Carl Pavano | Minnesota Twins | (25.6%)– The longtime veteran has only given up 1 run in his last 16 innings. The weak lineups and strong history for Carl Pavano are further evidence that should compel fantasy owners to start him this week. 

The entire Baltimore lineup is only hitting .244 with an OBP of .279 in a whopping 127 career at-bats. In the 55.2 innings that Pavano has pitched against the Orioles in his career, he has kept a solid 2.75 ERA. His second opponent of the week will be the Indians. Pavano has held the Indians batters to a .260 average in the 123 at-bats they have against him. In those 123 at-bats, Pavano has only allowed 11 extra-base hits, a ratio that should shrink even more with the black hole of Target Field supporting him this weekend.

John Lackey | Boston Red Sox | (38.8%) – John Lackey has had as miserable start to a season as anyone that comes to recent memory. However, if he hasn’t burned too many bridges with your team in the past, look for him to get you some cheap quality starts this week. 

First, he pitches against the A’s in the pitcher-favorite Oakland Coliseum. His career numbers there are pretty impressive. In 16 starts, Lackey has an 8-4 win-loss record, a 2.92 ERA, and a 1.10 WHIP. In 228 career at-bats, the Oakland lineup is only hitting a .250 average. The next opponent for Lackey this week is his old team, the Angels. Look for Lackey to get redemption against his old employer. Against the 2, 3, 4, and 5 hitters of the Angels (Kendrick, Abreu, Hunter, and Wells), Lackey has kept them to a .229 average in 118 at-bats, limiting them to only 10 extra-base hits in those at-bats, striking them out 26 times.

Two-Start Pitchers to Sit 

Ricky Romero | Toronto Blue Jays | (100%) – Ricky Romero has been off to a great start this year, truly living up to his potential as a front of the rotation starter. This week could be a hiccup for his strong start to the season. Romero will be facing the Red Sox first in Boston and then he’ll face the Rays at home in Toronto. 

Romero’s numbers against the Red Sox will scare even the most veteran of fantasy owners. In 43 innings, Romero has a 7.42 ERA and has a 2-4 record. Red Sox batters are hitting .346 against him. The heart of the Red Sox lineup has been doing the most damage. A-Gon, David Ortiz, Youkilis, Ellsbury and Pedroia combine for a .521 average in 48 at-bats, while hitting 4 HRs and collecting 17 RBIs. Romero’s career numbers against the Rays aren’t nearly as bad, but still warrant concern from fantasy owners. Over his career Romero sports a 4.45 ERA over 32 innings against the Rays. Also, lefties are hitting 35 points higher than righties against Romero. The majority of the Rays lineup consists of left-handed hitters.

Jonathan Sanchez | San Francisco Giants | (100%) – This week’s matchups for Jonathan Sanchez pose a couple of historical threats against his strong start to the season. 

His first start comes in the HR machine of Coors Field. His career numbers at Coors Field include a 5.26 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP in 37.2 innings. Tulowitzki is on a tear and should continue his streak against Sanchez whom he’s hitting .412 against in 17 career at-bats against. Sanchez won’t be able to seek any shelter in his next start at home against the Braves. The starting lineup has 48 at-bats against Sanchez in which they are hitting .333 with a .411 OBP, and a .973 OPS. Historically, in 27 innings against the Braves, Sanchez has a 6.00 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP and 3 losses in 5 starts.

Hitters to Start 

Travis Hafner | Cleveland Indians | (11%) – Hafner was once a fantasy stud, providing a ton of power. Injuries have hampered Hafner since the 2007 season. Healthy, and flying well below the radar, Hafner is having a decent season so far. 

With a 1-2 performance on Friday, Pronk’s season average is up to .292 with 3 homers and 8 RBI.What makes him a player you should start this week are his number verses the Indians opponents next week. Against the Kansas City Royals, Hafner has career numbers of .294 AVG, 17 HR’s , and 63 RBI. His power numbers are even better against the Twins. Against Minnesota, Hafner is hitting .293 with 23 HR’s and 67 RBI. Expect a good week from Hafner even though he’s heading to Target Field.

Aaron Hill | Toronto Blue Jays | (97%)– Hill has good numbers against his division rivals and with the Rays and the Red Sox pitching staffs struggling; I see no reason not to start Hill. 

Against the Red Sox, is hitting a modest .275 with 7 home runs, 36 runs batted in and 3 stolen bases. Not to mention Hill gets a crack at Dice-K who looks like he is throwing batting practice out there. Look for Hill to try some stolen bases against the Red Sox as they have a hard time throwing out base stealers. Against the Rays Hill is hitting .287 with 13 homers and 37 runs batted in. Since the retirement of Manny, the Rays offense has been playing better baseball, but the pitching is still a bit suspect.

Hitter to Sit 

Stephen Drew | Arizona Diamondbacks | (100%) – It isn’t often one would want to sit someone who is about to play at the Great American Ballpark but that’s what I believe Drew owners should do. 

Against the Reds, Drew is hitting a mere .232 with one home run and seven RBI. Then Drew travels to Citi Field where hitters go to die. In five career games at Citi Field, Drew is hitting .217 with a home run and two RBI. Another thing that hurts Drew’s value is the play of Willie Bloomquist. Coming off injury, I don’t think manager Kirk Gibson is going to push Drew too much.

Nyjer Morgan | Milwaukee Brewers | (11%) –  A lot of this pick isn’t Morgan’s fault as he’s had a good start to the season (.473 AVG). This pick is a combination of things. With Mark Kotsay getting the starting job while Corey Heart is out, and Corey Heart going out on rehab assignment this weekend it is hard to see where Morgan fits in Brewers plans. 

Personally I think he is a better player than Carlos Gomez, but the Brewers seem to want to start Gomez. So although I think the move to the Brewers would’ve improved Morgan’s numbers, the lack of playing time limits his fantasy value. Keep an eye on Morgan though, as the Brewers may grow frustrated with Gomez.

• Ownership percentages taken from ESPN.com

Written by James Bryce & JJ Omar exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com

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(February 26, 2011 – Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images North America)


Tags: 2011 Fantasy Baseball, Sit Em Start Em, Week 3, Lineup Tools, Two Start Pitchers, Carl Pavano, Ricky Romero, John Lackey, Jonathan Sanchez, Travis Hafner, Aaron Hill, Stephen Drew, Njyer Morgan, Fantasy Baseball Tips, Fantasy Baseball Advice