2011 Fantasy Football, Week 14 Sit Em/Start Em: Michael Crabtree Gets The Playoff Nod
Michael Crabtree
QB Start: Rex Grossman (Washington Redskins, Week 14: New England)
This is purely a matchup call. New England has given up at least 14 fantasy points to every quarterback they’ve faced not named Tyler Palko. That includes Chad Henne, Jason Campbell, Mark Sanchez (twice), Vince Young, and the great Dan Orlovsky.
QB Sit: Tim Tebow (Denver Broncos, Week 14: Chicago Bears)
Although squarely in the pro-Tebow camp for reasons unknown to even myself, I can’t help but shying away from playing Tebow this week. First of all, his interception rate is basically half of one percent. League average is just under three percent, and there’s just no way he can avoid throwing picks forever. Also, this game figures to be a tight, low scoring affair. Lots of it should be played in between the 20’s with lots of handoffs keeping the clock rolling. The number of plays each team runs will likely be well below their season average.
Forgive me Father; I know not what I do.
RB Start: Pierre Thomas (New Orleans Saints, Week 14: @ Tennessee)
Pierre Thomas is pretty good at football. You wouldn’t know it from the usage pattern of Sean Payton’s backfield, but he is. He averages just under five yards per carry for his career, and he’s averaging right at five yards per carry in 82 attempts this year. With Mark Ingram out, Thomas should pick up a few more carries. Although Chris Ivory might get 15 carries like he did in week 9 when Ingram was out. But, like I said, Thomas is a good football player who also has a chance to prove it this week.
RB Sit: LeGarrette Blount (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 14: @Jacksonville)
How can you start Blount this week after he mustered just 19 yards on 11 carries last week in the choicest of choice matchups against Carolina? He’ll face the Jags on Sunday whose run D has had great games (held Houston to under 100 yards rushing) and awful games (gave up 115 yards to Chris Ogbonnaya). There’s just too much risk associated with Blount to be using him in the fantasy playoffs.
BONUS FLEX PLAY: Brandon Saine (Green Bay Packers, Week 14: Oakland)
With James Starks out, there’s potentially an opportunity for someone else to take advantage of a nice matchup against the Raiders. Ryan Grant has done nothing to show he’s any good, so why not Brandon Saine getting a little play this week? Per ProFootballFocus.com, he got 11 looks on just 21 snaps last week, and he’s been targeted seven times in the last two games. Saine is probably more interesting as a flex in a PPR league, but if you’re desperate, there’s upside here.
WR Start: Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers, Week 14: @ Arizona)
Prior to last week, Crabtree and Antonio Brown were the only receivers with over 500 yards, 70 targets, and 40 receptions and just one touchdown. Both had big weeks and Crabtree cashed in on some of that inevitable positive regression with a touchdown while adding another 96 yards. Now, Crabtree, Brown, and Reggie Wayne are the only three receivers with 600+ yards, 45+ receptions and 75+ targets that don’t have at least three touchdowns. So there’s more positive regression in store for Crabtree, and he faces the Cardinals who allow the 8th most fantasy points to wide receivers.
WR Sit: Miles Austin (Dallas Cowboys, Week 14: New York Giants)
Like Blount, there’s simply too much risk associated with starting Austin in the fantasy playoffs. Who knows how healthy he really is and if he’ll be able to play a full complement of snaps. And with Laurent Robinson having filled in more-than-adequately, who knows how targets will be distributed with Austin, Robinson, and Dez Bryant all in the lineup. If you’re in a two week playoff matchup or looking for an upside play, Austin might not be a bad play, but, for me, there’s just too much risk in playing him.
TE Start: Dustin Keller (New York Jets, Week 14: Kansas City)
From my favorite fantasy football Twitter account to follow, @PFF_MikeClay: Tight Ends are enjoying a 14.1 YPR and 17% TD rate against the Chiefs this year. Most generous to TEs in both categories.
That’s a good enough reason to start a borderline top ten TE if you ask me.
TE Sit: Jermaine Gresham (Cincinnati Bengals, Week 14: Houston Texans)
Gresham will probably get his usual four or five catches, but, against a Texans team that allows the third fewest fantasy points to tight ends, they’re not likely to result in a lot of yardage or a touchdown.
BONUS D/ST PLAY: Arizona Cardinals D/ST (Week 14: San Francisco 49ers)
Arizona’s D has been playing well lately as they’ve averaged just shy of ten fantasy points in their last six games. They face a San Francisco team whose strength isn’t exactly offense and whose quarterback, Alex Smith, is due for some serious regression in the interception department (1.5% INT%). They’re available in over 95% of leagues.
