2011 Fantasy Football, Week 5 Sit ‘Em Start ‘Em: Don’t Buy The Fitzpatrick Hype
Fitzpatrick has had three good games and one bad game. The good games all came against teams that rank in the top ten of
most fantasy points allowed to opposing QB’s. The bad game came against a team that ranks in the top ten for fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing QB’s. This week Fitzy faces a Philly team whose secondary has been of the middle-of-the-road variety so far, but everyone expects that secondary is capable of performing, and will perform, at a higher level.The criticisms of Fitzpatrick’s actually physical ability to play QB are that he’s not accurate enough and doesn’t have a big arm. Last year he was 27th in the NFL in completion percentage, and, though he’s improved, he’s still not among the elite in that category at 13th so far this season. As far as arm strength is concerned, he ranked outside the top 20 in yards per completion last season and is only 18th so far this season.
Everyone seems to have bought in completely on Fitzpatrick, but it’s not overtly clear why that is. Sure, there have been some big games, but there have been some bad ones, too. With questions about his physical tools, a spotty track record, and a potentially difficult opposing secondary, Fitzpatrick isn’t an automatic start, even during the bye weeks.
QB Start: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (Week 5: Green Bay)
Not that this is breaking news or anything, but Ryan puts up better numbers at home. Specifically, his completion percentage is over six points higher in the dome, his yards per attempt mark is full yard higher, and he’s got the same amount of TD’s and ten less INT’s than he does on the road in four fewer games played.
This week he faces a Green Bay team that forces their opponents to throw from behind in excess and isn’t very good at stopping their opponent from doing so successfully. They allow an average of 21.8 fantasy points per game to opposing QB’s and have allowed the second most passing yards so far.
RB Sit: LeGarrette Blount, Tampa Bay Buccaneers(Week 5: @ San Francisco)
I love LeGarrette Blount. So much so that I overpaid for him in more than one draft, and I might even be willing to let him sucker punch me. But his matchup against the Niners this week has to make you think about leaving him on your bench. With six teams on bye, it’s entirely possible (if not likely) that you don’t have the option of not using Blount this week. However, if Blount is your RB2 and you drafted some other guys late (i.e. Tolbert, Ingram, Starks, Addai, McGahee, or even
Isaac Redman), this might be the week to put them to use.San Francisco’s run D has been absolutely stifling to this point. They’ve allowed only 27 total fantasy points to opposing RB’s(*), and they haven’t allowed a single rushing touchdown. And it isn’t like they haven’t played a team with a decent back. They shut down McCoy on the ground (although the Eagles didn’t elect to run much) as well as Benson, Jones (Felix), and Lynch. Throw in the short week after 25 carries on Monday night, and Blount may not be able to get much done on the West Coast.
For comparison’s sake, the Eagles have allowed at least 26 fantasy points to opposing RB’s in every single week.
RB Start: New Orleans running backs (Week 5: @ Carolina)
For starters, Carolina’s run defense is atrocious. They got torched by Forte last week, gave up 100+ yards to MJD before that, and allowed 100 yards and a score to teams with marginal backs like Beanie Wells and James Starks.
Darren Sproles is the best of the bunch as he has double digit fantasy points in each of the first four weeks. He’s getting it done on the ground and through the air and is basically playing like Reggie Bush will always wish he could. Mark Ingram is also an RB2 in ten-team leagues for the week as far as I’m concerned. Carolina should be able to somewhat keep pace with the Saints, allowing for New Orleans to continue running the ball for the entirety of the game. There is a pretty decent chance Ingram finds the end zone as a result. Pierre Thomas is also an option in deeper leagues or possibly as a flex play in shallower leagues for those who are missing RB’s because of the byes. There’s more than a non-existent chance that Thomas gets a TD this week.
WR Sit: Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints(Week 5: @ Carolina)
As mentioned above, Carolina is particularly vulnerable on the ground making it likely New Orleans scores via the ground game this week. Moreover, the Saints now have Jimmy Graham as a very reliable red zone option. There’s also the general frustrating boom-or-bust nature of owning Saints receivers. Even when Colston has been on the field week in and week out, you have never known when other receivers would get all the looks and Colston would put up a stinker. But with Colston in just his second game since returning from a broken collarbone, there’s an added element of uncertainty with him this week. You probably need to see him play a full game of snaps and produce on some level before reinserting him into your starting lineup.
WR Start: Sidney Rice, Seattle Seahawks (Week 5: @ New York Giants)
When doing these start/sit articles, you kind of go through a checklist of things with each player. For example, this is the list I used to determine whether Rice was the receiver with which I wanted to put myself out there:
Has he performed well to this point: Check. Double digit performance in both starts.
Is he facing a non-threatening secondary: Check. Giants are injury depleted in the secondary and have allowed an average of over 20 points per game to opposing WR’s.
Will his team be throwing throughout the game: Check. Rice’s Seahawks are playing a superior opponent and should have to throw the ball from behind.
TE Sit: Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons (Week 5: Green Bay)
Here is what I wrote about Gonzalez when I recommended you sit him in last week’s start/sit article:
**Gonzalez had his lowest reception total since 2002 last season and his lowest yardage total since he became a starter in 1998. He has also managed only six touchdown catches in each of the last two seasons. Two of his touchdowns this season came against an Eagles team that has a tough time defending tight ends. With all that in mind, it’s easy to see that Gonzalez will not be able to sustain his current touchdown rate. And his value is tied to those touchdowns as the points accumulated via his three touchdown catches account for more than half of his fantasy points this season (24 of 45). When the touchdown faucet gets turned off, Gonzalez’s value will be minimal.**
I’m sticking to my guns on this one, even if it means I shoot myself in the foot.
TE Start: Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions (Week 5: @ Detroit)
Since I went with Gonzalez as my TE “sit” for the second consecutive week, I’m going to recommend starting Pettigrew for the second consecutive week as well. In fact, since I’m lazy, here’s what I wrote about Pettigrew last week:
**It seems that I can’t write a single fantasy football article without making at least one reference to ProFootballFocus.com, and this article is no different. They guys at PFF have developed a set of criteria in order to determine which TE’s will put up consistent numbers going forward. With Aaron Hernandez and Antonio Gates out, only seven TE’s meet the criteria, and Pettigrew is one of them (along with Gronkowski, Graham, Keller, Witten, Finley, and Davis).**
Pettigrew also has a nice matchup against a Chicago defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends so far. They’ve allowed at least five receptions and at least 70 yards to opposing tight ends in each week this season.
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who would probably list Tony Gonzalez as a “sit” for the remainder of the season if he was the regular author of the start/sit article. You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.
(September 24, 2011 – Photo by Rick Stewart/Getty Images North America)
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