2012 Fantasy Baseball Colorado Rockies Starting Rotation Preview
Now up: the Colorado Rockies.
Jorge de la Rosa has pitched more than 130 innings in a major league season exactly once (185 IP in 2009). The only season in which he recorded an ERA under 4.00 was his 3.51 mark in just 59 innings before injury last year. The small sample size season that was 2011 for de la Rosa was also the only time he has ever finished a season with a WHIP lower than 1.30 (1.19).
Coming off a mediocre 2010 performance in which he only tossed 120 or so innings, de la Rosa was going at the tail end of drafts heading into last year (ADP: 225). And so, coming off a second consecutive injury shortened season, it’s likely the lack-of-control-lefty will go undrafted in many leagues.
But because Day-lah has a K/9 of 8.82 in almost 500 innings as a Rockie, he is absolutely worthy of a draft pick, even in ten-team standard leagues. As a late or even last round flier, you get a lot of upside with Jorge. If (big IF) he can stay healthy, you could be getting 180+ strikeouts from one of your last picks.
And while the K’s won’t come along with an ERA in the low threes, it will likely come with an ERA no higher than four because his SIERA’s the last four seasons have all fallen between 3.80 and 4.00. The big worry is that he’ll kill your WHIP, and his career 4.46 BB/9 justifies that concern. But he did manage a 3.36 BB/9 last season. If he can keep it at or around 3.50, he won’t go all Chad Billingsley on your WHIP.
Speaking of lots of walks, let’s talk about Jhoulys Chacin. While it’s true that it’s easier to avoid walking people in the minors than in the big leagues, Chacin didn’t issue many free passes in the minors (2.48 BB/9 in 373 IP) and has completely lost that ability in the majors (4.18 BB/9 in 342 IP).
The lack of control becomes even more disconcerting when you consider the fact that Chacin was lucky with balls in play last year (.261 BABIP) and still couldn’t post a sub-1.30 WHIP. If that luck doesn’t hold, Chacin may be the WHIP killer you feared de la Rosa would be.
As always, a player’s value all depends on where they’re being drafted. Chacin has been going 194th on MockDraftCentral.com which isn’t wildly unreasonable, but there are better options going behind him (for example, Ricky Nolasco who was wildly unlucky last year).
The rest of the Colorado rotation will be filled out by some combination of the worthless trio of Jason Hammel, Josh Outman, and Guillermo Moscoso or the prospect duo of Drew Pomeranz and Alex White.
White and Pomeranz are both quality prospects, but they are not viable fantasy options right out of the gate. The biggest red flag is that Pomeranz hasn’t thrown a pitch in AAA, and White has only racked up 23 innings at that level. They don’t need extensive time at AAA, but making the jump to the majors straight from AA can be tough. Just ask Kyle Drabek.
Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images North America
Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com. Brett is a law student in Dallas who is glad to be back, baby! You can ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.
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