The matchup is not as scary as it looks.

In six games against Romo, Tebow, Brady, and Fitzpatrick, the Jets have given up an average of 17.5 fantasy points to QBs.  Their success in the “QB fantasy points against” category has been bolstered by the complete throttling of lesser competition.  But the only top ten QB they’ve really handled has been…

If you haven’t noticed, his struggles appear to be over.  He’s averaging almost 18 fantasy points per game over his last six, and he hasn’t thrown a pick since week 11 (inevitable positive regression).  And his matchup is not as scary as it looks either.  Sure, the Ravens have given up the fewest fantasy points to QBs, but they’ve only faced one QB in the top ten of passing yards (Roethlisberger).  They’re good, but they’re probably not the best.

Admittedly, I no longer thought Grant was capable of being a relevant fantasy football player.  But his 85 yards and two touchdowns against the pathetic Oakland defense proved he can still take advantage of a good matchup.  He gets another good matchup to exploit this week against a Chiefs team that has allowed the fifth most points to opposing RBs and who has been especially porous in the last five weeks allowing 781 rushing yards and five rushing TDs.

In the six games where Tate has received at least 12 carries, he has averaged 12.5 fantasy points and never had fewer than eight.  While he hasn’t had 12+ carries in any of Houston’s last three games, he should see at least that many against Carolina, one of the two decidedly worst run defenses in the league, and should get double digit fantasy points as a result.

Kyle Orton lost his job in Denver because of the Mile High Messiah, but now Orton is the savior for Dwayne Bowe owners.  Ever since Tyler Palko took over for the injured Matt Cassel, you couldn’t risk having Bowe in your lineup.  With Orton under center, Bowe may finally be useable again.  Especially against a Green Bay secondary that hemorrhages fantasy points to wide receivers.

Moss saw 11 targets and recorded 14 fantasy points last week against the defense that allows the most fantasy points to receivers.  This week he faces the defense that allows the second most fantasy points to receivers.  He’s an absolute must start.

Williams had a run of consecutive solid performances halted at three games last week by a Jacksonville team that has only allowed more than one pass TD in a game once since week 5 and who has allowed less than 200 yards through the air in 9 of 13 games.  This week Williams will face a Cowboys secondary that is not nearly as good as Jacksonville’s. 

Terence Newman looks so little like his former self that my dad has taken to calling him Clarence.  My dad is doing that mainly because he’s old (not unlike Terence/Clarence), but his old and tired mind may just be subconsciously pointing out Newman’s rapidly declining skills.

Outside of the top four guys, you’re probably not getting enough yardage out of your tight end to make him an automatic start.  It’s all about who can find their way into the end zone at that position.  Ballard has been targeted in the end zone twelve times this season (four TDs) and faces the Redskins who are second worst against the tight end.  That combination of factors gives Ballard a better shot of scoring this week than most other tight ends.

In the three games started by Caleb Hanie, the Bears have given up an average of 12.5 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses.  On the year, only one team (the Rams) has allowed more fantasy points to opposing defenses on average.  The Seahawks D also happens to be 9th among defenses in fantasy points scored this year.  So I have absolutely no idea why all of ESPN’s big four rankers have Seattle’s D ranked outside their top ten.

With Ben’s status up in the air because of his ankle injury, there is just no way you can risk waiting until Monday night to see if he is a go.  That is of course unless you’re comfortable starting Alex Smith against the Steelers D or Charlie Batch as your QB in the fantasy playoffs.

The matchups are obviously bad for these two RBs whose teams are facing each other this week, but let’s also point that Mendenhall has not been very good this year and Gore has not been very good lately.  Mendenhall has just one game with more than 70 yards rushing, and Gore is averaging less than eight fantasy points per game over his last four games.

Seattle gives up and average amount of fantasy points to opposing running backs, but they mainly struggle with backs who can do damage in the passing game.  Barber with his five catches this season is not that type of back.  Moreover, it’s entirely possible that Khalil Bell sees a little more work this week after Barber’s two big blunders essentially cost Chicago a win last week.

There are multiple reasons to be wary of Dez this week.  First of all, he’s just inconsistent.  He has had 14 targets and one target in the last two weeks.  With Dez, Miles Austin, and Laurent Robinson all on the field at the same time, there may not be enough to go around each week.  And Robinson and Austin are the guys who get a steady amount of looks each week, while Dez is more of the home run threat.

Second, Tampa Bay’s run D is uglier than Arnold Schwarzenegger’s mistress.  A lot of the Cowboy’s offensive production figures to come from Felix Jones.  There’s just too much risk of getting nothing from Dez for me to feel comfortable enough playing him in the fantasy playoffs.

What the hell happened to Sam Bradford?  Yeah, he’s playing hurt and his offensive line isn’t necessarily healthy either, but he has been downright atrocious this year.  This is less of a knock on Lloyd and more a statement that he’s just too risky of a start with Bradford’s current level of play.

Hernandez is a quality tight end, but it’s hard to project him getting into the end zone with Gronkowski hogging all the touchdowns.  Not to mention Denver being pretty stingy against the tight end as they’ve allowed the second fewest amount of yards to tight ends.

As you might imagine, Pittsburgh is pretty good at stopping tight ends, so this matchup is not ideal.  But more importantly, Davis just hasn’t been very good this year.  He’s 13th in fantasy points among tight ends, and he has three fantasy points in three straight games.