2011 Fantasy Baseball, THE RUBBER Week 15: Top 50 Pitcher Rankings
For a very long time, defense was baseball’s forgotten third facet. But recently that has changed as all kinds of metrics have been developed in an attempt to properly assess defensive skill and value. And thank God for that because the subjectivity of errors makes that stat and fielding percentage ineffective tools with which to evaluate defense.
However, the new metrics used to measure individual defense are better but not perfect, and it can be difficult to understand how they are calculated. On the other hand, you may be familiar with Bill James’ simple and brilliant method to evaluate team defense, a stat called defensive efficiency.
As defined by Baseball Prospectus, defensive efficiency is, simply put, the rate at which balls put into play are converted into outs by a team’s defense.
Grantland’s Rany Jazayerli recently detailed specific examples of the 1991 Braves and 2008 Rays going from the worst team in baseball one year to a division champion the next simply by overhauling their defense and going from the bottom to the top of the defensive efficiency rankings.So in these days of Moneyball and Fangraphs, baseball’s third facet is something that people in the front offices around baseball are certainly aware of. Defense definitely isn’t the exploitable market inefficiency that it used to be.
However, a stat like defensive inefficiency is one that remains under utilized by fantasy players as it pertains to evaluating pitchers. You will hear or read about stats like BABIP, strand rate, and K rate all the time, but the words defensive efficiency don’t come up all that often in fantasy discussions. But a quick look at the defensive efficiency rankings will tell you what pitchers are getting a little extra help.
Defensive efficiency is also an excellent supplement to some other more commonly cited sabermetrics.
For example, a “lucky” BABIP and/or FIP may be less susceptible to regression if the pitcher is backed by a solid defense.
James Shields (Tampa Bay Rays, 100% owned) currently has a 2.33 ERA but a 3.02 FIP and a below-the-mean BABIP of .257. Yet the regression that those numbers indicate is not likely to bring Shields all the way back to the mean, if at all, partly because of Tampa Bay’s fantastic defense (the other part would be his excellent skill set). Tampa Bay has the best defensive efficiency ranking in baseball, and Jonah Keri has said this might be the best defense since the 1950’s.
You could argue that this analysis could be applied to other pitchers with a low BABIP, a negative ERA-FIP deferential, and a strong defense behind them. Guys like
Jeremy Hellickson, Jair Jurrjens, Jason Vargas, or Trevor Cahill, for example. But I feel it would be a mistake to cite only a fantastic defense as the reason a pitcher may avoid regression. I’d prefer a solid D and a solid skill set. You know, like the ability to carry a K:BB over 3.00, which is something none of the four guys just listed can currently claim.On the flip side, when a pitcher has an “unlucky” BABIP and/or FIP you normally expect some positive regression, but you can be even more certain that positive regression is on its way if the pitcher is backed by a solid defense.
Madison Bumgarner (San Francisco Giants, 88.9% owned)currently has the highest BABIP among all qualified pitchers (.342) and a positive ERA-FIP deferential of 1.37. Considering the fact that San Francisco ranks in the top ten of defensive efficiency, it seems very likely that there is some positive regression in Bumgarner’s immediate future.
The Top 50
1.
Roy Halladay | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week: 12. Cliff Lee | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week: 2
3. Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week: 3
4. Cole Hamels | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week: 4
5. Jered Weaver | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week: 6
6. Justin Verlander | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned | Last week: 7
7. Dan Haren | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week: 8
8. CC Sabathia | New York Yankees | 100% owned | Last week: 11
9. Clayton Kershaw | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week: 9
No pitcher finished 2010 with a K/9 of ten or higher. Two pitchers, Verlander and Lincecum, did it in 2009. Kershaw, who currently has a K/9 of 10.13, is probably the only pitcher who has a shot to do it this year.
10.
