According to the aforementioned Mr. Loade, having Hamels at #1 is “laughable.”  But I think there are plenty of reasons why Cole Hamels should be considered for the top spot.  He has the fifth best K/BB (5.80), fifth best xFIP (2.86), and third best swinging strike rate (13%).  He’s unquestionably an elite option.

But the reason I gave him the top spot had as much to do with the reasons why I couldn’t give the top spot to anyone else.  First of all, his fellow Phillies have a few issues barring them from numero uno.  Roy Halladay is a great pitcher.  But aside from last season, he’s only a moderately above average strikeout pitcher.  He’s pitching more in line with his career averages than his exceptional season last year.  And Cliff Lee has dealt with some injury concerns that scare me off somewhat.

All of the other studs you see toward the top of this list have some red flags. Some guys have extremely low BABIPs (Verlander, Kershaw), others issue too many walks (CC, Price, Felix, Shields), and others have an unsustainably low HR/FB rate (Greinke).

Hamels’ strand rate (82%) is definitely higher than the league norm (72%), but it’s not so much higher than his career norm (77%).  He could definitely get hit with a touch of regression there, but it should only be a minor course correction.

2. Justin Verlander (Detroit Tigers, 100% owned)
3. Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers, 100% owned)
4. Zack Greinke (Milwaukee Brewers, 100% owned)
5. Roy Halladay (Philadelphia Phillies, 100% owned)
6. Cliff Lee (Philadelphia Phillies, 100% owned)
7. CC Sabathia (New York Yankees, 100% owned)
8. Anibal Sanchez (Miami Marlins, 100% owned)

Andy Chiabatta nicely asked me to explain my thought process on my ranking of Anibal, and I’m happy to do so.  Anibal has the 7th best xFIP, 13th best K/9, and the 15th best strikeout-to-walk ratio.  Those are elite numbers at some of the most important categories.  Very few other guys have those numbers, so I definitely think he’s a top ten option.

9. David Price (Tampa Bay Rays, 100% owned)
10. Felix Hernandez (Seattle Mariners, 100% owned)
11. James Shields (Tampa Bay Rays, 100% owned)
12. Jered Weaver (Los Angeles Angels, 100% owned)
13. Matt Cain (San Francisco Giants, 100% owned)
14. Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals, 100% owned)
15. Jordan Zimmermann Washington Nationals, 100% owned)
16. Adam Wainwright (St. Louis Cardinals, 97.7% owned)
17. Dan Haren (Los Angeles Angels, 100% owned)
18. Tim Lincecum (San Francisco Giants, 100% owned)
19. Matt Garza (Chicago Cubs, 100% owned)
20. C.J. Wilson (Los Angeles Angels, 100% owned)
21. Bud Norris (Houston Astros, 94% owned)

Mr. Loade also took exception to Norris being listed this high.  But I stand firmly by this ranking.

Norris has a league best ERA of 0.35 so far in May.  Such a pace is obviously unsustainable as his BABIP for the month is .226 and his strand rate is an insane 97.4% (which is how you allow only one earned run and have an ERA of 0.35).  But the good luck in May basically just made up for Bud’s bad luck in April where his BABIP was .330 and his strand rate was 68%.  This is an excellent example of how things tend to regress to the mean sooner rather than later.  

As long as his luck remains mostly neutral, Norris is capable of giving you an ERA in the mid-3.00’s with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of about three.  Last year only 21 qualified starters had an ERA below 3.50 along with a K/BB over 3.00.  So if Norris has shown he’s capable of doing both of those things, then 21st seems like a pretty reasonable ranking to me.

22. Yu Darvish (Texas Rangers, 100% owned)

Darvish has walked more than five batters per nine innings so far in his young career.  Only four other qualified starters have a BB/9 over five, and they all have an xFIP of 4.27 or higher.  Darvish’s xFIP is below four and will likely stay there because of his ability to miss bats (10.13 K/9) that the other walk-heavy pitchers haven’t displayed, but until he cuts down on the walks he won’t be the top tier pitcher his 3.05 ERA indicates that he is.

23. Josh Johnson (Miami Marlins, 99.5% owned)
24. Madison Bumgarner (San Francisco Giants, 100% owned)
25. Brandon Beachy (Atlanta Braves, 100% owned)
26. Max Scherzer (Detroit Tigers, 81.9% owned)

Scherzer is another guy that Andy Chiabatta asked me to explain my reasoning on.

Scherzer has an incredible capacity to strike batters out.  His career K/9 is just shy of nine, and this year it’s an insane 11.65.  When I look for things that might indicate whether an increase over his career average is sustainable, I see that his four-seam fastball velocity is up a tick, his slider velocity is up significantly, and he’s added a fourth pitch.  That fourth pitch, which he has never thrown before this year, is a two-seam fastball that he throws even harder than his already plus four-seamer.  He won’t end up with a K/9 over eleven, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it was close to or over ten.

