2011 Fantasy Baseball, THE RUBBER Week 19: Top 50 Rankings & Understanding Regression
It’s a word that has been used at some point in the last eight versions of The Rubber. It’s been used a total of 29 times in those eight weeks.
Yet, for as frequently as I use the term, I still don’t completely understand how regression works. For example, if a pitcher has an ERA of 2.00, but the ERA estimators (i.e. xFIP and SIERA) say his ERA should be 3.00, what does that mean exactly?
Does that mean we should expect his ERA to regress all the way back to 3.00? Or does that mean we should expect that pitcher’s ERA from that point forward to be around 3.00?
The query makes me think of probability lessons in high school math class. Probability says that if you roll a die and see a ‘six,’ you are no less likely to see another ‘six’ the next time you roll the die. However, a pitcher doesn’t throw any two pitches where all the variables are exactly the same, as they are when you roll a die. Moreover, given a large enough number of rolls, you’re likely to see a pretty even distribution of the numbers that come up on that die.
I understand that the end of the season is a completely arbitrary endpoint, but for the purposes of fantasy baseball, I thought it might be useful to know if pitchers are seeing their ERA’s fall all the way back to their ERA estimators within the same season.
In an attempt to answer this question, I’ve decided to take a look at some guys I’ve identified as candidates for regression throughout the year despite the small sample sizes, arbitrary endpoints and limited number of players to observe. Maybe some sort of pattern will emerge.
Alexi Ogando (Texas Rangers, 100% owned)
After a complete game shutout of the White Sox on May 23, Ogando’s ERA reached its low point of 1.81. All season long, the ERA estimators have said Ogando’s ERA should have been somewhere in the neighborhood of 3.60-3.70. So, since the shutout of the Sox, has Ogando been a 3.70 ERA guy or worse?
Since that day, Ogando’s ERA has been 4.36 over 14 starts. However, that only brings his season ERA up to 2.88, which is a run higher than it was at its lowest but still almost a run lower than what the ERA estimators indicate it should be.
Ogando’s defenders will argue that his regression is a result of his large innings increase as he has already thrown about 60 more innings than he did last season. And it’s a legitimate defense of Ogando. Either way, I expect Ogando’s ERA to be closer to 3.60 than 2.90 by season’s end.
Jair Jurrjens (Atlanta Braves, 98.9% owned)
Heading into the All-Star break, Jurrjens had an ERA under 2.00. However, the ERA estimators said it should be closer to 4.00. In the four starts after the Break, Jurrjens hit a rough patch and saw his ERA rise almost a full run up to 2.63.
Once again, Jurrjens defenders have an excuse for the regression. Jurrjens was placed on the DL on August 2 with a strained knee and one could argue it was the cause of his recent struggles.
As far as I’m concerned, the DL stint is just a two week interruption in helping to answer my question. When Jurrjens gets back, I’ll be interested to see if his ERA the rest of the way looks more like the 6.00+ number he put up post All-Star break or the 4.00 number of which SIERA says he’s capable.
Josh Tomlin (Cleveland Indians, 53.8% owned)
At the end of May, Tomlin owned a 2.74 ERA. The ERA estimators said it should have been around 4.00. Just over two months later, Tomlin’s 4.08 ERA is almost identical to his 4.07 SIERA. We can count Tomlin as a guy who regressed all the way to the mean rather than just a guy who began pitching like the mean said he should have been pitching all along.
Ryan Vogelsong (San Francisco Giants, 100% owned)
For the most part, Vogelsong has avoided the regression monster (although his five earned allowed to the Pirates on Monday could be the beginning of the end).
However, the thing that jumps out at me when looking at Vogelsong’s numbers is his strikeout rate. His 7.05 K/9 resembles Ogando’s 6.85 mark and is markedly better that Jurrjens’ 5.72 or Tomlin’s 4.81. Could it be that a pitcher’s ability to rack up K’s could determine whether he will crash back to the mean or simply begin to pitch as he should have all along?
