2011 Fantasy Baseball, THE RUBBER Week 21: Top 50 Rankings & Playing Matchups
A lot of leagues are formalities at this point with one team running away with the roto points. Other leagues have the playoff teams all but decided and are waiting for the fantasy playoffs to start. And some leagues don’t allow add/drops once the playoffs start.
Not to mention the fact that tons of people have shifted into full blown fantasy football mode.
So this will be the last ‘The Rubber’ of the season. The last normal one that is. Next week I’ll post my top 50 keeper list with some commentary attached.
But for this last regular edition of ‘The Rubber,’ I’ve selected four guys that are owned in less than 20% of leagues who could be useful down the stretch based on the matchups they will draw.
Matchups assume the pitcher starts every fifth game.
Mike Minor (Atlanta Braves, 19.8% owned) Matchups: @NYM, LAD, @STL, FLA, @FLA, PHI
It’s not all gravy for Minor as probable starts at St. Louis and home to Philly aren’t ideal. However, Philly is likely to have the division all wrapped up by the last series of the season, so it’s possible that Minor might see a diluted Phillies lineup.
A lot of Minor’s value may depend on whether Tommy Hanson can make it back, but after a recent setback for Hanson, Minor’s chances of sticking in the majors the rest of the season look much better.
In four August starts, Minor has posted a 2.65 xFIP, 26 K’s in 22.1 IP and has issued only 4 walks. His 1.38 WHIP over that span is driven by a BABIP over .400. With more favorable starts than questionable starts coming up, Minor should be able to keep this little roll going.
Doug Fister (Detroit Tigers, 7.4% owned) Matchups: @TB, KC, CWS, MIN, @OAK, @KC, CLE
Now there is a truly appetizing list of probable starts. There isn’t a single team on that list in the top 10 in runs or home runs this season. Fister also happens to be a pretty good pitcher. He isn’t going to strike anybody out, but he’s a pretty reliable sub-4.00 ERA and sub-1.30 WHIP type of guy. Someone who can help with ratios this late in the season is a difficult thing to find.
There is some concern that Fister won’t be the same without the help of Safeco in Seattle, but Detroit’s Comerica Park isn’t exactly a hitter’s park either. In fact, Fister has had his two best outings as a Tiger there. He held Cleveland and Texas to one and two runs respectively over seven innings in each start. He had a little trouble with Baltimore, but that was on the road. And his other start was cut short due to rain.
Fister easily has the most cake schedule of the four guys listed here. Grab him.
Chris Capuano (New York Mets, 2.7% owned) Matchups: ATL, FLA, @FLA, CHC, @ATL, @STL, CIN
Capuano’s ERA by month: 6.04, 3.99, 3.25, 5.23, 5.70
Capuano’s xFIP by month: 4.22, 3.79, 3.48, 4.08, 3.78
From a skills standpoint, Capuano has been pretty consistent. But the luck (namely his strand rate) has varied. All in all, Capuano has been pretty good. He’s striking guys out at an acceptable clip (7.62 K/9), showing decent control (2.72 BB/9), and has a SIERA and xFIP under 4.00.
Admittedly, the matchups against the Cardinals and Reds at the end of month are a bit scary, but the next five starts aren’t that intimidating at all. Capuano is available in almost every shallow league and likely widely available in deeper formats. Take advantage of his low ownership percentage, decent skill set, and favorable schedule.
Wade LeBlanc (San Diego Padres, 0,2% owned) Matchups: @ARI, @LAD, SF, @ARI, ARI, LAD, CHC
We’re going deep with this one. I’m talking NL-only fantasy baseball(s) deep. And to be honest, LeBlanc’s matchups aren’t spectacular. Especially considering that he has to face a decent (and contending) Arizona team three times. But it’s not the worst list of matchups ever, and he does get four more starts at Petco.
For most, LeBlanc isn’t someone that any attention need be paid to. But for those of you in NL-only leagues, LeBlanc is probably one of the only options left, if not the only option left, on a waiver wire that is likely picked clean at this point.
He was decent in over a 100 AAA innings this season with a 3.27 FIP and K/BB over 3.00. That doesn’t mean he’s going to be a ton of help, but he might marginally contribute for those of you struggling to meet the start limit in deeper leagues.
Alright, let’s rank ‘em. Just a reminder, these rankings are meant to rank expected performance from this point forward, not performance to this point.
