2011 Fantasy Football, Week 10 Sit ‘Em Start ‘Em: Ben Tate A Solid Play Against Bucs?
In the five games where Tate has 12 or more carries, he has averaged 12.6 fantasy points and hasn’t had fewer than eight points in any of those games. Against a Tampa Bay team that has allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing running backs and who is without DT Gerald McCoy, the Texans figure to run the ball a lot. Tate should get at least 12 carries and should record double digit fantasy points.
RB Sit: Rashard Mendenhall (Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 10: @ Cincinnati)
Cincinnati appears to have an excellent pass defense. But, as I pointed out in my MarketWatch article this week, it only appears that way because they have yet to face a quarterback who ranks top 12 in passing yards. This week they face Big Ben Roethlisberger who is 3rd in passing yards this season. This is the week the Bengals pass D is exposed for the middle-of-the-pack unit that it really is.
On the other hand, the Bengals run D has allowed the fifth fewest rushing yards despite facing backs like Willis McGahee, Frank Gore, Fred Jackson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson, and a healthy Peyton Hillis. This is the true strength of the Bengals defense.
Mendenhall has single digit fantasy points in five games this season and has topped 70 rushing yards in only one game. Pittsburgh is a throw-first team at this point, and that pass-happy approach figures to be more successful against this particular defense.
WR Start: Denarius Moore (Oakland Raiders, Week 10: @ San Diego)
Just kidding.
WR Start: Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 10: @ Cincinnati)
We’ve already covered the fact that Cincy’s pass defense is overrated. Brown is 7th in the league in targets, the most targeted receiver on his team, and he has three straight weeks of double digit fantasy points. So why wouldn’t he be an automatic start against an overrated pass defense?
WR Sit: Jordy Nelson (Green Bay Packers, Week 10: Minnesota)
Nelson has five touchdowns but only 29 receptions. That’s basically one TD catch every six receptions. It’s certainly possible that he keeps that rate up, but such low usage plus a lot of scores just screams regression. This is a great matchup for Green Bay’s epic pass machine, so maybe this isn’t the week regression kicks in for Jordy. But, to be honest, I don’t know who else to tell you to sit at this position.
QB Start: Tim Tebow (Denver Broncos, Week 10: @ Kansas City)
A few points here, a few points there, and before you know it Tebow has 20+ fantasy points on the day. He averages just over that 20 point number in the 3.5 halves where he has been the starter. Unless the matchup is just brutal, Tebow is a must start. Kansas City is only 17th best against the QB, and they’ve faced a pretty easy slate of opposing QBs. They’re not nearly good enough to warrant leaving Tebow on the bench.
QB Sit: Matt Schaub (Houston Texans, Week 10: @ Tampa Bay)
Schaub is a “QB Sit” regular at this point.
He’s currently 9th among QBs in fantasy points, but he’s the only one of the top ten to have three games with single digit fantasy points. The suckitude of Tampa’s run defense has already been discussed, so we can expect Houston to run, run, and run some more. The Texans will likely lead most of this game, so they can run even more still. Andre Johnson is still out as well, and how can you feel good about starting a QB whose best receiver is Kevin Walter?
TE Start: Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit Lions, Week 10: @ Chicago)
(insert TE facing Chicago here)
From ESPN’s blurb on Pettigrew this week: (The Bears) have allowed the most targets (80), catches (54), touchdowns (6) and ESPN standard fantasy points (86) to (tight ends).
TE Sit: Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers, Week 10: New York Giants)
Vernon Davis has fewer targets than Fred Davis has catches. 33 tight ends have more red zone targets than Vernon. For whatever reason, he just doesn’t seem to be a big part of San Fran’s offense. The Giants have allowed five or fewer fantasy points to opposing tight ends six times. Admittedly, they’ve faced some pretty weak tight ends, but at this point Vernon Davis isn’t a strong TE option. Expect the Giants to continue shutting down tight ends they should shut down.
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who wishes there was a real life equivalent of “Suck for Luck.” You can tell him that sounded gay and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.
(October 22, 2011 – Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images North America)
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