2011 Fantasy Football MarketWatch Week 2: Buy Low on Mark Ingram & LeGarrette Blount
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense was the first defense taken in almost every draft and was also one of only three defenses to record negative points in Week 1.
Just in case you weren’t aware, or in case you’ve never played fantasy football before, there is a fair amount of unpredictability involved. The game really does operate as a market like the housing market or the stock market would. The only difference is that players are the commodities and this particular market means absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of life. If you were planning on getting into the stock market as well, you can always look at Aktien App Testsieger then onto your fantasy football, you don’t have to limit yourself.
Now that I’ve officially made a reference to the title of this article while stating the obvious connection between the stock market and fantasy football, let’s get to some useful information that can help you manage the unpredictability that is fantasy football.
It’s only when the tide goes out that you learn who’s been swimming naked. – Warren Buffet
Arizona’s secondary is poised to be as bad as Houston’s was last season. Cam Newton is still a rookie quarterback. And Steve Smith is 32. Add all that up and it looks like the tide is pretty high in Carolina (not meant to be an insensitive Hurricane Irene joke).
Smith also has big time name value, and his big time performance this week has created the perfect storm to sell high on the diminutive receiver.
The only receiver other than Smith to score more than 25 points in week 1 was
Wes Welker. There are a lot more good days ahead for Welker than there are for Smith, but Welker is no longer a 100+ catch receiver. There are too many options in New England which is going to make Welker hit or miss.You may not be able to upgrade enough from Welker to warrant trading him away, but an opportunity to see what you can get has definitely presented itself. Ask around and see if anything makes sense.
The best way to make money is to buy low.
Not nearly as cool of a market adage as that last Buffet quote, but the points are equally valid.
A lot of a fantasy player’s value is derived from opportunity rather than skill. Too often people will give up on a player when it appears they don’t have the skill even though the opportunity is still there.
It’s difficult to say whether
Mark Ingram has the skill at this point, but he appears to have the opportunity. Ingram carried the ball 13 times this week to Pierre Thomas’ six and Darren Sproles’ two. Moreover, New Orleans got behind five minutes into the game and trailed the rest of the way meaning the Saints didn’t run the ball nearly as much as they will on average.Likewise, Tampa Bay trailed Detroit for more than half of their contest which was part of the reason
LeGarrette Blount had only five carries. It’s certainly a concern that Earnest Graham got six carries and caught eight passes for 58 yards[1], but Blount is a much younger back who rushed for 1,000 yards in just 200 carries last year.Because Blount has some sort of track record while Ingram is just a rookie, Ingram may be easier to acquire and will definitely cost less. However, both may be able to be had. In fact, the two receivers mentioned in the previous section would be guys I would give up to obtain these young backs. Smith for Ingram and Welker for Blount would both be deals I’d make that might be accepted.
The trend is your friend.
It was pretty big week for QB’s, and Rex Grossman got in on the action. With 300 yards and two TD’s, Grossman turned in his third 15+ point fantasy game in his last four starts (dating back to last year). While it’s true that the Redskins faced an injury-plagued Giants secondary in week 1, they face the aforementioned dismal secondary of Arizona in week 2.
Grossman is owned in less than 5% of ESPN.com leagues prior to the first round of waivers. For those of you who own
Matt Ryan, you might consider adding Grossman and going with him this week as Ryan will face the much ballyhooed Philadelphia secondary.Caveat emptor (buyer beware)Early Doucet and Randall Cobb are likely to be two of the biggest ownership percentage gainers this week, but don’t blow your spot in the waiver line or too much of your FAAB on these guys.
Doucet caught three balls for 105 yards and a score but was only targeted those three times. The Arizona wideout has had trouble staying healthy in the past and has never had 300 yards receiving in a season. Smells like a fluke.
Cobb caught a touchdown pass and returned a kickoff for a score, but he’s the fifth receiving option in Green Bay at best. The opportunity just isn’t there for Cobb to be a legitimate fantasy option.
Sell to the sleeping point.
It’s amazing how many common stock market sayings you can get with a quick Google search. This one just means that if you’re troubled by an investment but still want to hang on to it, sell to the point where you can sleep calmly at night.
To put that in fantasy football terms, if you own a player that you constantly consider dropping but never can bring yourself to cut ties with, only pull the trigger and let him hit the waiver wire if you’re not going to question your decision as you fall asleep that night.
That being said, I would second guess myself if I dropped
Malcolm Floyd or Michael Bush this week.Darren McFadden got more than twice the carries Bush did this week and was more than twice as effective with those carries, but Bush is a decent back (career 4.4 YPC) who doesn’t have a lot of miles on him yet (only 385 career carries). Moreover, it would be a surprise to see McFadden play all 16 games this year. In the three games McFadden missed last season, Bush topped 100 yards twice.
In San Diego, tight ends and running backs are going to see their fair share of targets, but Floyd is still the second receiver on a team with a potential MVP quarterback. Floyd was targeted eight times this week and is likely to put up more than three catches for 45 yards the next time he is targeted that often.
The path of least resistance is down.
Age is a bitch.
Chad Ochocinco is 33. Thomas Jones is also 33.
The bad news doesn’t end there for the used-to-be-superstars.
Per Mike Clay of ProFootballFocus.com, the Patriots used a two-TE set on 59% of snaps and a three-TE set on 18% of snaps on Monday night. Because Ocho is the third receiver behind Welker and
Deion Branch that means over three-fourths of the plays New England ran didn’t call for him to be on the field.Ochocinco was a popular sleeper and rebound candidate this preseason, but his declining skill set and lack of opportunity means this is more likely his last season in the league than it is his renaissance.
Jones has now carried the ball over 2,500 times in his NFL career and now trails a top five back in
Jamaal Charles and an exciting young back in Dexter McCluster on the depth chart. Todd Haley kept Jones relevant last year, but there’s a pretty good chance this is the end of the line.[1] Graham is an interesting pickup in PPR leagues and even worth a look in non-PPR leagues deeper than ten teams.
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who didn’t think you needed to be told to add Ben Tate or Cadillac Williams if you’re looking for RB help. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.
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