The Top 50
1. Roy Halladay | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week: 1
2. Clayton Kershaw | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week: 2
3. Cliff Lee | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week: 3
4. Justin Verlander | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned | Last week: 4
5. Zack Greinke | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week: 11
I’ll be honest, I have no idea why it took me so long to have Greinke in the top 5 or even the top 10 for that matter. Check out his numbers:
2.36 SIERA, 10.90 K/9, 2.11 BB/9, 5.17 K/BB, .315 BABIP, 64.3% LOB%
6. CC Sabathia | New York Yankees | 100% owned | Last week: 6
7. Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week: 8
8. David Price | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned | Last week: 7
9. Felix Hernandez | Seattle Mariners | 100% owned | Last week: 9
10. James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned | Last week: 10
11. Dan Haren | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week: 12
12. Jon Lester | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned | Last week: 13
13. Matt Garza | Chicago Cubs | 98.6% owned | Last week: 15
Still can’t get over my boyfriend not being 100% owned.
14. Jered Weaver | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week: 14
15. Cole Hamels | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week: 5
Depending on what we hear on Hamels’ injury, he could be back in top 10 or out of the top 50 by next week. Hopefully, his recovery doesn’t go the way Tommy Hanson’s did.
16. Matt Cain | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week: 17
17. Anibal Sanchez | Florida Marlins |65.2% owned |Last week: 18
18. Brandon Beachy | Atlanta Braves | 99.2% owned | Last week: 19
19. Ervin Santana | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week: 25
20. Madison Bumgarner | San Francisco Giants | 96.8% owned | Last week: 20
21. Josh Beckett | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned| Last week: 21
22. Mat Latos | San Diego Padres | 100% owned | Last week: 22
23. C.J. Wilson | Texas Rangers | 100% owned | Last week: 23
24. Yovani Gallardo | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week: 24
25. Jaime Garcia | St. Louis Cardinals | 97.9% owned | Last week: 16
26. Chris Carpenter | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned | Last week: 31
27. Tim Hudson | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week: 30
28. Ian Kennedy | Arizona Diamondbacks | 100% owned | Last week: 27
29. Corey Luebke | Sand Diego Padres | 73.5% owned | Last week: 42
30. Ricky Romero | Toronto Blue Jays | 100% owned | Last week: 29
31. Daniel Hudson | Arizona Diamondbacks | 100% owned | Last week: 28
32. Roy Oswalt | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week: 37
33. Ubaldo Jimenez | Cleveland Indians | 96.0% owned | Last week: 26
34. Shaun Marcum | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week: 32
35. Justin Masterson | Cleveland Indians | 100% owned | Last week: 33
36. Hiroki Kuroda | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week: 38
37. Ted Lilly | Los Angeles Dodgers | 41.3% owned | Last week: 48
To look up the remaining six or seven starts for each guy in the top 50 would have taken me hours. This isn’t my full-time job,[1] so I didn’t devote the hours to that task. However, I did come across a pretty sweet schedule for Lilly.
Matchups: COL, SD, @WAS, @SF, PIT, SF, @ARI
I’m sure there are other guys in the top 50 who should be moved up or down based on who they face the rest of the way, but Lilly is the only one I happened to come across while looking for guys to highlight in the intro.
38. Gio Gonzalez | Oakland Athletics | 83.7% owned | Last week: 38
39. Brandon Morrow | Toronto Blue Jays | 98.0% owned | Last week: 40
40. Wandy Rodriguez | Houston Astros | 91.3% owned | Last week: 43
41. Bud Norris |Houston Astros | 36.8% owned | Last week: 34
42. Max Scherzer | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned | Last week: 36
43. Erik Bedard | Boston Red Sox | 55.6% owned | Last week: NR
44. Jeff Niemann | Tampa Bay Rays | 90.7% owned | Last week: NR
Welcome to ‘The Rubber,’ Mr. Niemann and Mr. Bedard. I wish there was some form of protection I could offer Bedard’s arm while on the rubber. And I wish there was some form of protection I could offer Niemann that would…..well, keep him from turning back into Jeff Niemann. But for now both guys are pitching well.
45. Bartolo Colon | New York Yankees | 51.4% owned | Last week: 45
46. John Danks | Chicago White Sox | 55.9% owned | Last week: 49
47. Ryan Dempster | Chicago Cubs | 67.6% owned | Last week: 50
48. Chad Billingsley | Los Angeles Dodgers | 94.5% owned | Last week: 47
49. Tim Stauffer | San Diego Padres | 31.7% owned | Last week: 44
50. Ricky Nolasco | Florida Marlins |70.1% owned | Last week: 46
Out this week: Jonathon Niese, Tommy Hanson
All ownership percentages from ESPN.com
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who is balls deep in Matt Garza in any type of league. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL
[1] My actual full-time job is really 3 hours of sitting in class four days a week and then drinking, playing video games, and watching TV the rest of the time.
(August 22, 2011 – Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images North America)
The Author
