2011 Fantasy Baseball, THE RUBBER Week 20: Top 50 Rankings & Cueto Broken Down
I covered
Ryan Vogelsong (San Francisco Giants) last week, but I haven’t touched on Johnny Cueto (Cincinnati Reds) and Jeremy Hellickson (Tampa Bay Rays) much, if at all, this season.If Cueto had the innings to qualify, he would lead all of major league baseball in ERA with the only sub-2.00 ERA. Throw in the 1.02 WHIP and there is little doubt that Cueto has provided a huge return for those who made the negligible investment of picking him up off the waiver wire.
The problem is that it’s all smoke and mirrors. We’re talking smoldering and funhouse-like reflections.
Let’s start with the .227 BABIP. Even if we cut Cueto some slack and say his career .281 BABIP is a fair regression point instead of the usual .300, that still puts him over 50 points below where he should be in that category. That shows that the 1.02 WHIP has less to do with the good-not-great walk rate (which Cueto can control) and more to do with batted balls not falling for hits (which Cueto can’t control).
The low BABIP also contributes to the artificially low ERA. The best ERA estimators (xFIP and SIERA) say Cueto’s ERA should be almost 4.00 based on how he has pitched this season. Some pitchers (like Matt Cain and possibly Jair Jurrjens) have shown some ability to consistently outperform their peripherals, but Cueto’s 100 or so innings this season is far from a large enough sample size to include him in that class.
Also helping with the deceptively low ERA are the HR/FB rate (5.3%, which is about half Cueto’s career rate) and the suddenly above average groundball rate (52.6%). The HR/FB rate has to come up at some point and will contribute to the impending regression, but the groundball rate is potentially a mitigating factor. However, Cueto was pretty consistently a 40% groundball pitcher over his first 500 innings, so it’s more likely than not that the sudden improvement is an aberration.
The only additional number of Cueto’s to look at is strikeout rate. Depending on how high it is, it could make regression less pronounced. However, Cueto’s K/9 is under 6.00. As a result, there is little doubt in my mind that this little run of Johnny’s will end sooner rather than later. You’d be wise to address a need and fill that hole for the stretch run by dealing Cueto.
As for Hellickson, you may not know it yet, but he has taken a huge step back in his first full major league season. The 3.22 ERA and 1.18 WHIP might be hiding that fact from some, but Hellickson has not been the same pitcher that he was during his brief call up last season.
Like Cueto, Hellickson is benefitting from a low BABIP. His current .234 mark is unsustainable. Moreover, his 79.3% strand rate is high enough that regression is likely in that category as well.
And where have the strikeouts gone? Not to mention the control. His K/9 is down to 6.03 while his BB/9 is up to 3.35. Those two numbers look far too much like
Clay Buchholz’s for my liking.The ERA estimators see right through Hellickson. SIERA and xFIP have him pegged as a 4.50-sh ERA pitcher this season. It’s certainly possible that Hellickson is just going through some growing pains and adjusting to major league hitting, but someone in your league may not realize that. Deal Hellickson if you can and let someone else’s roto numbers feel the effects of Hellickson’s regression.
Alright, let’s rank ‘em. Just a reminder, these rankings are meant to rank expected performance from this point forward, not performance to this point.
The Top 50
1. Roy Halladay | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week: 1
2. Clayton Kershaw | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week: 2
3. Cliff Lee | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week: 3
4. Justin Verlander | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned | Last week: 4
5. Cole Hamels | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week: 5
6. CC Sabathia | New York Yankees | 100% owned | Last week: 6
7. David Price | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned | Last week: 7
8. Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week: 8
9. Felix Hernandez | Seattle Mariners | 100% owned | Last week: 9
10. James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned | Last week: 10
11. Zack Greinke | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week: 11
12. Dan Haren | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week: 13
13. Jon Lester | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned | Last week: 14
14. Jered Weaver | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week: 15
15. Matt Garza | Chicago Cubs | 98.0% owned | Last week: 17
16. Jaime Garcia | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned | Last week: 18
17. Matt Cain | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week: 19
18. Anibal Sanchez | Florida Marlins |61.2% owned |Last week: 16
I could spend a few paragraphs detailing how Anibal has been baseball’s unluckiest pitcher the last couple of months, or I could just link to this article and let Peter Christensen explain.