Felix Hernandez | Seattle Mariners | 100% owned | Last week: 511. David Price | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned | Last week: 10
12. Zack Greinke | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week: 12
13. James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned | Last week: 13
14. Tommy Hanson | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week: 14
15. Matt Cain | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week: 15
16. Jaime Garcia | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned | Last week: 19
17. C.J. Wilson | Texas Rangers | 100% owned | Last week: 18
18. Shaun Marcum | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week: 20
19. Daniel Hudson | Arizona Diamondbacks | 100% owned | Last week: 21
20. Ubaldo Jimenez | Colorado Rockies | 100% owned | Last week: 26
Via @therealTAL (aka my Twitter account) on 7/9, here are the stats for Ubaldo over his last eight starts:
2.53 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 8.44 K/9
Nice to see Ubaldo back on track. It’s also very fun to say Ubaldo.
21.
Matt Garza | Chicago Cubs | 92.4% owned | Last week: 1722. Jon Lester | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned | Last week: 22
23. Anibal Sanchez | Florida Marlins |97.7% owned |Last week: 16
24. Chris Carpenter | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned | Last week: 23
25. Chad Billingsley | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week: 25
26. Ian Kennedy | Arizona Diamondbacks | 100% owned | Last week: 33
27. Yovani Gallardo | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week: 24
28. Mat Latos | San Diego Padres | 98.2% owned | Last week: 34
29. Ricky Romero | Toronto Blue Jays | 100% owned | Last week: 30
30. Tim Hudson | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week: 31
31. Scott Baker | Minnesota Twins | 70.2% owned | Last week: 37
32. Michael Pineda | Seattle Mariners | 100% owned | Last week: 27
33. Jordan Zimmerman | Washington Nationals | 100% owned | Last week: 28
I’ve previously mentioned a probable innings limit for Pineda, but I should also point out that
William Ladson has reported via Twitter that Zimmerman will be limited to 160 innings this year, which means he should make about seven more starts this season. As a result, you should be trying to deal Zimmerman if you can. And if you try hard enough you can. I managed to ship him in two leagues this week.34.
Josh Beckett | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned| Last week: 2935. Ricky Nolasco | Florida Marlins |90.6% owned | Last week: 32
36. Madison Bumgarner | San Francisco Giants | 88.9% owned | Last week: 49
37. Gio Gonzalez | Oakland Athletics | 100% owned | Last week: 38
38. Brandon Beachy | Atlanta Braves | 98.6% owned | Last week: 47
39. Tim Stauffer | San Diego Padres | 84.9% owned | Last week: 39
40. Bud Norris |Houston Astros | 67.9% owned | Last week: 40
41. Brandon Morrow | Toronto Blue Jays | 90.2% owned | Last week: 46
42. Wandy Rodriguez | Houston Astros | 94.0% owned | Last week: 35
43. Max Scherzer | Detroit Tigers | 97.9% owned | Last week: 36
44. Jair Jurrjens | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week: 48
45. Justin Masterson | Cleveland Indians | 86.8% owned | Last week: 43
46. Trevor Cahill | Oakland Athletics | 100% owned | Last week: 41
47. Ryan Dempster | Chicago Cubs | 45.4% owned | Last week: 42
48. Jhoulys Chacin | Colorado Rockies | 100% owned | Last week: 45
49. Jonathon Niese | New York Mets | 13.3% owned | Last week: NR
Pros: +0.47 ERA-FIP deferential, BABIP and strand rate are very close to the mean, K/9 is around 7.50, BB/9 is below 3, above average ground ball rate of 51.4%.
Cons: 1.36 WHIP, his name is still Jon Niese.
For me, a guy who has pitched like a 3.50 ERA pitcher with a mid-7 K/9 deserves a top 50 ranking.
50.
Edwin Jackson | Chicago White Sox | 13.4% owned| Last week: 50Out this week: Hiroki Kuroda
All ownership percentages from ESPN.com
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who wishes his copulation efficiency was a little more Tampa Bay and a little less North Side Chicago. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.
(June 18, 2011 – Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images North America)
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