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas saying “Bless me Father for I have sinned. It has been almost a year since I last exhibited disbelief in Tim Tebow.” You can recommend he do five Hail Marys and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.
This is purely a matchup call. New England has given up at least 14 fantasy points to every quarterback they’ve faced not named Tyler Palko. That includes Chad Henne, Jason Campbell, Mark Sanchez (twice), Vince Young, and the great Dan Orlovsky.
QB Sit: Tim Tebow (Denver Broncos, Week 14: Chicago Bears)
Although squarely in the pro-Tebow camp for reasons unknown to even myself, I can’t help but shying away from playing Tebow this week. First of all, his interception rate is basically half of one percent. League average is just under three percent, and there’s just no way he can avoid throwing picks forever. Also, this game figures to be a tight, low scoring affair. Lots of it should be played in between the 20’s with lots of handoffs keeping the clock rolling. The number of plays each team runs will likely be well below their season average.
Forgive me Father; I know not what I do.
RB Start: Pierre Thomas (New Orleans Saints, Week 14: @ Tennessee)
Pierre Thomas is pretty good at football. You wouldn’t know it from the usage pattern of Sean Payton’s backfield, but he is. He averages just under five yards per carry for his career, and he’s averaging right at five yards per carry in 82 attempts this year. With Mark Ingram out, Thomas should pick up a few more carries. Although Chris Ivory might get 15 carries like he did in week 9 when Ingram was out. But, like I said, Thomas is a good football player who also has a chance to prove it this week.
RB Sit: LeGarrette Blount (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 14: @Jacksonville)
How can you start Blount this week after he mustered just 19 yards on 11 carries last week in the choicest of choice matchups against Carolina? He’ll face the Jags on Sunday whose run D has had great games (held Houston to under 100 yards rushing) and awful games (gave up 115 yards to Chris Ogbonnaya). There’s just too much risk associated with Blount to be using him in the fantasy playoffs.
BONUS FLEX PLAY: Brandon Saine (Green Bay Packers, Week 14: Oakland)
With James Starks out, there’s potentially an opportunity for someone else to take advantage of a nice matchup against the Raiders. Ryan Grant has done nothing to show he’s any good, so why not Brandon Saine getting a little play this week? Per ProFootballFocus.com, he got 11 looks on just 21 snaps last week, and he’s been targeted seven times in the last two games. Saine is probably more interesting as a flex in a PPR league, but if you’re desperate, there’s upside here.
WR Start: Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers, Week 14: @ Arizona)
Prior to last week, Crabtree and Antonio Brown were the only receivers with over 500 yards, 70 targets, and 40 receptions and just one touchdown. Both had big weeks and Crabtree cashed in on some of that inevitable positive regression with a touchdown while adding another 96 yards. Now, Crabtree, Brown, and Reggie Wayne are the only three receivers with 600+ yards, 45+ receptions and 75+ targets that don’t have at least three touchdowns. So there’s more positive regression in store for Crabtree, and he faces the Cardinals who allow the 8th most fantasy points to wide receivers.
WR Sit: Miles Austin (Dallas Cowboys, Week 14: New York Giants)
Like Blount, there’s simply too much risk associated with starting Austin in the fantasy playoffs. Who knows how healthy he really is and if he’ll be able to play a full complement of snaps. And with Laurent Robinson having filled in more-than-adequately, who knows how targets will be distributed with Austin, Robinson, and Dez Bryant all in the lineup. If you’re in a two week playoff matchup or looking for an upside play, Austin might not be a bad play, but, for me, there’s just too much risk in playing him.
TE Start: Dustin Keller (New York Jets, Week 14: Kansas City)
From my favorite fantasy football Twitter account to follow, @PFF_MikeClay: Tight Ends are enjoying a 14.1 YPR and 17% TD rate against the Chiefs this year. Most generous to TEs in both categories.
That’s a good enough reason to start a borderline top ten TE if you ask me.
TE Sit: Jermaine Gresham (Cincinnati Bengals, Week 14: Houston Texans)
Gresham will probably get his usual four or five catches, but, against a Texans team that allows the third fewest fantasy points to tight ends, they’re not likely to result in a lot of yardage or a touchdown.
BONUS D/ST PLAY: Arizona Cardinals D/ST (Week 14: San Francisco 49ers)
Arizona’s D has been playing well lately as they’ve averaged just shy of ten fantasy points in their last six games. They face a San Francisco team whose strength isn’t exactly offense and whose quarterback, Alex Smith, is due for some serious regression in the interception department (1.5% INT%). They’re available in over 95% of leagues.
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas saying “Bless me Father for I have sinned. It has been almost a year since I last exhibited disbelief in Tim Tebow.” You can recommend he do five Hail Marys and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.
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