Someone much smarter and with access to more sortable information would have to examine the question further in order to find a definitive answer. But it does seem to make some amount of sense to me that pitchers who can get more outs via something they can control (the strikeout) would be more likely to avoid a full regression to the mean and rather simply be all that SIERA says they can be.
Alright, let’s rank ‘em. Just a reminder, these rankings are meant to rank expected performance from this point forward, not performance to this point.
The Top 50
1. Roy Halladay | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week: 1
2. Clayton Kershaw | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week: 2
3. Cliff Lee | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week: 3
4. Justin Verlander | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned | Last week: 4
5. Cole Hamels | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week: 5
6. CC Sabathia | New York Yankees | 100% owned | Last week: 6
7. David Price | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned | Last week: 8
8. Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week: 7
9. Felix Hernandez | Seattle Mariners | 100% owned | Last week: 9
10. James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned | Last week: 10
11. Zack Greinke | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week: 11
12. Tommy Hanson | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week: 12
13. Dan Haren | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week: 13
14. Jon Lester | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned | Last week: 14
15. Jered Weaver | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week: 15
16. Anibal Sanchez | Florida Marlins |81.4% owned |Last week: 17
17. Matt Garza | Chicago Cubs | 98.9% owned | Last week: 18
18. Jaime Garcia | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned | Last week: 16
19. Matt Cain | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week: 19
20. Ubaldo Jimenez | Cleveland Indians | 100% owned | Last week: 20
21. Brandon Beachy | Atlanta Braves | 92.0% owned | Last week: 26
22. Madison Bumgarner | San Francisco Giants | 95.5% owned | Last week: 28
23. Josh Beckett | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned| Last week: 27
24. C.J. Wilson | Texas Rangers | 100% owned | Last week: 22
25. Ian Kennedy | Arizona Diamondbacks | 100% owned | Last week: 23
26. Mat Latos | San Diego Padres | 98.6% owned | Last week: 30
27. Yovani Gallardo | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week: 31
28. Daniel Hudson | Arizona Diamondbacks | 100% owned | Last week: 24
29. Ricky Romero | Toronto Blue Jays | 100% owned | Last week: 32
30. Ervin Santana | Los Angeles Angels | 99.7% owned | Last week: 40
31. Tim Hudson | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week: 33
32. Chris Carpenter | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned | Last week: 29
33. Gio Gonzalez | Oakland Athletics | 95.0% owned | Last week: 35
34. Shaun Marcum | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week: 25
35. Brandon Morrow | Toronto Blue Jays | 93.9% owned | Last week: 36
36. Jonathon Niese | New York Mets | 19.8% owned | Last week: 39
37. Hiroki Kuroda | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week: 46
38. Bud Norris |Houston Astros | 36.0% owned | Last week: 34
39. Wandy Rodriguez | Houston Astros | 85.1% owned | Last week: 37
40. Max Scherzer | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned | Last week: 44
41. Tim Stauffer | San Diego Padres | 56.4% owned | Last week: 42
42. Roy Oswalt | Philadelphia Phillies | 95.6% owned | Last week: NR
43. Justin Masterson | Cleveland Indians | 100% owned | Last week: 47
44. Bartolo Colon | New York Yankees | 42.7% owned | Last week: NR
45. Ricky Nolasco | Florida Marlins |74.3% owned | Last week: 41
46. Chad Billingsley | Los Angeles Dodgers | 98.9% owned | Last week: 38
47. Ryan Dempster | Chicago Cubs | 40.5% owned | Last week: 48
48. Ted Lilly | Los Angeles Dodgers | 36.5 % owned | Last week: NR
49. John Danks | Chicago White Sox | 65.7% owned | Last week: NR
50. Edwin Jackson | St. Louis Cardinals | 39.9% owned| Last week: 45
Out this week: Juan Nicasio, Scott Baker, Chris Narveson, Jhoulys Chacin
All ownership percentages from ESPN.com
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who is a terrible Rangers fan because he gets all giddy when Alexi Ogando has a bad start. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.
(August 8, 2011 – Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images North America)
The Author