19. Brandon Beachy | Atlanta Braves | 97.2% owned | Last week: 21
20. Madison Bumgarner | San Francisco Giants | 99.6% owned | Last week: 22
21. Josh Beckett | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned| Last week: 23
22. Mat Latos | San Diego Padres | 100% owned | Last week: 26
23. C.J. Wilson | Texas Rangers | 100% owned | Last week: 24
24. Yovani Gallardo | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week: 27
25. Ervin Santana | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week: 30
26. Ubaldo Jimenez | Cleveland Indians | 100% owned | Last week: 20
27. Ian Kennedy | Arizona Diamondbacks | 100% owned | Last week: 25
28. Daniel Hudson | Arizona Diamondbacks | 100% owned | Last week: 28
29. Ricky Romero | Toronto Blue Jays | 100% owned | Last week: 29
30. Tim Hudson | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week: 31
31. Chris Carpenter | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned | Last week: 32
32. Shaun Marcum | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week: 34
33. Justin Masterson | Cleveland Indians | 100% owned | Last week: 43
34. Bud Norris |Houston Astros | 35.2% owned | Last week: 38
35. Tommy Hanson | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week: 12
With so little time left in the season, missing two or three starts will really hurt Hanson’s value. But as soon as he returns Hanson becomes a top 15 play again.
36. Max Scherzer | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned | Last week: 40
37. Roy Oswalt | Philadelphia Phillies | 98.7% owned | Last week: 42
38. Gio Gonzalez | Oakland Athletics | 90.9% owned | Last week: 33
39. Hiroki Kuroda | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week: 37
40. Brandon Morrow | Toronto Blue Jays | 93.0% owned | Last week: 35
41. Jonathon Niese | New York Mets | 22.7% owned | Last week: 36
42. Corey Luebke | Sand Diego Padres | 52.0% owned | Last week: NR
Luebke is the only new addition to this week’s top 50, and I must admit that I’ve overlooked him for a couple of weeks now because he doesn’t have the innings pitched necessary to qualify for the ERA title.
However, Luebke absolutely deserves a top 50 ranking. In fact, I’m not sure I have him ranked high enough. His current ERA of 3.00 is backed up by SIERA and xFIP, both of which have Luebke as a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher. Any luck he has received hasn’t been too drastic. His BABIP is only .262, he’s actually been a touch unlucky in the strand rate department, and his low-ish HR/FB rate shouldn’t regress too much thanks to the home run suppressing Petco Park.
And how about the K/BB rate close to 4.00 thanks to a 9.55 K/9 and 2.51 BB/9? Those are some stellar numbers.
Admittedly, Luebke didn’t display this kind of strikeout ability in the minors, so strikeout levels this high could be a flash in the pan. But, for now, Luebke looks like a legit option that should be owned in far more leagues than he currently is.
43. Wandy Rodriguez | Houston Astros | 86.8% owned | Last week: 39
44. Tim Stauffer | San Diego Padres | 34.6% owned | Last week: 41
45. Bartolo Colon | New York Yankees | 47.7% owned | Last week: 44
46. Ricky Nolasco | Florida Marlins |81.6% owned | Last week: 45
47. Chad Billingsley | Los Angeles Dodgers | 94.2% owned | Last week: 46
48. Ted Lilly | Los Angeles Dodgers | 40.1% owned | Last week: 48
49. John Danks | Chicago White Sox | 60.5% owned | Last week: 49
50. Ryan Dempster | Chicago Cubs | 66.0% owned | Last week: 47
Out this week: Edwin Jackson
All ownership percentages from ESPN.com
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who [insert witty/self-deprecating comment here]. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.
(August 10, 2011 – Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images North America)
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