2011 Fantasy Baseball Week 8: Sit Em, Start Em & Two-Start Pitchers
Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers (100%) – I was surprised to see Gallardo’s ownership at 100%. His season totals of a 4.70 ERA and 1.48 are unattractive when pitchers like Hellickson and Ogando are owned less and impress more with their stats.
I can however, see why so many stick with Gallardo. He’s a Jekyll and Hyde, day-and-night, good cop/bad cop pitcher. In other words, when Gallardo’s good he’s amazing. But, when he’s bad, he’s a one-man fantasy team wrecking crew.
Gallardo should be able to harness his good side this week against the Nationals and Giants. Both of Gallardo’s games come at home this week. During his career, Gallardo has an ERA that is .70 lower at home and his batting average against is 26 points lower at home as well.
Both the Nationals and the Giants are two of the worst teams when it comes to hitting right-handed pitching. The Giants are ranked 22nd (.243 avg.) and the Nationals are ranked 27th (.235 avg.) overall. Coincidentally, the Giants are ranked 20th (.239 avg.) overall when hitting away and the Nationals are ranked 29th (.215 avg.) overall when hitting away.
Gallardo has been able to hold current Giants hitters to a .225 career average against, along with a .278 OBP through 89 at-bats. The National’s numbers against Gallardo are nearly identical. Through 68 career at-bats, the Nationals are hitting .221 with a .250 OBP.
Bartolo Colon, New York Yankees (23.4%) – A few weeks ago I said to get Colon off the waiver wire but wait to see how he does before starting him. Now is the time to start him. This week he faces the Jays in New York and then the Mariners in Seattle.
Jay’s hitters are hitting an anemic .227 against Colon through 44 career at-bats. Colon has also been able to keep slugger Jose Bautista in check, limiting him to just one hit in 5 at-bats and striking him out twice. The Jays lineup features only 2 left-handed hitters. Colon has feasted on righties this year, holding them to a .204 average.
Colon’s trip to Seattle should be a breeze. Seattle is the league’s worst hitting team when it comes to right-handed pitching (.216 average against). Bartolo has a 9-1 win-loss record at Safeco for his career. He’s pitched 77.2 innings at Safeco and has a 2.09 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP.
Two-Start Pitchers to Sit
Ricky Nolasco, Florida Marlins (100%) – Nolasco has benefited a lot from home field advantage this year. Unfortunately for him, both of his starts come on the road this week.
First he faces the Giants and then the Dodgers. On the road, Nolasco’s ERA is 1.78 higher (4.50 vs. 2.72). Giants hitters are hitting Nolasco to the tune of .277 average with a .327 OBP and 4 home runs in 94 at-bats. Likewise, the Dodgers are batting .286 against Nolasco with a .337 OBP through 77 at-bats.
Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies (100%) – Hamels faces a tough test this week facing the hard-hitting Reds and then facing the Mets team that scorched him earlier this year.
The Reds are the best hitting team when facing left-handed pitching this year. As a team they’re hitting an astronomical .319 with a .921 OPS. Hamels then faces the same Mets team that torched him for 6 runs in 2.2 innings earlier this year. Hamels has a career 0-3 record at Citi Field and a 4.07 ERA through 24.1 innings. Current Mets are hitting .302 with a .354 OBP against Hamels in 116 career at-bats.
Bonus: Carlos Beltran has 3 home runs and a .303 average in 33 career at-bats against Hamels. Think about starting him in this matchup.
SWATTERS
Start
CoCo Crisp, Oakland Athletics (80.1%) – CoCo Crisp is basically a two-category fantasy player. Against the two teams he’s facing next week those categories should be satisfied. His first matchup this week Crisp gets the division rival Angels. In his career Crisp is hitting .291 with 16 stolen bases. As a team the Halos are throwing out only 20% of potential base stealers well below the league average of 28%.
His next stop is in Baltimore. Defensively the Orioles are solid behind the plate when Matt Wieters is behind the plate, but awful when Jack Fox is behind the dish. It does not matter who is behind the plate Crisp will be given the green light. In his career against the Orioles Crisp is hitting .279 with a .380 OBP and 15 stolen bases. This will be an interesting matchup as Wieters is throwing out a stellar 46% of would be base stealers. I think Crisp is up to the task and would be a great pickup in a head to head league.
Orlando Cabrera, Cleveland (84.3%) – Ok so the matchups this week aren’t great, but if you want to get down to the nitty-gritty we can. Cabrera is eligible at both second base and shortstop in ESPN leagues and has numbers that are consistent with his career averages.
In the first series of the week, Cabrera is scheduled to take on the Boston Red Sox. The Sox are fighting the injury bug bag in their rotation which may benefit the Tribe in this matchup. In Cabrera’s career against his former team he is hitting .279 with 6 HR, 25 RBI, and 9 stolen bases.
Against the Rays his numbers are equally as good .280 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, and 29 stolen bases. Cabrera’s a good player and with the lack of depth at shortstop he can be a good pickup.
Sit
Colby Rasmus, St. Louis Cardinals (100%) – So far this season Rasmus has had good numbers. Next week Rasmus visits Petco Park (where hitters go to die) and Coors Field (where home runs are aplenty). The Padres are ranked 5th in the NL in ERA and some of that can be contributed to their home ballpark. This is where things look bad for Rasmus owners. In his career at Petco Park, Rasmus is only 2-15 with no extra base hits and a single RBI. Rasmus has also stuck out in five of his 15 at bats at Petco.
His career stats do not look much better at Coors Field either. Rasmus is 5-24 (.208) with only one RBI in Denver and is without a home run or a walk. To this point it is tough to know the severity of the injuries to Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman, so the Cardinals may have to rely on Rasmus’ bat. If they are both healthy look for Rasmus to ride the pine as Tony LaRussa likes to change his lineup more than any other manager in the league.
Mike Napoli, Texas Rangers (65.3%) – It’s hard to suggest to sit a player about to face a team with second worst team ERA in the AL, but that’s what I am going to do. Napoli’s numbers are absolutely awful against the Royals. In over 131 at bats, Napoli is hitting only .185. If you’d like to look at things in the half full perspective, 30% of his hits have been home runs. But I won’t look at it that way because his next opponent absolutely owns him.
The White Sox have put Napoli in the corner and have made him put on the dunce cap. In the 24 games he has started against the White Sox, Napoli is hitting .143 with one home run and seven RBI. Napoli has always been an all or nothing type of hitter, and next week he is definitely the latter.
Written by James Bryce & JJ Omar exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com
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(May 6, 2011 – Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images North America)
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