boy a start or two more to get back in the groove, and put him right back in your starting rotation. Sometime soon he should start delivering on all the positive regression that his numbers promise. Hopefully he is healthy because it would be a shame to see that 62.5% strand rate, .364 BABIP, 50% GB%, 2.20 FIP, 2.57 xFIP go to waste because of an extended DL trip.

Not sure how it happened, but I now have a guy with a BB/9 over 5.00 ranked as a top 40 pitcher. Wait, what? That cannot be right.

He only gets the last slot because I still refuse to put Alexi Ogando in my top 50 for no other reason than my inflated sense of pride.

Out this week: Brett Anderson

All ownership percentages from ESPN.com

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who wishes he was a law student in Dallas, not a kid spending the summer at his folk’s place. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.

(April 16, 2011 – Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images North America)

Tags: The Fantasy Fix, 2011 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Advice, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings, Brett Talley, Pitching Profile, The Rubber

2011 Fantasy Baseball, THE RUBBER Week 10: Top 50 Pitcher Rankings

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