2012 Fantasy Baseball: A look at AL Only ADP Overdrafted/Underdrafted
NOTES: All ADP data is taken from MockDraftCentral.com, as ESPN.com has yet to open its mock drafts to the public. Additionally, I have decided not to include Prince Fielder (currently being selected as the 51st player in these mocks) as he’s currently a glitch in the system, and that is not his actual spot in these ADP’s. If it is, Fielder is the best pick in the world right now.
Overdrafted: Derek Jeter: (SS, Yankees) Overall: 54th player selected. ADP: 58.00
Underdrafted: Jhonny Peralta (SS, Tigers) Overall: 84th player select. ADP: 89.00
At this point, calling Mr. Jeter a “Captain” is tantamount to calling Mr. Sanders a Colonel: it’s essentially a figure head position. Does my Red Sox fanhood have something to do with my visceral hate of Derek Jeter? Probably, but so does general logic. I’m going to throw out two blind resumes here:
PLAYER A: 131 Games, .297 AVG, 6 HR, 84 Runs, 61 RBIs, 16 Steals.
PLAYER B: 146 Games, .299 AVG, 21 HR, 68 Runs, 86 RBIs, 0 Steals.
Which guy would you rather have? Their stats are relatively similar: player B has 9 more combined runs / RBIs, and has 15 more homers, whereas player A has 16 more steals. To me, it’s not even close; I’d take Player B. Now, Jhonny Peralta might regress, but so will Jeter due to age, and Peralta’s team just added Prince Fielder to their lineup while Jeter’s added Raul Ibanez (who is still just Raul freakin’ Ibanez despite his supposed Illuminati ties). So I ask you: why is Jhonny Peralta going 30 picks after Jeter? The only possible explanation is that Jeter is ALWAYS overrated. Case closed, if you don’t touch the captain and grab Jhonny Peralta, you’ll be quick on your way to AL only league dominance.
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Overdrafted: Jeremy Hellickson: (SP, Rays) Overall: 60th player selected. ADP: 62.33
Underdrafted: Ubaldo Jimenez (SP, Indians) Overall: 72nd player selected. ADP: 77.00
Hellickson won the Rookie of the Year award, and was a very good prospect, but the guy is just really overrated, so I’ve decided to compare him to a player who I believe is being vastly underdrafted: Ubaldo Jimenez. The dichotomy between Jimenez’s value and Hellickson’s value shows that sabermetrics aren’t totally in the baseball zeitgeist yet, and because of that a prudent fantasy owner can find huge value in luck-based inefficiencies. Here are some stats to prove it:
Ubaldo: 8.60 K/9, 3.73 BB/9, .314 BABIP, 65.0 LOB%, 3.71 xFIP, 4.68 ERA.
Hellickson: 5.57 K/9, 3.43 BB/9, .223 BABIP, 82.0 LOB%, 4.72 xFIP, 2.95 ERA.
In almost every controllable way, Ubaldo Jimenez is more talented and better than Hellickson, but luck-wise each of these pitchers are polar opposites: Ubaldo got nearly as unlucky as possible, with an xFIP nearly a full 1.00 lower than his ERA; Hellickson was quite literally as lucky as possible (he was the luckiest player in the league when comparing xFIP vs ERA among starting pitchers), with an xFIP 1.77 points higher than his ERA. If things had played out as they do on average, Ubaldo would have been better than Hellickson in every stat but WHIP, and he’d beat him in K’s by a huge margin. All signs point to Ubaldo being better than Hellickson this year, so while Ubaldo is going 12 picks after the young Rays hurler, he will be considered significantly underdrafted while Hellickson will be significantly overdrafted.
Overdrafted: Mark Reynolds (3B, Orioles) Overall: 56th player selected. ADP: 59.00
Underdrafted: Mike Moustakas (3B, Royals) Overall: 105th player selected. ADP: 113.00
Mous was a hot prospect coming into last season, but he seemingly struggled in the majors. I say “seemingly” because rather than legitimately struggle, Mous just got absurdly unlucky last year, managing a ridiculously low Home Run per Fly Ball rate of 4.2%, worse than world-renowned sluggers like Emilio Bonifacio, Cliff Pennington, Coco Crisp and Yuniesky Betancourt. If Moustakas’ HR/FB rebounds to a league-average 10 or so he would nearly quadruple his HR production in a full season, or if it goes up to around 15% as players with his power often do, ous would have been on pace for over 30 Homers in a full season. Yes, there’s a possibility it only rebounds to 8-10%, but than you’re still getting a player who managed a .263 batting average as a rookie. In comparison, Mark Reynolds is going 49 picks ahead of Mike Moustakas right now, and yeah he’s money in the bank for 30+ home runs, but he also hit .221 last season, .198 the season before, and is going to once again be in one of the worst lineups in baseball, a lineup that, in fact, got worse. On the other hand, I like the Royals offense much better than the Orioles’ and I’ll trade 40 or more points in batting average for 10 or so home runs any day, and at 49 picks later, Mike Moustakas is one of the most underdrafted players in the AL only world right now, while Reynolds is going quite a bit too high.
Overdrafted Honorable Mention: Doug Fister, Ricky Romero, Jered Weaver, David Ortiz, Dustin Ackley, Vernon Wells, Justin Verlander
Underdrafted Honorable Mention: Alex Rios, Justin Smoak, Luke Scott, Brandon McCarthy, Jason Kipnis, Torii Hunter, Gavin Floyd, Edwin Encarnacion
By Moe Koltun, exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Read more of Moe’s excellent fantasy insight over at RotoAnalysis.com. Have a fantasy related question? You can follow the site on Twitter @RotoAnalysis or Moe on twitter @moeproblems.
(October 3, 2011 – Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images North America)
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