2011 Fantasy Baseball Week 11 Sit ‘Em Start ‘Em: Gavin Floyd Gets The Nod
Gavin Floyd– This week Floyd takes the streaking White Sox to Minnesota to take on the Twins. This is an area where I get a little concerned. In his career, Floyd has a 5.27 ERA against the twins. And at Target Field his ERA balloons to a whopping 6.97. But this season the Twins have just not been the same. With most of their big bats struggling or injured the Twins career .275 average against Floyd does not bother me.
If Floyd is able to right the ship against the Twins, his second start of the week seems to be largely in his favor. Floyd has a stellar 1.17 ERA in 11 career interleague starts. This week’s interleague start is against the Diamondbacks. Diamondback starters have zero career at bats against Floyd and the players who have faced Floyd are 1 for 14 the only hit being a single.
Zach Britton– Britton has been a delightful surprise for the Orioles this season. The young southpaw has got to be one of the top contenders for AL rookie of the year at this point. This week Britton gets his second crack at the division rival Blue Jays and his first taste of interleague play against the cross town Nationals.
In his first start of the week, Britton will get to face the Blue Jays. In his only start against the Jays this year Britton went 6 inning and compiled a 9.00 ERA. Most of that damage came off a J.P. Arencibia grand slam. I do not see that happening this time around.
In his second start of the week, Britton and the O’s take on the cross town Nationals. Britton has no numbers against any National hitter but this prediction is based on the lack of offense the Nationals possess. Even if Ryan Zimmerman is back I trust Britton to get the better of the Nats. Sometimes it is hard to predict how something will go and you just have to go with your gut. My gut says play Britton and he’ll repay you.
Sit ‘Em
Bronson Arroyo – To me Bronson Arroyo is a player who is vastly overrated in fantasy baseball. There is something about coming up to the big leagues with the Red Sox that seems to do that to players. In his first start this week Arroyo faces the Dodgers. Dodger batters are hitting .267 but that includes dodger pitchers going 1 for 17 against Arroyo. The bigger Dodger bats have great numbers against Arroyo and Loney , Ethier and Kemp have all gone deep against the guitar player/ pitcher.
In his second start of the week Arroyo and the Reds head north of the boarder to take on the slugging Blue Jays. In his career Arroyo has Interleague ERA of 5.45. Against the Blue Jays, Arroyo posses a bulky 6.38 ERA. Stack that with the Jays hitters hitting a solid .333 AVG against the Frisbee hurler and this is a matchup I’d like to avoid.
Bud Norris – The strange MLB alignment leaves the Astros without an interleague game this week.
In his first start of the week, Norris gets the pesky Pirates. For their standards the Bucos are having a good start to the season. Against Norris Pirates batters are hitting a respectable .282 and are getting on base at a .341 clip. Andrew McCutchen and Garret Jones will put their history against Norris to the test and try to stay hot against the Astros righty.
In the weekend series against the Dodgers, history does not fare well for Norris. In his career, Norris has a12.46 ERA at Dodger Stadium. Another alarming stat against Norris for this start is the fact that Dodger starters are hitting whopping .435 versus Norris. The Dodgers are not an offensive machine, however, if players get on base for Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp it may be a short start for Norris.
Michael Brantley |Cleveland Indians| (82.6%) – Pitching matchups this week will favor the stronger side of Brantley’s season splits. All but one of his seven games this week will be started by a right-hander. Against righties, Brantley is hitting 60 point higher and features an OPS that is 225 points higher. All of his homeruns have come against right-handed pitchers as well. He’s also riding a small hot streak too. Over the course of the last 15 games he’s hitting .327 with a .877 OPS.
Seth Smith |Colorado Rockies| (37.5%) – Smith represents another hitter that should benefit strongly from favorable splits matchups. Smith has reaped the benefits of calling Coors Field home. All but one of his homeruns are at Coors Field and his home batting average is 46 points higher. All of Smith’s games this week will be played at Colorado. Five of his six games will come against right-handed pitching. Against righties, Smith is hitting 107 points higher and has an OPS that’s 339 points higher.
Sit ‘Em
B.J. Upton |Tampa Bay Rays| (100%) – Upton’s production has fallen off steadily over the last month. In his last 30 games, he’s hitting .177 in 79 at-bats. Six of Upton’s seven games will be played at home which spells bad news for Upton owners. Upton has the second-worst home splits out of all big leaguers with at least 75 plate appearances at home. He’s hitting .153 at home for the year.
Nelson Cruz |Texas Rangers| (100%) – Cruz has seen a revitalization since his latest trip to the DL. Look for this jump in production to taper off this week. All six of Cruz’s games are away from the hitter-friendly Ballpark in Arlington this week. Away from home Cruz’s slugging drops 160 points, cutting his homerun total in half. Five of the six opposing pitchers that he’ll face will be right-handed. Against righties, Cruz is hitting .206, 102 points lower than his lefty split. Against righties his OBP falls to an alarming .266. In 16 career at-bats against the scheduled starters, Cruz has only one hit.
Written by JJ Omar & James Bryce exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com
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