27. Gio Gonzalez (Washington Nationals, 100% owned)
28. Jeff Samardzija (Chicago Cubs, 96.5% owned)
29. Shaun Marcum (Milwaukee Brewers, 100% owned)
30. Ian Kennedy (Arizona Diamondbacks, 100% owned)
31. Tommy Hanson (Atlanta Braves, 100% owned)
32. Jake Peavy (Chicago White Sox, 100% owned)
33. Yovani Gallardo (Milwaukee Brewers, 100% owned)
34. Mat Latos (Cincinnati Reds, 92.9% owned)
35. Jaime Garcia (St. Louis Cardinals, 94.9% owned)
36. Doug Fister (Detroit Tigers, 96.7% owned)
37. Josh Beckett (Boston Red Sox, 98.1% owned)
38. Ryan Dempster (Chicago Cubs, 98.2% owned)
39. Edwin Jackson (Washington Nationals, 62.6% owned)
40. Lance Lynn (St. Louis Cardinals, 100% owned)
41. Jonathon Niese (New York Mets, 14.9% owned)
42. Colby Lewis (Texas Rangers, 100% owned)
43. Wandy Rodriguez (Houston Astros, 100% owned)
44. Brandon Morrow (Toronto Blue Jays, 100% owned)

Commenter Reed had this to say about Morrow:  “Morrow is way too low here. His GB rate is elite. He's getting Ks and is ridiculously efficient. Top 20 I think.”

While I thank Reed for reading and always appreciate any feedback, I have to disagree.  First of all, his groundball rate is 43%.  That’s average at best.  He’s still getting strikeouts at a rate moderately above league average, but it’s nowhere near the 10.00 K/9 to which we have grown accustomed.  A drop in fastball and slider velocity has led to a swinging strike rate almost 3% lower than his career average and raises a legitimate concern about his ability to return to elite strikeout territory.  Thankfully, the drop in Ks has been accompanied by a drop in BBs, but it’s not enough to offset it for my taste.

Morrow’s BABIP is way below average at .217 and his strand rate is about 8% higher than his career and the league averages.  There’s some regression coming at some point.  Combined with the curious alteration in skill set, I’m just very cautious about Morrow.  I don’t know how anyone can accurately predict what will happen with him going forward.  And I’m just not a fan of that level of uncertainty.

45. Derek Holland (Texas Rangers, 67.9% owned)
46. Jon Lester (Boston Red Sox, 100% owned)
47. Johnny Cueto (Cincinnati Reds, 100% owned)
48. Jeremy Hellickson (Tampa Bay Rays, 100% owned)
49. Mike Minor (Atlanta Braves, 36% owned)
50. Dillon Gee (New York Mets, 1.1% owned)
51. Jason Hammel (Baltimore Orioles, 79% owned)
52. Chris Capuano (San Diego Padres, 100% owned)
53. James McDonald (Pittsburgh Pirates, 90.4% owned)
54. Anthony Bass (San Diego Padres, 19.9% owned)
55. Johan Santana (New York Mets, 100% owned)
56. Joe Blanton (Philadelphia Phillies, 20.4% owned)
57. Gavin Floyd (Chicago White Sox, 82.6% owned)
58. A.J. Burnett (Pittsburgh Pirates, 7.2% owned)
59. Ricky Romero (Toronto Blue Jays, 100% owned)

Mr. Loade took exception to Garza being ranked this low as well, but I’m just going to repost what I posted in the original version of this article because I think it pretty clearly explains why I’m so down on Romero.

In the 600+ innings we saw out of Romero to start his career, it looked pretty clear that he had slightly above average strikeout abilities and only average control while keeping the ball on the ground at a well above average rate.  According to xFIP and SIERA, that combination of skills was good for a pitcher with an ERA in the high 3.00’s with a WHIP just under 1.30.  But then Romero got some good BABIP and strand rate luck in 2011 which led to him being drafted among the top 100 players in most ESPN.com drafts.

But so far this season Romero’s previous strikeout-to-walk abilities have left him.  His swinging strike rate has dipped and his K/9 has dipped below average along with it.  His BB/9 has ballooned all the way up to 4.55.  But thanks to continued BABIP luck (.240 this year), Romero’s ERA is only at 3.64.  It’s entirely possible that he regains some of his previous strikeout and control abilities, but if his luck runs out before that happens, he could be a disaster.

60. Matt Moore (Tampa Bay Rays, 83.7% owned)

Not ranked: Chris Sale (Chicago White Sox, 99.8% owned)

As mentioned in the Morrow blurb above, I’m not a huge fan of uncertainty.  And so far this season Sale has been moved to the closer role and then almost immediately back to the rotation with discussion of an elbow injury mixed in.  The MRI came back negative on his elbow, but I just don’t like the whole situation.  Where there is smoke there is fire, you know?

The kid obviously has great stuff and has done well in the rotation, but the fact that he’s going to pitch significantly more innings as a member of the rotation than he did last year is worrisome.  Especially when there’s already some indication that his elbow may be bothering him.  If we don’t hear anything about it over the next few weeks, I’m sure Sale will crack this list.  But I’d rather be safe than sorry.

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a soon-to-be attorney in Dallas who is thrilled when people disagree with him as it’s just another reason to argue.  You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.