Fantasy Football

2011 Fantasy Football: Big Signings & What They Mean For Your Fantasy Team

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Nnamdi Asomugha (see credits below)

Everyone knew it would be a wild few days when the lockout ended and free agents had a short window to sign before training camp, and that certainly happened…but how much will fantasy football be affected by all the quick changes?

Not as much as you may think. 

I think this year we will find that the biggest sleepers will be guys who remained on the same team and took advantage of opportunities that came up when others left. It's hard to imagine that a high percentage of quarterbacks, running backs, and receivers who did not find a new home until the last week of July will be ready to live up to their potential in the first week of September. 

So while the big names on the move are getting a lot of attention this week, I don’t think the majority of them will exceed their past fantasy value right away.

I think this will be a theme throughout the fantasy football season and particularly in the opening weeks of the season. Veterans and rookies will get off to slow starts as they adjust to a new offense and fantasy owners will be asking as soon as week one whether or not they need to worry that their top draft picks or biggest bids in an auction were worth the price, or whether the change of scenery will take too long for them to become a top option in fantasy. 

Here’s some of the old faces in new places who could face those scenarios:

Nnamdi Asomugha, CB, Philadelphia, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Philadelphia: 
The back-to-back pickups make the Eagles the new team that will make you think twice as to whether or not you want to start anything less than an elite quarterback against them. If you've got Manning, Brady, Brees or another top-10 quarterback, you are playing him against everyone, but anything less and you may want to bench your starter against Philly, especially if you have a decent backup. 

The Jets have Revis Island and that has been the defense that scared fantasy owners the most in the past, but Philly did better than an island by creating bookends of Pro Bowl cornerbacks that will make it tough for quarterbacks. Remember that Eli Manning and Tony Romo will both face the Eagles twice. 

In IDP leagues, both guys benefit from their new partnership. Asomugha has totalled only three interceptions in the past four years as teams have looked away from him, but Rodgers-Cromartie's presence means a few more balls will come Nnamdi's way. Rodgers-Cromartie has 13 interceptions in his three seasons and those numbers will also rise as he sees an increase in balls thrown toward him. 

Kevin Kolb, QB, Arizona: 
There's a lot of hype behind the Cardinals pick up of Kolb as a fantasy star, but he's certainly not a top-10 quarterback yet and probably closer to top 20 than even top 15. 

The obvious stat is that Kolb has thrown 11 touchdowns in 19 career games, but those numbers can be skewed because he was a back-up for much of that time. However, last year he was Philadelphia's primary quarterback in five games and attempted 29 or more passes in each of them. He threw more than one touchdown only once in those five games. And the thought that Kolb can step in and repeat the 27 touchdown passes per year that Kurt Warner tossed for Arizona from 2007-09 overlooks the fact that not only did Anquan Boldin leave last year, but Steve Breaston departed for Kansas City this season leaving Larry Fitzgerald without a top-notch receiver on the other side. That said, Kolb's arrival does push Fitzgerald back up into the top five where he was while averaging double-digit touchdowns each year with Warner, but don't expect Kolb's status to make a similar rise this season. 

Sidney Rice, WR, Seattle and Tavaris Jackson, QB, Seattle: 
We'll combine the two here because they followed each other from Minnesota to Seattle and their fortunes will depend largely on each other. That alone is one reason why Rice's value won't climb as high as it could on my preseason rankings because I don't see Jackson as the answer for Seattle at quarterback. 

Sure, Sidney and Tavaris played and practiced for the last four years in Minnesota and that familiarity has to count for something, but during Rice's only significant fantasy season of 2009 it was not Jackson throwing him the ball. And I'm not sure Jackson will be throwing it this year either because he should have to battle Charlie Whitehurst for the starting spot, and with two unproven guys going up against each other, the guy with one year of experience in the offense may get the nod. 

Seattle invested a lot in Rice and there is no doubt he will be the focus of the passing game. I think he is a No. 2 fantasy receiver regardless of the quarterback, but needs a better thrower to be your top guy. 

Donovan McNabb, QB, Minnesota: 
Call me crazy, but I think this has a chance to work…for the Vikings, not fantasy owners. 

After seemingly being disrespected first by the Eagles, who traded him within the division, and then by the Redskins, who benched him for Rex Grossman, I think at age 34, McNabb still has the talent and motivation to win in the NFL. 

Minnesota gives him a chance with a good team and a great running back in Adrian Peterson. McNabb won't have to throw as much he has in the past few years and I think that will mean more wins while his statistics will fall even further. McNabb has not thrown more than 20 touchdown passes in four of the past six seasons and his high during that span is 23. 

The big winner of the McNabb signing is receiver Percy Harvin, who could become the top target and has the speed to find the end zone for a handful of times from long distance given the opportunity. Sounds kind of like DeSean Jackson during McNabb's final year in Philadelphia. 

Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Tennessee: 
This is sort of ho-hum to me. If you liked Hasselbeck in Seattle, you will like him in Tennessee and if you didn't like him before, I don't think this change does much for him. 

He's a solid fill-in on a bye week, but Hasselbeck hasn't thrown more than 17 touchdowns in any of the past three seasons. I don't think his receiving corps is upgraded much in Tennessee especially if Kenny Britt's latest offseason troubles force him to miss some games and leave Nate Washington or Justin Gage as Hasselbeck's top target. Plus, Chris Johnson will require a few more handoffs than Julius Jones or Justin Forsett did in Seattle. 

Reggie Bush, RB, Miami: 
I've never taken Reggie Bush in a fantasy draft before, but that could change this year. Even if he is not the featured back carrying the ball 20 times per game, I think he will be a main option in both the running game and passing game for the Dolphins, and I think the increase in touches will result in some excitement for his owners. Even better, I do expect him to get between 15-20 carries per game with Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown likely out of the way. 

I think Bush has more talent than he showed in New Orleans, and I also think he feels like he should be a star and this is his opportunity to do it. He’s faced plenty of criticism for being only a third-down back after being selected No. 2 overall, he continues to take hits for all his USC and Heisman Trophy controversies, and I think those further fuel him toward a career year this season. Maybe 1,600 yards and 13 touchdowns combined rushing and receiving?

Chad Ochocinco, WR, New England: 
I like it, but like McNabb, more for the football team than the fantasy owner. I don't think his yardage takes a big boost over the last couple of seasons, but his touchdowns will. 

This isn't Randy Moss arriving in New England 2007 and posting 1,500 yards and 23 touchdowns like some are saying. Moss was 30 that season, Ochocinco is 33. He never was the deep threat that Moss is and Ochocinco certainly isn't that now, but I do think he will exceed the 65 catches he has averaged over the past three seasons and I think he presents a favorable target in the end zone for Tom Brady, so he could reach double-digit touchdowns for the first time since 2003. 

Written by Steve Mims exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. 

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(September 18, 2010 – Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images North America)


Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football Advice, Monday Night Football, Training Camp, Football Rankings, Week 1, Preseason Football, Trade Impact, Football Trades, Nnamdi Asomugha, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Kevin Kolb, Sidney Rice, Tavaris Jackson, Donovan McNabb, Matt Hasselbeck, Reggie Bush, Chad Ochocinco
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