This is my main fantasy mantra. It seems simple enough, but too often, fantasy players play the game as if they do not understand this concept. Sometimes I wonder if people understand that numbers previously accumulated by a player do not count toward their team totals after they acquire a player, whether it is via trade or the waiver wire.

Of course I do not really think fantasy players are that ignorant, but I do believe that we all can let what a player has done to date too greatly affect our perception of his value. Thankfully, some smart (and presumably geeky) people came up with “sabermetrics” (for lack of a better term). As Bill James said on a recent episode of The Colbert Report, “I started counting a lot of things that people hadn’t thought to count before.” All that “counting” has given us stats like BABIP, strand rate, FIP, and xFIP (just to name a few) which we can essentially apply as predicative statistics.

In other words, we can predict what they are going to do without looking only to what they have done.

What does this have to do with the weekly pitcher rankings? Everything and nothing.  Everything in the sense that I try to base my rankings more on what a pitcher will do going forward rather than their past performance, and nothing in the sense what has been written above has no direct ties to what will be written below.

(smooth transition)

Red Rockets
I cannot believe I am saying this, but I kind of like Homer Bailey (Cincinnati Reds, 68.4%).  Apparently, I am not the only one as Bailey was the most added player in ESPN leagues this week. Obviously Bailey is not going to be 1.89 ERA and 1.00 WHIP good, but there really is a lot to like about a 25 year-old righty.

First of all, he improved quite nicely from 2009 to 2010. His ERA only dropped seven points, but his FIP and xFIP dropped 67 and 77 points respectively. Moreover, his K/9 jumped from 6.83 to 8.26 and his BB/9 dropped from 4.13 to 3.30. Even though Bailey has only made three starts in 2011, it would seem that he is continuing to improve. His control has been excellent as his BB/9 is under 2.00, and his FIP is a stellar 2.56 (3.22 xFIP).

Bailey’s current ownership percentage of 68.4% in ten team leagues is probably about right, though it is sure to continue growing. He is not a must-own type of guy at this point, but he is a guy to add if your staff has not worked out as well as you would have hoped.

As much as I like Bailey, I actually like his teammate Travis Wood (43.7%) a little bit more.  Given his slow start and the fact that Wood was never the big name prospect that Bailey was, his ownership percentage is substantially lower. However, Wood is probably the guy I would rather have going forward.

His current ERA of 5.01 and WHIP of 1.45 are pretty ugly, but Wood has pitched better than those numbers indicate. His FIP and xFIP are each about a run and a half lower than his ERA, his strand rate is a little low, and his BABIP is fairly high at .344. The only concern I have  with Wood is that his walk rate is up slightly from last year, but it is still sitting well below three walks per nine. Plus, his K/9 is a solid 7.69.

ZIPS has him projected for a 3.71 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP from here on out. Those projections seem just about right to me. When you add them to a 7.50-ish K/9 and the possibility of a decent win total since he plays on a good team, Wood looks like a pretty solid option for the rest of 2011.

Symptom of Prolonged Activity: Burning Sensation
I have avoided warning against buying in on Josh Tomlin (Cleveland Indians, 88.4%) because it just seemed too obvious. But Tomlin has continued to ride his lucky streak all the way to that 88.4% ownership percentage. So I am finally just going to go ahead and say it: At some point, Josh Tomlin is going to burn you.

If you were going to make the case for Tomlin’s success, you would point to his improved ground ball rate (up almost 10% from last year) or his improved control (1.54 BB/9). However, those numbers in no way justify his BABIP (.178) or strand rate (86.2%) as sustainable.  Sometimes slight deviations from the mean can be sustainable, but there is nothing slight about a .178 BABIP.

Just to pile on a little, Tomlin’s value will also decline once he stops racking up wins as the Indians inevitably cool off. And, it is going to take quite a few bad starts for Tomlin’s 2.56 ERA to regress all the way to its final resting place somewhere north of four.

I would recommend you get Tomlin off your active roster before you get burned. It is understandable if you want to ride the lucky streak as long as you can, but cut ties at the first sign of trouble. If you can find a buyer for Tomlin, sell now for anything of value.

The Top 50

1. Roy Halladay | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  1
2. Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week:  2

During draft season there was some concern about Lincecum’s “down” year in 2010. It did not keep him from being the second pitcher taken in most drafts, but there was some concern nonetheless. However, Lincecum has assuaged those concerns with his performance so far this year. In fact, he has been pretty damn dominant. His ERA is a pristine 2.36 (FIP and xFIP also below 3.00), his WHIP is 1.18, and his K/9 is back over ten. His ground ball rate has also markedly improved and now sits at 53.6%. His control has been off in a couple of starts in which he has issued six walks, but it seems that Lincecum has absolutely solidified his position as baseball’s second best pitcher.

But what makes McCarthy a top 50 guy and potential ratio stud is the fact that he has posted those ratios despite a bit of bad luck. His BABIP is a touch high at .317 which means his WHIP has room to improve, and his strand rate of 62.1% is quite low. It is probably to blame for the disparity between his ERA and FIP. When the luck evens out going forward, McCarthy will see his ERA fall, potentially to 3.00 or below.

He is owned in less than ten percent of leagues, so you should be able to grab him if you need ratio help. And if you have a spot in your rotation to fill, McCarthy would be a nice choice.  Otherwise, he should be an excellent spot start option.
 

Out this week: Brandon Beachy, Clay Buchholz

All ownership percentages from ESPN.com