2011 Fantasy Baseball, THE RUBBER Week 8: Top 50 Pitcher Rankings

Alan Harrison · May 25, 2011

Cole Hamels Looking Stoic

Anyone who puts their fantasy opinion/advice out there for others to use at their discretion is kind of like someone who runs a gambling tips website. Essentially, both the fantasy baseball guy and the gambling guy are telling us what to do or simply providing us with additional information, which we can use to make a decision for ourselves.

However, there is one major difference. The gambling guy is only required to have a success rate around or above 57%. This is the case across the board, whether it be when the Business Telegraph discuss Japenese venues or any other matters. If he does that, everyone is happy and no one complains about the individual calls the gambling guy misses. But the fantasy guy is almost expected to have a 100% success rate. Thanks to internet comment sections, trolls everywhere can criticize any decision the fantasy guy gets wrong until they are blue in the face (or fingertips as it were).

I just cannot figure out why the fantasy guy is not treated more like the gambling guy. As long as the fantasy guy is getting it right more often than he is getting it wrong, then he is being useful. Given, the success rate should probably be higher than the gambling guy’s 57% mark, but it should not be anywhere close to 100%.

Instead of analyzing the results of the fantasy guy’s opinions/advice, we should analyze their logic. As the most entertaining fantasy guy, Matthew Berry, has said, “Just because a decision didn’t work out doesn’t mean it wasn’t the right move.” When the fantasy guy is getting to his opinion in a logical way, he should not be faulted any time a single piece of advice does not come true so long as he is right more often than not.

There is a lot of personal preference in fantasy baseball and a lot of different philosophies to live by. I personally prefer those who use more than just past performance with which to base their opinions. When you have a set of statistics that could be defined as ‘predicative statistics,’ why would you choose to ignore them? Those who use all the numbers, both old and new, are the guys I trust the most.

To sum all that up, I would say this: Criticize logic, not results.

Petco Protection

Tim Stauffer (San Diego Padres, 6.4% owned)
Who? Apparently I am not the only one unfamiliar with Mr. Stauffer as evidenced by his low ownership percentage. But the guy has been good. Damn good, actually. To date, Stauffer is in the top 30 among starting pitchers in WAR accumulated. And his numbers suggest he has room to improve or can at least maintain his current level of success.

A 2.73 FIP and 2.93 xFIP indicate that Stauffer may have pitched better than his 3.88 ERA would lead you to believe. His .335 BABIP means that his 1.34 WHIP may be declining sometime soon. That is, of course, assuming he can keep up the excellent control (2.02 BB/9).

Now, there are definitely roto categories where Stauffer is not going to help. For example, Stauffer has made ten starts and has zero wins in 2011 (San Diego’s offense is just embarrassing). And his current K/9 of 7.29 is respectable, but it represents the highest K mark of his career at any level.

So, Stauffer is not without roto flaws. And his continued success or improvement is predicated upon his ability to maintain his K and BB ratios, something there really is no predictive statistic for. But there are reasons to believe in Stauffer. Reasons enough that he should be receiving more ten-team mixed league consideration than a 6.4% ownership percentage, and he should be an increasingly nice option the deeper your league is.

Add him in leagues that are 12-team mixed or deeper if you need ratio help, use him as a spot start option in all formats if you have no innings or starts limits, and consider trading for him as his absolute lack of name value might allow you to get him as a bargain.

Getting Lucky? Be Careful…

Alexi Ogando (Texas Rangers, 99.1% owned)
Four weeks ago Ogando graced this little section of The Rubber where I disgrace a pitcher’s numbers. I also predicted that his good fortune would end sooner rather than later. It turns out I was wrong about the timing as Ogando has allowed only six earned runs over five starts and 34.1 innings since I last discussed the Ranger righty.

However, continued good fortune is still no sign of future success. His strand rate still stands well over 90%, his BABIP is still (just) below .200, and the difference between his ERA and his FIP is one of the three largest disparities in the league. I previously noted that Ogando’s success could only be sustained if his ability to miss bats improved drastically from 4.97 K/9. And it has improved as Ogando is striking out 7.6 batters per nine innings over his last five starts. Yet the fact remains that his astronomical strand rate and miniscule BABIP are simply unsustainable under any circumstances.

I have to admit, I did not expect Cole Hamels to crack my top ten this year. I thought he was definitely a top-20 guy, and someone I liked quite a bit, but I just did not expect him to join the elite. Although Hamels’ current ERA of 3.06 is identical to his final ERA in 2010, his 2010 number was aided by the highest strand rate among qualified pitchers. However, the 2011 number has been aided by a minimal amount of luck at most.

Hamels has also proved that the 9.00+ K/9 was not a fluke last year and has continued to improve his control (BB/9 down to 2.00). Moreover, Hamels has been inducing more ground balls and now has a ground ball rate over 50%. His FIP and xFIP are also both lower than his ERA.

If there is one concern with Hamels going forward, it would be the fear of a home run regression. His HR/FB rate is over 2% lower than his career average. However, any regression in that category should not be too significant.

I am officially worried about Lester. He should probably be ranked lower than this, but I am leaving him here out of respect for now.

Lester has never been a sub-3.00 ERA guy, but his current 3.68 mark is higher than usual. And his 1.35 WHIP is both uncommon and unsightly. The worst part is that it is not like Lester has been extremely unlucky or anything. His BABIP is right in line with his career average, and his strand rate is a fairly lucky 82.9%. His strikeouts are down, his walks are up just a touch, and he is giving up the long ball far too frequently. The home run rate should come down, but it is going to take a little more than that for Lester to be considered a top ten pitcher again.

Maybe I should be worried about what will happen to Pineda once the league sees him a time or two, but with the stuff this kid has, it might not matter too much. He has been absolutely insane to this point:

2.16 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 9.41 K/9, 2.16 BB/9

2.26 FIP, 2.98 xFIP (helped by his ballpark), 13.2% SwStr%

Sure, the.253 BABIP and 79.2% strand rate mean there is some room for regression, but a BABIP regression still would not bring his WHIP too far over 1.00, and a strand rate regression does not necessarily have to be all that significant because of Pineda’s ability to miss bats.

I could not be more disappointed about Garza’s injury. I had fallen hard for this guy in a matter of weeks. I was all in, ready to propose, ready to spend the rest of his career with this man. And I still feel that way. Unfortunately, we have had to push back the date. There is hope that it will be the minimum 15 days, but until we know for sure, I have to put my feelings on hold.

Ugh. Fine. But he is coming out as soon as he has a bad start.

Out this week: Brandon McCarthy, Jorge de la Rosa

Jorge is another guy I used to be madly in love with. Going into 2010, I thought Jorge was ready to take the next step, and I was ready to take it with him. But Jorge left me standing at the altar when he spent two months on the DL and only made 20 starts. Despite my better judgment, I decided to give Jorge one more shot this year. But yesterday Jorge let me down again in a big way. He tore his UCL and will miss the rest of the season.

Never again, Jorge. Never again.

All ownership percentages from ESPN.com

(February 21, 2011 – Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images North America)

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who is sorry to all those who made travel plans for the Talley-Garza wedding this weekend. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL

Tags: The Fantasy Fix, 2011 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Advice, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings, Brett Talley, Pitching Profile, The Rubber

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