2011 National League East Pitching Preview: Mike Pelfrey & The New York Mets
As for Johan Santana, who will likely miss the first half of the season recovering from shoulder surgery, it will be tough to determine what ADP (average draft position) is suitable. My advice, though, don’t shoot for Johan. Let someone else take him in the draft. Unless it’s a very late round and you’re already secure with your starting pitchers, then it’s OK to take a risk and hopefully use him in the second half.
As for his teammates, there isn’t too much going for them. Just know your leagues scoring, and then decide if you could use any of the Mets starters in 2011.
Mike Pelfrey won 15 games last year, had an ERA below 4.00, and pitched 200+ innings. In 2008, he won 13 games, had an ERA below 4.00, and pitched 200+ innings. It looks to me this is the type of stuff you’ll see from Pelfrey this year.
In my opinion, 2009 was a fluke year (5.00+ ERA in about 185 innings). We can all say Mike Pelfrey is not a strike out pitcher. And his 2009 season, his fluke year in my eyes, was his only season with a ground ball to fly ball ratio above 1.0 (it was 1.06 to be exact). Since 2006, Pelfrey’s ground ball to fly ball ratio has been 0.99 or lower, and when you consider all the outs involved for over 200 innings of work, that can be the difference between a 5.03 ERA (2009) and 3.66 ERA (2010).
With 11 no decisions in 2010, Niese should be able to win some more games next year, especially with a healthy lineup to start the season. As for projecting Niese’s 2011 stats, I think we will see similar numbers. I expect 190 IP, 13-10, 3.80 ERA, 180 K. And what the heck, throw in another mid-June one hitter against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
What the (expletive) happened to R.A. Dickey during the winter of 2009? In his full seasons (13 starts in 2003, 15 starts in 2004, and 14 starts in 2008), Dickey had a combined 5.30 ERA. His lowest WHIP (1.48) was in 2003, and hitters managed to hit .292, .311, and .284 against him in 2003, 2004, and 2008 respectively. His move to the National League came with tremendous fortune however.
In his first season with the Mets, Dickey went 11-9 in 26 starts. His 2.84 ERA was 10th in the majors and his 73% quality start percentage was 15th. He didn’t begin his season until the third week in May, but was pure fantasy goodness from there on. He consistently goes late into the game, ranking 14th in the majors for average number of innings pitched per start (6.7). Looking ahead to 2011, I can see a full season out of R.A. Dickey. Something like 14-11, 200 IP, 3.10 ERA, and 120 K (keep in mind, he is NOT a strikeout pitcher) looks like a definite possibility.
The fifth spot in the Mets rotation will be battled for during spring training. One time Mets wonder Oliver Perez, Johnny-come-lately Chris Capuano, rookie September starter Dillon Gee, and utility pitcher Pat Misch will all fight for a spot in the 2011 rotation. Chances are, whichever guy gets to be a starting pitcher, he won’t be a great fantasy player.
The Not So Amazins (CBS Sports Overall Starting Pitcher Rankings):Mike Pelfrey (58), R.A. Dickey (72), Johan Santana (85), Jonathon Niese (87)
Where do these four fall in your 2011 fantasy baseball overall pitcher rankings?
Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter @TheFantasyFix
Written by Tyler Becker exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com. Look for Tyler’s weekly insight into MLB, NFL, & NHL. You can follow Tyler on Twitter @FantasyProdigy
Want to read Tyler's other National League East previews to prepare for your 2011 fantasy baseball draft? Read about the Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves & Florida Marlins.
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