The All-Star break sucks.  Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday are the only days all year where a game in one of the four major sports isn’t taking place.  But the break does allow us to evaluate both the needs of our fantasy teams and those players who could address them.  Here are six guys that disappointed in the first half and are now owned in less than 50% of ESPN ten-team leagues that could bounce back in a big way in the second half.  If they’re available, they’re solid pickups.  And if someone is still holding onto them, they could be very cheap buy lows.

Jemile Weeks (Oakland Athletics, 29.8% owned)

Out of 155 batters that qualify for the batting title at the break, only 25 have a better walk rate than Weeks’ 10.7% mark.  And of those 25, none have a lower strikeout rate than Weeks.  His improved plate discipline numbers have been largely driven by the fact that Weeks has swung at 8% fewer pitches thrown to him out of the zone.

The main reason Weeks struggled in the first half was basically bad luck on balls in play (.254 BABIP) which has depressed his average (.222).  But based on Weeks’ batted ball profile, we can expect the BABIP luck to turn around.  Of the 80 qualified hitters who have a line drive percentage equal to or better than Weeks’ 21% line drive rate, only one has a lower BABIP.  Line drives go for hits far more often than ground balls and fly balls do, so if Weeks keeps hitting balls on a line, there’s a very good chance his BABIP will normalize.

Adam Lind (Toronto Blue Jays, 25.0% owned)

Since being recalled from AAA, Lind has appeared in all but one of Toronto’s 13 games and started in all but three.  Over that span he has 11 hits in 42 at-bats (.262) with four homeruns, seven runs, and nine RBI.  The reason for his demotion was more bad luck than anything.  His BABIP was unsustainably low, and it will trend upwards in the second half.  As long as Lind gets enough playing time to benefit from the positive regression, he’ll bounce back nicely.

Mark Ellis (Los Angeles Dodgers, 1.6% owned)

When Ellis was healthy and hitting in front of a healthy Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier early in the season, he scored a run once every six plate appearances.  Of the 267 players with at least 160 plate appearances, only six have scored runs at a clip better than one in every six plate appearances.  Ellis returned to the lineup shortly before the break and Kemp and Ethier are set to rejoin the Dodgers right after the break.  If you’re hurting for runs in the roto standings, Ellis could be a huge help.

Gavin Floyd (Chicago White Sox, 45.6% owned)

With his 4.54 ERA at the break, Floyd now has a 4.00+ ERA in each of the last four years.  But his SIERA in each of those seasons has been between 3.70 and 3.83.  With a sample of over 650 innings during that span you have to think Floyd may just be one of the guys whose roto numbers will never be as good as his peripherals.  But the reason I hesitate to draw that conclusion is that the bad luck that has caused his roto numbers to be worse each season has been different.  In 2009 and 2011 an elevated strand rate got him, in 2010 it was BABIP, and this season it has been the home-run-per-fly ball rate.

His strikeout-to-walk ratio is almost three and his swinging strike rate is 10.1% (18th best in the league), so there’s clearly talent there.  All it will take is a bit of good luck or even just the absence of any bad luck for once for Floyd to have a big second half.  Because Floyd has never been a WHIP killer, adding Floyd and hoping for some good luck isn’t too risky of a play.

Bud Norris (Houston Astros, 33.9% owned)

As Norris proved during a five-game stretch spanning from late April to mid-May, he can be a dominant starter.  During that stretch he had a 1.11 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and 9.92 K/9.  But prior to and after that stretch Norris really struggled.  The early struggles can be blamed on bad luck as his BABIP was .330 and his strand rate was 68% in April.  And the later struggles could have been the result of a hip injury than landed Norris on the DL in the middle of July.  His walk rate on the year is consistent with the big improvement he showed in control last year, so the second half may be when we finally see the continued improvement many predicted for Norris in the preseason.

Derek Holland (Texas Rangers, 28.3% owned)

Like Norris, Holland has had moments of brilliance along with severe struggles and an injury of his own.  Now healthy, Holland should be a nice source of wins if you’re hurting in that category while providing an ERA at or a little below 4.00.  If you can afford to add Holland and pick and choose when you start him, look to start him on the road as his ERA is well over a run lower when pitching away from Texas.

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a soon-to-be attorney in Dallas who wishes it didn’t count this time.  But go American League!  You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.

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(June 21, 2012 – Source: Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images North America)