2011 Fantasy Baseball: Week 2 Sit Em Start Em, Have Faith In Shaun Marcum
Start ‘Em
Shaun Marcum, Milwaukee Brewers (100% owned) – Marcum’s debut for the Brewers was not pretty, but, few starts against the Reds are. In his second start, Marcum pitched six strong innings against the Braves allowing two earned runs while striking out four.
This week Marcum is scheduled to toe the slab against the Pirates as well as the Nationals. Marcum has no previous starts against the Bucs, but their lineup is not the caliber that the Reds or Braves are. During interleague play while with the Blue Jays he’s face the Nationals once. In his only start he’s had against the Nats Marcum is 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA and 11 K.
Many people have been on the Marcum bandwagon this season and to be honest I am not one of them but this week I believe Marcum will have the stats to justify his draft position.
Brian Duensing, Minnesota Twins (2.9% owned) – In his first start of the season Duensing was a victim of a red-hot Mark Teixeira 3-Run home run in a no decision against the Yankees. There were some positives to take from the start though. Duensing struck out seven Yankees and a WHIP of 1.14.
Duensing is matched up against the Rays in Tampa and the Royals at Target Field this week.
The Rays offense has been horrible this season, and with Evan Longoria on the DL, and Manny Ramirez surprisingly retiring Friday, it’s hard to say things will get better for the Rays. Duensing’s numbers against the Rays are solid. He possesses a 3.57 ERA with 5 K and a WHIP of 1.30 in 7.2 innings.
His career numbers against the Royals are an impressive 4-0 with a 3.33 ERA, 17 K and a 1.37 WHIP. Duensing is available in most basic leagues and could be a great spot start this week.
Other starting pitchers I will be following include Jeff Francis, Alexi Ogando and Michael Pineda.
Sit ‘Em
Tim Stauffer, San Diego Padres (4.4% owned) – Stauffer, a former first round pick, was appointed the opening day start by Padres skipper Bud Black.
Stauffer pitched well enough for his team to get the win in that game against the Cardinals even though he gave up nine hits.
In his second start of the season Stauffer didn’t make it out of the 5th inning.
What worries me about Stauffer is his WHIP at 1.88. Combine that with a visit from the Reds and I see nothing good for his owners. His second start of the week is against the Astros which isn’t a bad matchup but there are better options out there.
Chad Billingsley, Los Angeles Dodgers (100% owned) – Talk about a Jekyll and Hyde pitcher; there are times when Billingsley is unhittable and times when he can’t get anyone out.
So far this season he has a “quality start” (my least favorite stat in baseball) and an awful start (5 ER in 3 IP).
This week he gets starts against the Giants and the Cardinals. His start against the Giants led to a stat line of 6 IP, 3 ER, 4 K and a 1.00 WHIP. Not awful but this time he pitches on the road against a division rival.
His second start of the week is against a team he has struggled against historically. Against the red birds Billingsley owns a 1-3 record with a 5.79 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP.
SLUGGERS
Start ‘Em
Raul Ibanez, Philadelphia PhillieS, (94% owned) – Raul Ibanez has started off 2011 taking over where Jayson Werth left off. Look for him to continue this trend against questionable pitching this week.
His first three games of the week will be away games against the Washington Nationals making for great batting practice for Ibanez. Over the last three years Ibanez has .348 AVG, .420 OBP, 12 HR, 33 RBI with a 1.094 OPS in 141 at-bats against Washington, amazing numbers! Ibanez’s career numbers at National Park are even more astounding; eight HR and 18 RBI in only 16 games.
He hits the second team he faces this week (the Florida Marlins) almost as well. In the past three years against the Marlins, Ibanez is hitting .331, .416 OBP, .939 OPS, with five HR in 130 at-bats. Ibanez historically dominates the three Florida starters that he will face this week. Collectively against the three Ibanez is hitting .364 with seven HR in 55 career at-bats.
Alberto Callaspo, Los Angeles Angels (14.5% owned) – Callaspo has had a stellar start to the season and he could continue it against the Indians and White Sox in the coming week. April has consistently been the best month every season for him. He’s started the season off for the past three years hitting .335 with a .389 OBP and a fairly strong .892 OPS in 191 April at-bats.
Over the last three years he has hit the Sox and Indians quite well. In 256 at-bats against each team, Callaspo is hitting .286. Against the three Indians starts that he will be facing, he is hitting .350 against them for his career.
Sit ‘Em
James Loney, Los Angeles Dodgers, (81.4% owned) – It’s time to find another 1B option while Loney continues to struggle to find his rhythm. If history is any indicator he won’t be finding it soon.
Over the next week Loney will play against both the Giants in San Francisco and the Cardinals home in LA.
Loney is not even hitting the Mendoza line for his career against the three Giants starters that he will see. Loney is hitting a meager .158 through 57 career at-bats against Bumgarner, Sanchez, and Lincecum.
The news doesn’t get much better when the Cardinals come to town. Against the four projected starts for St. Louis, Loney has only six hits in 27 career at-bats, for a .222 average.
The four games against the Cardinals will be at home, further hurting his chances for any kind of rebound this week. For his career, Loney is hitting .266 at Dodgers Stadium, a whopping 40 points lower than in away games.
Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs, (84.1% owned) – Soriano’s strong opening to the season has brought back memories of his 40/40 campaigns earlier in his career. However, these dreams could crash back to reality this week against the Astros and Rockies.
The Astros rotation absolutely owns Soriano. He’s hitting .164 in 61 career at-bats (striking out in 23 of those at-bats) against the three Astros starters that he will face this week.
Over the course of the last three years Soriano has done little against a less-than-stellar Colorado rotation and has done little with the altitude advantage of Coors field. Against Colorado, Soriano is only hitting .254, with a .274 OBP through 59 at-bats.
Confining our statistical analysis to Coors Field hurts Soriano further. The high altitude might have an effect on Soriano but it’s not in his favor. Over the last three years and 28 at-bats at Coors Field, Soriano is only hitting .214 with a .207 OBP and only one HR.
Don’t board his bandwagon just yet.
• Ownership percentages taken from ESPN.com
(February 17, 2011 – Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images North America)
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