Wainwright is slated to return, so the Cardinals obviously look to have a better starting staff than last year. The rest of the staff returns and the Cardinals now have plenty of depth at starting pitcher in case of injury or the need to trade a starter.

Wainwright becomes the ace and since his surgery was before the season, I wouldn’t shy away from him in fantasy. Of course, pay attention to how he looks in spring training, but if all reports are fine, I’d trust him as my fantasy ace.

He had an ERA below 2.70 in his last two seasons and has been at 3.70 or below in all four of his seasons as a starter. His ERA dropped in each of those seasons, and although I don’t see that trend continuing with him going below his 2010 ERA of 2.42, I don’t expect it to rise over 3.00 either.

I also don’t worry about St. Louis pitchers taking a big hit in wins with Albert Pujols gone (or Tony LaRussa either) because the Cardinals have always been one of the top organizations in terms of replacing talent and remaining competitive.

Chris Carpenter’s ERA has risen each of the past two years, but when 3.45 is the highest ERA of that span, I don’t worry about him making much of a dropoff at age 36. He remains one of the top targets for starting pitchers in fantasy.
Jaime Garcia has been great in both of his full seasons in the majors, with 13 wins each season and an ERA just over 3.10. He’s also been injury free and only 25 years old, so in that regard he is less of a risk than Wainright and Carpenter and his ceiling is higher, but he doesn’t have the track record of the two aces.

Kyle Lohse has been mentioned in trade talks because of St. Louis’ depth in the rotation and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him moved to a team that suffers an injury in spring training or feels it needs to upgrade its rotation.

Lohse had a career-best 3.39 ERA to go with 14 wins last year, but his track record makes it unlikely he will repeat those numbers. I’d stay away unless he falls late in a draft or the bidding doesn’t reach double digits in an auction league.
Jake Westbrook was a disappointment last year in his first full season in the National League with a 4.66 ERA. He will get better, but his career ERA is 4.34 so I don’t expect him to go much lower than that.

Lance Lynn could be a nice pick-up if he is cheap because he is likely the next in the rotation in case of trade or injury. A former top prospect for the Cards, he had a 3.12 ERA mostly in relief last year, but I would be he is starting by June and could be a nice back-of-the-rotation guy.
Kyle McClellan is another candidate to move from the bullpen to the rotation, but even if that happens, I’m not targeting him on draft day.

Written by Steve Mims exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Follow Steve on Twitter @nwsportscards

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(September 23, 2010 – Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images North America)